2022-23 Around the NCAA

up7587 wrote:Cam Shelton can play some ball.

LMU upsets SMC 78-74. Shelton willed the Lions to a win over SMC in OT.

Crazy conference.

Pepperdine gets its second win over BYU 92-80 going away, then LMU beats the #11 ranked Gaels 78-74 in OT.

Pilots now in 7th place, a half-game behind Pacific and a game behind BYU, who lost at Pepperdine (break up the Waves). Jevon Porter, who broke the Pilots' hearts, scored 30 on BYU.

USF lost to GU, USD lost to SCU, both are a game behind the Pilots.

Last Saturday, LMU lost at USD, the lowest ranked WCC team in Kenpom and the NET. Then they beat SMC, the highest ranked WCC team in those rankings. Crazy conference.

SCU trailed at home by 7 against LMU, but came back and won 71-69 when LMU missed a last second shot. Not a good result for Pilots trying to reach 6th place. Gives SCU their 7th conference win, same as LMU, two more than Pilots.

This is crazy. Portland State beat Northern Arizona on a baseball pass the length of the court with 0.4 seconds left.

https://twitter.com/psuviksMBB/status/1624547655551709185?s=20&t=GNYm02q5e8IKqUpIrrwSWw

up7587 wrote:SCU trailed at home by 7 against LMU, but came back and won 71-69 when LMU missed a last second shot.  Not a good result for Pilots trying to reach 6th place.  Gives SCU their 7th conference win, same as LMU, two more than Pilots.

Yeah, I thought Santa Clara might be a team that the Pilots could very well catch if they could beat them in Chiles next Saturday. Instead they may have just played themselves into a double bye with that win tonight.

Root for Gonzaga, Pepperdine, and USD tonight.

Dean Murdoch wrote:Root for Gonzaga, Pepperdine, and USD tonight.

Feels dirty rooting for GU, but they are playing BYU.

Dean Murdoch wrote:Root for Gonzaga, Pepperdine, and USD tonight.

Well, USF beat PU, and UOP beat USD. So it is not going well for Pilots. And BYU giving GU a battle.

Pilots back into a tie for 7th place with USF, one game behind BYU and 1.5 games behind UOP. I have not tried to model all the possible outcomes with everyone having three or four games to play, but the Pilots are getting close to having to win out to avoid a Thursday game in Las Vegas.

Here's how I see it -
8 wins - Friday
7 wins - coin flip
6 wins - Thursday

As an aside, my wonderful wife says I'm only allowed to go to Vegas in years where the Pilots don't play on Thursday. And that includes this year, it's gonna be a mad scramble to arrange travel plans if they actually pull it off!

I tried doing a deeper dive into standings & tiebreakers but my head started spinning.

I couldn't even figure out who to cheer for between Pacific and USF on Thursday.

Dean Murdoch wrote:I tried doing a deeper dive into standings & tiebreakers but my head started spinning.

I couldn't even figure out who to cheer for between Pacific and USF on Thursday.

Pacific is ahead of us in the standings and USF is tied. If we beat USF later this month we'll have a head-to-head tiebreaker. So root for USF?

All I want for 2023 is byu to finish 7th or lower and sun .500 in WCC play. San Francisco and byu play the final day of the season so that should help the pilots out regardless of who wins if other games go as expected.

In a reversal of SMC's game against UP, the Gaels started fast, outscoring USD 39-20 in the first half before hanging on for the 62-59 win.

After losing to LMU in Spokane, Gonzaga wasn't taking any chances tonight in their 108-65 blowout win over the Lions in LA.

USF won in Stockton, so UP and USF are currently tied for the 7th with records of 5-8, one spot behind 6-7 BYU and behind 6-6 UOP.

With remaining games against SCU, USF, and UOP, UP still has a chance to move up to a Friday second round game in Las Vegas.  

DoubleDipper wrote:USF won in Stockton, so UP and USF are currently tied for the 7th with records of 5-8, one spot behind 6-7 BYU and behind 6-6 UOP.

I think your standings page didn't update! Pacific 6-7, BYU and USF both at 6-8 after last night's games.

