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2021-2022 Schedule/Season

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Post by Geezaldinho Sun Nov 21, 2021 11:05 pm

Hawaii got its first win today, defeating the Portland State Vikings 71-68
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Post by Adam Mon Nov 22, 2021 6:22 am

DoubleDipper wrote:The Pilots eased off the throttle in the 4th quarter with the starters acting as cheer leaders and coasted to a 80-54 finish over Prairie View A&M in Honolulu...

And maybe best of all, McKelle Meek and MJ Bruno made their first appearances of the season after coming back from injury with MJ getting her first point as a collegian.    cheers
2021-2022 Schedule/Season - Page 3 Hawaii17

Emily Sewell also notched her first 4 College points.

They also officially won the tournament, being presented with the trophy 👏

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Post by DoubleDipper Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:20 am

Geezaldinho wrote:Hawaii got its first win today, defeating the Portland State Vikings 71-68
And it was PSU's first loss...they are now 3-1...but they scored 30 points in the 4th quarter alone, so they are capable of putting up big numbers.

UP is going to have step up their defense when they play in the Viking Pavilion on December 12 as PSU has four starters averaging in double-figures, led by Esmerelda Morales with over 20 per game.
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Post by DoubleDipper Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:36 am

Adam wrote:They also officially won the tournament, being presented with the trophy 👏
Kind of a strange tournament, but always nice to go home with the hardware.

Missouri was originally scheduled to be part of the tournament that would include 3 games in 3 days for each team, but I for one am glad the team got some well-deserved beach time instead of risking even more injury by pounding up and down the court with little rest.

In the mid-30s F this morning in Portland...and no more warm weather games until next year...Mad
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Post by Geezaldinho Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:31 am

DoubleDipper wrote:
And it was PSU's first loss...they are now 3-1...but they scored 30 points in the 4th quarter alone, so they are capable of putting up big numbers.

In division 1 they beat Dixie State and Prarie View and lost to Hawaii.

Their other win is Warner Pacific.
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Post by Adam Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:50 pm

Anyone familiar with this ranking metric / algorithm? Looks like one that needs a lot more games of data to even out anomalies?

https://www.allmysportsteamssuck.com/ncaa-womens-college-basketball-rankings/

Has UP up to 14th after starting season at 168

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Post by DoubleDipper Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:31 pm

Adam wrote:Anyone familiar with this ranking metric / algorithm? Looks like one that needs a lot more games of data to even out anomalies?

https://www.allmysportsteamssuck.com/ncaa-womens-college-basketball-rankings/

Has UP up to 14th after starting season at 168
Yes, I have seen it, but as it made no sense to me, I never quoted it or referred to it when writing about upcoming games.

For instance, Stanford is #122 and UP is #14 Question scratch drunken

We have number of PilotNation contributors who are excellent at math and analytics, perhaps one or two of them can weigh-in.
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Post by Adam Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:39 pm

DoubleDipper wrote:Yes, I have seen it, but as it made no sense to me, I never quoted it or referred to it when writing about upcoming games.

For instance, Stanford is #122 and UP is #14 Question scratch drunken

We have number of PilotNation contributors who are excellent at math and analytics, perhaps one or two of them can weigh-in.

Yeah. Stanford started at 6, but dropped after Texas loss and UP game. The algorithm info suggests it takes into account points margins as compared to expected points margins, not just results, and a cyclical calc of 'who beat who beat who beat who beat...', so its probably just a volatile metric early with only a few games of data.

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Post by DoubleDipper Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:57 pm

From AMSTS Computer Rankings
The ranking system factors in the entire body of work of a team, as well as the team’s opponent’s body of work, and the team’s opponent’s opponent’s body of work, on and on. The suggestion that a team cannot lose to a team that is worse than themselves is flawed, and using the 2015 NCAA Football season as an example, let’s take a look at using that logic to justify Otterbein University, a Division 3 school, being the best college football team in the nation, (better than Alabama.)
2021-2022 Schedule/Season - Page 3 Screen76

Therefore, Otterbein was better than Alabama in 2015 as shown in 27 rounds by a combined score of 840-564. Shocked

Perhaps up7587 or dholcome can come to our rescue on this... Crying or Very sad
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Post by Geezaldinho Mon Nov 22, 2021 6:39 pm

Three things:

1) Pay attention to what the website tells you.
The first page is not the current ranking. The first sentence tells you to click on a link to get the ranking updated every 15 minutes.  ( Link )

I did that twice and the first time UP was 56 and a few minutes later were 61, without even shooting a bucket.

2) go read the wiki on the law of large numbers. Most teams have currently played 2-3 games. Oregon has played 5, only 2 of which were represented in the current first page.

The law of large numbers tells you a prediction system is better the more games are played and is best at predicting outcomes after the last game of the season.

The RPI has the same issue, but it’s purpose is not prediction, but rather seeding for the tournament.

3) there is a principle of REALLY large numbers, which says that any result can happen given enough chances. Unexpected things happen all the time, but that doesn’t mean they should be unexpected.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/math-explains-likely-long-shots-miracles-and-winning-the-lottery/

That’s why I consider the lottery a tax on the stupid.


Last edited by Geezaldinho on Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:47 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by DoubleDipper Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:24 pm

Thanks, Geezer.

