Pilots @ Vikings 7pm Tuesday 11/23 (TV)

by DoubleDipper Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:02 am

Portland St. is 2-1 coming into Tuesday’s 7pm matchup at the Viking Pavilion, but they have played only one D1 opponent, a losing effort to Oregon St. after the Viking led for much of the game, before beating Evergreen St. and George Fox handily at home.

KenPom ranks PSU at #241 on offense and #191 on defense for an overall #221, while the Pilots are #313 and #325 for an overall #320. Before UP’s game against Morgan St. the Pilot were rated as a 12-point underdog to the Vikings and that number has now dropped to 11 with UP given only a 17% chance of winning. PSU favored to win, 77-66 in another fast-paced game.

This city rivalry game will be televised locally on the CW…

by DoubleDipper Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:10 am

Dean Murdoch wrote:326 to 324 in Kenpoms after that. I expected a bigger jump considering Morgan State was favoured going in.

As you know, KenPom is based on statistics, and there is just no metric that measures grit and determination.

UP currently ranks about the same as last year’s team in terms of efficiency on both sides of the ball, and regardless of their win/loss record the Pilots look downright bad on paper. KenPom currently has the Pilots up to #320 as of this morning (#313 on offense and #325 on defense), and last year’s team finished at #321 (#267 and #334).

Sitting close to the action as I do, believe me the determination and skill is obvious, and I think many of the turnovers and fouls are because, except for ASU, the Pilots have been playing high-flying and fast undersized players who swipe and scramble, and generally equal the hustle of this year’s version of the Pilots.

The Pilots are fouling a lot more than the staff expects, but except for the many questionable fouls called on UP’s bigger players, the Pilots have been guilty of some ticky-tacky hand-check fouls because the opposition is moving so fast. On the other hand, the Pilots have been excellent at holding their ground and drawing offensive fouls, and are currently 8th in the nation, shooting 85.7% from the stripe.

by DoubleDipper Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:44 pm

I don't know if there is an "official" name to UP's rivalry with PSU, but PSU's athletic department is calling it the "City Clash."

"City Clash Pits Vikings Against Crosstown Rival Pilots"

https://goviks.com/news/2021/11/22/mens-basketball-city-clash-pits-vikings-against-crosstown-rival-pilots.aspx

by up7587 Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:10 pm

goviks,com wrote:HE "JUMPED SHIP": In the off-season, FR F Hayden Curtiss "jumped ship" from the Pilot boat to the Viking ship. He averaged 2.2 points, 2.5 rebounds and led the Pilots with 25 blocked shots last season. On his new Viking Ship, Curtiss has averaged 8.0 points and 4.5 rebounds in the two games he has played.

by up7587 Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:24 pm

There will be at least one other sort of familiar face on the Vikings squad. Senior Fwd James Jean-Marie (6'8", 235#) is averaging a double-double so far this year.
Last year he played for Hawaii, the year before for USD, where he played in 32 games, averaging over 25 min/gm, with 7 points and 5 rebounds per game. He started twice against the Pilots (in the Torero's only two WCC victories that year Embarassed

), scoring 5 and 11 points respectively, and playing 41 minutes in the overtime win at Chiles.

by dholcombe Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:04 pm

Kenpom has the luck statistic which I've always believed at least partially measures grit and determination among other things that create or take advantage of luck when it comes your way.

by up7587 Mon Nov 22, 2021 11:41 pm

According to ESPN's Power Index, PSU is a 2 to 1 favorite to win. However, Vegas Insider has UP as a 5.5 point favorite. There must be some arbitrage strategy to use here.

by Dean Murdoch Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:38 am

dholcombe wrote:Kenpom has the luck statistic which I've always believed at least partially measures grit and determination among other things that create or take advantage of luck when it comes your way.

I always looked at the Luck rating as "late game execution" - I think he once described his Luck factor by saying a team can't be expected to win or lose every single close game over the course of the season. Of course, the Pilots managed to lose about every close game during the last few years of the Reveno era, and at some point you think the category should be named something other than Luck (maybe, like you said, grit/determination).

by Dean Murdoch Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:53 am

Haha, I think the oddsmakers keep screwing up Portland and Portland State and who's supposed to be the favorite.

PSU is favored by 6½ or so (analytics sites say 9 to 11) but at least two different sites have had the Pilots favored by that same general margin for a portion of the morning.

by DoubleDipper Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:24 am

Dean Murdoch wrote:326 to 324 in Kenpoms after that. I expected a bigger jump considering Morgan State was favoured going in.

A little about KenPom…

At the beginning of the season, it was asked “how can KenPom rate a team that has all new players and coaches…isn’t it based upon statistics? And the answer was yes, it is statistically based, and it was widely believed that the statistics are NOT based on individuals, but on a team’s past performance.

