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2021-22 Other Games

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Post by Dean Murdoch Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:01 pm

up7587 wrote:Pilots tied for 6th place on percentages with USD, a half-game behind BYU.

I used last year's WCC/Pomeroy announcement to look into the AdjWP formula the conference is allegedly going to use for Vegas seeding again this year.

https://wccsports.com/news/2021/2/17/mens-basketball-faraudo-pomeroy-analyzes-kenpom-seedings.aspx

It says strength of schedule and away/home are taken into consideration. Nothing about specific games won or lost, just an overall look at each team's WCC record and how difficult their conference schedules were.

I know I said elsewhere that the Pilots .500 would be considered greater than USD's .500 because of the strength of UP's road win over USF, but I think I was looking at it wrong. USD has played a more difficult schedule at this point than the Pilots, with the big factor being USD has played Santa Clara both home and away while the Pilots have yet to face SCU.

So if the Kenpom AdjWP standings come out early this week, look for USD to be 6th and Portland to be 7th.

And in the "problematic" category, San Diego will also finish with a much more difficult schedule. San Diego will have played SMC and SCU twice, while the Pilots will have played those teams once only. The only aspect of UP's schedule that will have been more difficult than USD's is when you look at Gonzaga, who UP faced away and USD had at home.

If I'm interpreting this correctly, the Pilots will need to match USD's win total to have a chance at that 6 seed.
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Post by up7587 Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:07 pm

And yet another reason SCU stinks.

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Post by Dean Murdoch Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:39 pm

up7587 wrote:And yet another reason SCU stinks.

I'm back again.

And I think it's the WCC that is smelling to high heaven here.

Let's say the Pilots win one on the road trip and USD drops both. Pilots finish at 7-7, San Diego at 7-9. I have no clue how the formula works, but USD getting the 6 seed in this instance should be considered a decent possibility due to the reasons in my post above.

The problem I'm having with this scenario is that you could just arbitrarily assign a home loss to BYU and a road loss to SMC to the Pilots to give them the same 7-9 record as USD with the exact same schedule (only difference being the location of the Gonzaga game). In this case, the normal WCC tiebreaker is head-to-head (which was split) and then find the best win (that goes to Portland based on USF win).

But now we're going to trust a calculator to compare a 7-7 team to a 7-9 team with a tougher schedule, rather than use a perfectly good tiebreaking process that has been in place for years in this conference?

I'm actually starting to wonder if this is the reason why the WCC hasn't officially put out the Kenpom standings even though we're barely a week and a half out from the conference tournament starting.

And for the love of God, keep the 16-game schedule and go back to a double round-robin when BYU leaves. This is the conference that most rewards regular season play in the entire NCAA and it should have a balanced schedule. If they move to a 14-game schedule when BYU leaves so Gonzaga can keep bringing in North Alabama and Northwestern State to Spokane, I'm going to lose my mind.
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Post by Sound Voltex Sun Feb 20, 2022 6:00 pm

Out of curiosity, what would be the possible scenarios if the Pilots were to win both games? I assume in the really worst possible case scenario (which I would say is Pilots lose both, Pacific wins all three) they'd still be 7th?
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Post by Dean Murdoch Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:10 am

This from a BYUtv producer.

The Pilots will have to win one on the road trip to pass USD, even if the Toreros lose both.

2021-22 Other Games - Page 6 A2b46f10
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Post by NoPoNeighbor Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:01 pm

Amazing that this is being decided or re-decided a week before the end of the season. WCC is really looking mismanaged and completely corrupt this year.

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Post by up7587 Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:07 pm

Beat Pacific. Then Beat Santa Clara.

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Post by Sound Voltex Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:40 pm

USF kicked Pacific's butt tonight, 104-71, so no lower than a 7th seed is guaranteed.

6th is the ideal seed since it includes an extra day of rest and avoiding the Zags side of the bracket until the championship (if we make it that far). Given BYU's recent close calls though with LMU and Pepperdine the first time around, even 5th(!) is a possible outcome if their opponents are playing loose with nothing to lose at this point.

One game at a time.
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Post by Dean Murdoch Tue Feb 22, 2022 8:48 am

Sound Voltex wrote:Given BYU's recent close calls though with LMU and Pepperdine the first time around, even 5th(!) is a possible outcome if their opponents are playing loose with nothing to lose at this point.

Hahaha can you imagine the collective meltdown in Provo if that happened?

NoPoNeighbor wrote:Amazing that this is being decided or re-decided a week before the end of the season. WCC is really looking mismanaged and completely corrupt this year.

I know it's so tough making policy decisions during this COVID era but yeah, it's a little astonishing. I can't remember the specific game - maybe Farnham during SMC/BYU - but one of the ESPN commentators was talking about seeding for the conference tournament and teams clinching this or that. I'm sitting there wondering if the conference itself even knew who had clinched what at that point.

For the 6/7 seed it'll shake out fairly between Portland and USD so I'm done complaining about it from a Pilots perspective.

But the 3/4/5 boondoggle might cause some uproar. Would the WCC really give Santa Clara at 10-5 the nod over USF at 10-6 based on superior W/L percentage even though USF swept the season series with SCU, and SCU didn't play BYU or Portland away like USF did?
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Post by Sound Voltex Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:37 am

Dean Murdoch wrote:But the 3/4/5 boondoggle might cause some uproar. Would the WCC really give Santa Clara at 10-5 the nod over USF at 10-6 based on superior W/L percentage even though USF swept the season series with SCU, and SCU didn't play BYU or Portland away like USF did?

Sounds like USF isn't happy about it either.