Did a deep dive on the standings this morning. The following scenarios make these assumptions: Pacific loses both of their upcoming road games at LMU and SMC, and BYU loses its upcoming road game at BYU. Throw these out the window if a weird result happens in one of those three games.

Scenario 1: Pilots go 0-3
Pilots play USD on Thursday in Vegas, likely as 8 seed.

Scenario 2: Pilots go 1-2
Pilots play Thursday in Vegas, likely as 8 seed but possibly as 7 seed.

Scenario 3: Pilots go 2-1
Pilots start Friday as the 5/6 seed if the one loss is to Santa Clara and the wins are over Pacific and USF. They'll also start Friday if they win any two and USF beats BYU next Saturday.

It's a little more complicated if the Pilots beat SCU, then split that USF/Pacific trip. The only combination of results that would see the Pilots have to start Thursday as the 7 seed would be the Pilots losing to USF and BYU then winning over USF.

Scenario 4: Pilots go 3-0
Start Friday as the 5 seed.

Takeaway: Pilots can lock up a first-round bye with wins in their next two games, as long as Pacific doesn't do something silly and beat LMU or SMC.

Pacific led almost he entire game against LMU, but Cam Shelton made a layup with 7 seconds to go for the LMU 1 point lead, missed and and-one FT, but Leaupepe got the O-rebound and made 1 of 2 FTs for the 90-88 LMU win.

SMC beat BYU 71-65. BYU currently in 7th place at 6-9, with one game left against USF.

Pilots can finish 7-9 by sweeping the upcoming road games. IF that happens, USF and UOP best possible finish is also 7-9, with Pilots having tie-breakers for sweeping them. That should get them the 6th seed.

After a 56 point first half against Pilots, USF managed only 27 at BYU. Trail by 13.

GU hung on and gritted out a tough win over KenPom #283 Chicago St., 104-65. Another schedule enhancer for the Zags because the WCC teams don't prepare them for the NCAA tournament.

Dean Murdoch wrote:This is crazy. Portland State beat Northern Arizona on a baseball pass the length of the court with 0.4 seconds left.

https://twitter.com/psuviksMBB/status/1624547655551709185?s=20&t=GNYm02q5e8IKqUpIrrwSWw

After that bad beat loss, NAU finished second to last in the Big Sky (5-13, 9-22 overall). As the #9 seed, they beat #10 Idaho in a play-in game. Then they faced #1 seed EWU, and won by a point with a 3P at the buzzer. Next they played and beat #4 seed Montana. They'll try to complete their run tonight in a game against #2 seed Montana St. for a berth in the Big Dance.

up7587 wrote:After that bad beat loss, NAU finished second to last in the Big Sky (5-13, 9-22 overall).  As the #9 seed, they beat #10 Idaho in a play-in game.  Then they faced #1 seed EWU, and won by a point with a 3P at the buzzer.  Next they played and beat #4 seed Montana.  They'll try to complete their run tonight in a game against #2 seed Montana St. for a berth in the Big Dance.

Cinderella lost her slipper as #9 NAU was topped by #2 MSU, 85-78.

In the Pac-12 tourney, Oregon St. and Coach Rev concluded their season with a 63-57 loss to ASU. They were tied at the 13:00 mark in the 2nd half, but went cold and the Sun Devils made a 10-point run and held off a late comeback attempt.

In the other games, Colorado beat UW, WSU mercifully ended Cal's season, and Stanford upset Utah.

In the MWC tourney, Marcus Shaver and Boise St. meet UNLV. BSU tied for 2nd in league with Utah St. after they lost their last game to USU. Tonight they'll play as the #2 seed in the Thomas and Mack Center, which give a home court advantage to UNLV.

Remember Deng Dut, the JC player from Australia via Idaho who was coming to UP? He ended up going to Wyoming, and in 2021-22 he appeared in 12 games, made 2 of 20 shots, and played 89 minutes. He then transferred to Southern Utah, where this year he appeared in 7 games, made 2 of 14 shots, and played 70 minutes.