From what I can determine, this year’s KenPom ratings are based upon historical data for each team going back to last season…but I do not know how far back it goes, nor do I know when the KenPom ratings will be based purely on this year’s play. Ten games, perhaps? Probably more, but I am just guessing.

The KenPom rankings have UP 10th in the WCC, 117 spots worse than the 9th place team, Pepperdine. But in my estimation, and based upon this season’s performances only, UP is better than both Pepperdine and Pacific, but still lagging San Diego.

KenPom ranks the WCC as the 7th strongest conference in the country, behind only the Power Six, and UP may still be last using statistics from this season and those from some part of last season, but the team is moving up.

KenPom rating changes since 11/10, the day after the first game of the season:

1 GU (0) 5-0
27 BYU (+12) 4-0
36 USF (-7) 6-0
41 SMC (-1) 5-0
73 SCU (+50) 5-0
86 LMU (-5) 3-2
158 UOP (-33) 2-3
160 USD (-20) 3-2
202 PU (-47) 2-4
319 UP (+10) 4-1

by Dean Murdoch Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:46 am

DoubleDipper wrote:At the beginning of the season, it was asked “how can KenPom rate a team that has all new players and coaches…isn’t it based upon statistics? And the answer was yes, it is statistically based, and it was widely believed that the statistics are NOT based on individuals, but on a team’s past performance.

I think the biggest departure between Kenpom and reality right now when it comes to the Pilots is when it comes to defensive efficiency. I'm pretty confident in saying that what I've seen from the Pilots on the defensive side of the ball is FAR better than 325th out of 358 Division I teams.

And really, I don't think there's an algorithm in existence that could accurately guess defensive efficiency for a team with 100% roster turnover. Maybe you can get a little closer with offensive efficiency because every transfer brings over a little chunk of applicable data there, but getting DE close in this instance is a tough ask.

I can't find the exact quote anymore, but I believe Pomeroy himself has said that preseason ratings have no impact by the time mid-January rolls around.

A flip of barttorvik.com to exclude preseason rating impact entirely has the Pilots at 214th overall and 107th in defensive efficiency (but as dholcombe cautioned last week when I brought this one up, it's still pretty early to be doing this with the data).

by Snus Junction Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:34 pm

I don’t know Kenpom or the WCC teams but from what I have seen - in attending - is that they will win one - at least -WCCgame.This Team is nothing but grit and good athletes

by DoubleDipper Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:11 pm

It is VERY unusual for the Las Vegas odds makers and KenPom to disagree by more than a point or two, and generally KenPom is the more conservative...but tonight is different:

KenPom - PSU by 10 points, 76-66 (142)
Las Vegas - PSU by 6 points (147)

In other games of interest:

Las Vegas has Gonzaga over UCLA by 7 and Oregon over St. Mary's by 2
KenPom: Gonzaga by 6 and Oregon by 1.

by Sound Voltex Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:17 pm

I think this is the smallest I've seen the Pilots on a stream.

I like the bench doing the wavy squid hands during out of bounds plays.

by Dean Murdoch Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:42 pm

So this is fun.

by Geezaldinho Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:44 pm

An ok first half. Need to take care of the ball a bit better.

PSU helped by going 0-9 from three.

by Geezaldinho Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:26 pm

Uh-oh.

Perry looks hurt

by Sound Voltex Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:46 pm

Nice.

The win. Not the score. ~~Obviously.~~

(Minus Perry going down.)

by blacksheep Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:50 pm

I'm about to jump off the ledge and buy a plane ticket to Las Vegas. Someone please talk me out of it!

by **Rob's Jacket** Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:51 pm

blacksheep wrote:I'm about to jump off the ledge and buy a plane ticket to Las Vegas. Someone please talk me out of it!

Don't jinx it!

by blacksheep Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:06 pm

Rob's Jacket wrote:
blacksheep wrote:I'm about to jump off the ledge and buy a plane ticket to Las Vegas. Someone please talk me out of it!

Don't jinx it!

Spoken like a true Pilot fan Evil or Very Mad

by ExpatPilot Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:12 pm

I’m going to need someone to elaborate on three things:

1) Perry’s injury
2) the WWE belt in the locker room
3) the cereal in the locker room

Fun times right now across men’s and women’s basketball!

by Sound Voltex Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:39 pm

Post-radio Legans: https://vocaroo.com/11fPadIFKyNm
Post-radio Silveira: https://vocaroo.com/1pxijMw4KJzl

by up7587 Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:45 pm

Pilots were outscored 13-2 in the final four minutes. They need to learn how to finish a game, be more efficient, force the opponent to foul. They won't always have a large enough cushion to hang onto leads.

by up7587 Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:46 pm

Oh, and Coach needs some throat lozenges.

Pilots @ Vikings 7pm Tuesday 11/23 (TV)

Pilots @ Vikings 7pm Tuesday 11/23 (TV)

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