Watch postgame with Pat. Golden is (rightfully) questioning why some teams are able to declare no-contest for previously cancelled games (e.g., SCU not traveling to Portland) and the Dons are being forced to play them (e.g., at UOP on Monday). Also is clearly pissed about what the league has said (or not said) with respect to tie-breakers in an unbalanced schedule.

https://www.reddit.com/r/usfdons/comments/svca9p/golden_clearly_pissed_about_wcc_scheduling/

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Post by NoPoNeighbor Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:12 pm

Dean Murdoch wrote:Hahaha can you imagine the collective meltdown in Provo if that happened?
Personally, I’m rooting for BYU to finish 7th, behind both UP and USD:

UP: 8-6 (.571) — or even 7-7 (.500)
USD: 8-8 (.500)
BYU: 7-8 (.467)

All it would take is the two worst teams beating BYU in Provo this week. I can’t imagine a better end to the season!

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Post by Dean Murdoch Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:29 am

https://kslsports.com/480385/byu-basketball-ncaa-tournament-resume-mark-pope-non-conference-game/

As annoying as it's been for the Pilots to have lost two home games this year, this is smart on BYU's part. As of now they're essentially betting their entire at-large status on one Saturday game in Vegas, and even that might not be enough to get them back on the right side of the bubble.
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Post by Geezaldinho Wed Feb 23, 2022 11:14 pm

Dean Murdoch wrote:https://kslsports.com/480385/byu-basketball-ncaa-tournament-resume-mark-pope-non-conference-game/

As annoying as it's been for the Pilots to have lost two home games this year, this is smart on BYU's part. As of now they're essentially betting their entire at-large status on one Saturday game in Vegas, and even that might not be enough to get them back on the right side of the bubble.


Started the conference schedule short games.

This will be fun to see how the commish allows BYU to not fulfill conference games and allow an extra OOC game instead.
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Post by up7587 Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:45 pm

02/24 games, it's pretty easy to pick a side in most of them:
GU @ USF, in a big opportunity for the Dons to cement an at-large bid. 6pm, ESPN2. Go Dons.
SMC @ USD. Go Gaels.
LMU @ BYU. Go Lions.
SCU @ PU. Go Waves. SCU against Anybody, Go Anybody.

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Post by Sound Voltex Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:57 pm

2021-22 Other Games - Page 6 Leu10

BYU's Seneca Knight is the other aforementioned player.


Last edited by Sound Voltex on Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by up7587 Thu Feb 24, 2022 6:59 pm

GU smoking hot tonight. First half they've hit 7 of 10 3's and are shooting 67.7% overall. Lead USF 52-42.

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Post by up7587 Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:19 pm

up7587 wrote:02/24 games, it's pretty easy to pick a side in most of them:
GU @ USF, in a big opportunity for the Dons to cement an at-large bid. 6pm, ESPN2. Go Dons.
SMC @ USD. Go Gaels.
LMU @ BYU. Go Lions.
SCU @ PU. Go Waves.  SCU against Anybody, Go Anybody.

GU rolled USF 89-73
SMC topped USD 60-46
BYU whomped LMU 79-59
SCU beat PU 89-73

The most important for Pilots was SMC's win over USD. BYU is 8-6. Pilots are 7-6. USD is 7-8. One more to go.

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Post by NoPoNeighbor Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:01 pm

So if UP and PU both win on Saturday, that would give the Pilots a better winning percentage than BYU. Would we get the higher seed? Somehow I doubt it.

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Post by Geezaldinho Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:29 pm

NoPoNeighbor wrote:So if UP and PU both win on Saturday, that would give the Pilots a better winning percentage than BYU. Would we get the higher seed? Somehow I doubt it.

Had they played us, they would have had the seeding in their hands.
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Post by Sound Voltex Thu Feb 24, 2022 11:30 pm

Apparently this is the current tournament seeding as it stands. Although if we're going purely by conference win % then shouldn't SCU-USF and USD-UP be switched?

2021-22 Other Games - Page 6 Fmbkmy10
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Post by Dean Murdoch Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:01 am

There is no tiebreaker on the planet that would put 7-6 Portland behind 7-8 San Diego.

At worst they could both be considered equal with seven wins, but then the Pilots’ win over USF should put them into 6th.

I wouldn’t trust anything that doesn’t come from the conference office. Heck, they might not even know yet.
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Post by canadagael Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:37 am

Sound Voltex wrote:Apparently this is the current tournament seeding as it stands. Although if we're going purely by conference win % then shouldn't SCU-USF and USD-UP be switched?

2021-22 Other Games - Page 6 Fmbkmy10

If I’m not mistaken, this graphic was shown during the first half of the SMC game, prior to last night’s results.

Crazy how we’re two days away from conference play being completed, and none of us know the standings.
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Post by Dean Murdoch Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:17 am

BREAKING, the WCC has finally figured out a fair way to seed 3 through 7 for Vegas.

2021-22 Other Games - Page 6 Wcc10
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Post by canadagael Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:11 pm

Dean Murdoch wrote:BREAKING, the WCC has finally figured out a fair way to seed 3 through 7 for Vegas.

2021-22 Other Games - Page 6 Wcc10

Who do BYU fans blame here when they lose? The wheel? Drew Carey? Gravity?
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Post by NoPoNeighbor Fri Feb 25, 2022 1:31 pm

canadagael wrote:Who do BYU fans blame here when they lose? The wheel? Drew Carey? Gravity?
Ohhhhh, I’m so sorry. The answer we were looking for is, “WCC schools play in high school gyms.” Thanks for playing.

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