Yup, I spun the roulette wheel and UP came up #61 and Stanford at #33.

I might just keep spinning all night...it makes much more sense than playing the lottery.  Twisted Evil
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Post by Vegemite Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:21 am

So, now we have established that all algorithms ( or models) are inherently biased is it time to discuss the team and basketball?
What are your thoughts on the merit of playing the next two games as preparation for meeting Oregon at Chiles?

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Post by DoubleDipper Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:34 am

Vegemite wrote:What are your thoughts on the merit of playing the next two games as preparation for meeting Oregon at Chiles?
As a fan, it is not ideal as neither Evergreen St. nor Warner Pacific will offer much of a challenge, but for the coaches and players it could be just what they need.

Coming back from 3 games in California and Hawaii the team could be a little dinged-up, and there is no doubt Coach Meek will want to work on fundamentals and some plays before facing the Ducks.

I don't think there is any coach or player who wouldn't rather play against another team than practice, and I look at these two upcoming games as an opportunity for all the players to get some minutes and continue to jell as a team on the court...they have obviously already done that off the court.
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Post by DoubleDipper Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:37 am

There have been several changes to the times of the upcoming home games, and the times of the WCC games have finally been determined.
https://portlandpilots.com/sports/womens-basketball/schedule

This is the remainder of the preseason schedule:

Nov 28 vs. Evergreen St., 4PM
Nov. 30 vs. Warner Pacific, 7 PM
Dec. 4 vs. Oregon, 6 PM (local TV on the CW)
Dec. 9 vs. CSUN, 7 PM

Dec. 12 at Portland State, 2PM (local TV on the CW)
Dec. 14 vs. Stephen F. Austin, 7 PM
Dec. 20 at Fresno State, 12 noon
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Post by FloridaPilot Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:25 pm

Somewhat related: Stanford just beat the #2-ranked Maryland Terrapins. It’s early so it’s hard to say how the rankings shake out but it’s worth sharing since the Cardinal were a previous opponent.

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Post by Vegemite Sat Nov 27, 2021 5:14 pm

Upsets everywhere over the last week, some very interesting results!

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Post by DoubleDipper Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:08 pm

DoubleDipper wrote:Nov 28 vs. Evergreen St., 4PM
Nov. 30 vs. Warner Pacific, 7 PM
Dec. 4 vs. Oregon, 6 PM (local TV on the CW)
Nice to see quality minutes from Meek and Bruno, both coming back from injury, as all 13 players got playing time in the Pilots 97-49 victory over the Geoducks.

With finals looming the week of December 6, and with UO looming on Saturday, another warm-up game on Tuesday will probably be just what the team needs as they study and practice.
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Post by DoubleDipper Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:42 pm

Eight points in the 4th quarter and 8-36 from behind the arc won't get it done against most teams, but combined with the Pilots' stifling defense it was good enough to down Warner Pacific, 70-49.  

Lucy didn't play (probably out an abundance of caution) and Alex scored 19.

Next up is Oregon on Saturday at 6pm in the Chiles Center,
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Post by Adam Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:08 pm

Yes team has huge potential with the energy and defence and inside presence, but you are right DD outside shooting, as well as turnovers and FT% are three things that will need to improve if they are to realise their potential. Several supporting players having negative +/- in a blowout game is a concern but hopefully the extra minutes go along way to helping them settle into systems and patterns and own nerves etc.

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Post by wrv Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:23 am

Adam wrote:Yes team has huge potential with the energy and defence and inside presence, but you are right DD outside shooting, as well as turnovers and FT% are three things that will need to improve if they are to realise their potential. Several supporting players having negative +/- in a blowout game is a concern but hopefully the extra minutes go along way to helping them settle into systems and patterns and own nerves etc.

If I were coaching Oregon, I would try protecting the paint and let the Pilots clang away from 3. No doubt Graves will be well aware of the Pilot shooting woes.

While I hope the performance against Warner Pacific was aberrant, it appears the Pilots lack consistent outside shooters, with the possible exception of Mulheim. But that may change if Meek can get her act together and shoot like last year. At game end, there was a tendency to indiscriminately cast away. Poor shot selection. Of course when you're up by so many and you're a reserve, why not. NAIA Warner Pacific made strong runs on our reserves as we cast away. We'll see if the shooting woes continue without such a cushion.

Some wild helter skelter turnovers throughout that are something of a bugaboo for this team nearly every time out.

Good luck Saturday, but a better performance will be needed to be competitive.

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Post by Adam Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:37 am

Yeah outside shooting will need improving. Taking Maddies 3s out of the equation, rest of team is 19% 3P% on the season. And season avge of 18 TO per game will need to drop.

So many great signs and aspects to their play too though, so hopefully it comes good by conf play

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Post by Geezaldinho Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:02 pm

Oregon is having its own problems.
They lost to UC Davis 64-57, shot 34%, 22% from the arc, 58% from the charity stripe, and were matched in rebounds in Eugene.

https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2021/12/live-updates-no-18-oregon-womens-basketball-vs-uc-davis.html


https://ucdavisaggies.com/boxscore.aspx?path=wbball&id=19820


Missing three starters, It’s being called the worst loss since Kelly Got to Eugene.


UC Davis isn’t exactly a powerhouse. They and UP have a common opponent in Weber State. They beat Weber by 8, we beat them by 21.
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