2018 Season

UP Athlietics wrote:The Portland Pilots women's soccer team received a commitment from recruit Emily Collier, a left back who currently plays in the Portland Thorns Academy. Collier will join the Pilots as a freshman in the fall, announced first-year head coach Michelle French.

http://portlandpilots.com/news/2018/5/16/wsoc-recruit-emily-collier-commits-to-the-pilots.aspx

Recruiting is an ongoing process and French hopes to announce more additions. She says she is looking for "an impact player, and also just trying to build our numbers."

With that in mind, she went to Europe in early May to visit various youth academy programs.

UP women's soccer coach aims to alter team's 'DNA'

http://pamplinmedia.com/pt/12-sports/396750-287042-up-womens-soccer-coach-aims-to-alter-teams-dna

First official practice yesterday:


https://portlandpilots.com/news/2018/8/1/wsoc-pilots-kickoff-the-2018-campaign-with-first-official-training-under-french.aspx

I saw that they are replacing the scoreboards at Merlo. Are they putting a video screen in by chance or just new electronic boards? Either way, it’s a welcome update I’m sure.

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:I saw that they are replacing the scoreboards at Merlo. Are they putting a video screen in by chance or just new electronic boards? Either way, it’s a welcome update I’m sure.

Saw this pic on the Twitter account. Looks like no video screens, which makes sense... they would need to be pretty huge to be visible, plus it takes a lot of manpower to run them properly. Not to mention the initial cost.

A much-needed upgrade.

I also saw this upgrade/update on twitter:


https://twitter.com/ATurfMan/status/1027023502446981121

I believe the grass field will not be available until next spring.

Stonehouse wrote:

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:I saw that they are replacing the scoreboards at Merlo. Are they putting a video screen in by chance or just new electronic boards? Either way, it’s a welcome update I’m sure.

Saw this pic on the Twitter account. Looks like no video screens, which makes sense... they would need to be pretty huge to be visible, plus it takes a lot of manpower to run them properly. Not to mention the initial cost.

Too bad that they couldn't squeeze a third digit into the minutes field. Given the frequency of extra time, that seems more important that the numbers of fouls and saves.

SoreKnees wrote:Too bad that they couldn't squeeze a third digit into the minutes field. Given the frequency of extra time, that seems more important that the numbers of fouls and saves.

Fair point for matches using international rules, but don't NCAA rules mandate that the clock counts down to zero and that the announcer verbally count down the last 10 seconds? In which case, the clock is never set for more than 45 minutes.

Stonehouse wrote:

SoreKnees wrote:Too bad that they couldn't squeeze a third digit into the minutes field. Given the frequency of extra time, that seems more important that the numbers of fouls and saves.

Fair point for matches using international rules, but don't NCAA rules mandate that the clock counts down to zero and that the announcer verbally count down the last 10 seconds? In which case, the clock is never set for more than 45 minutes.

I think they've been counting up to 90 minutes the last couple of years. But then they hit the limit in extra time and I don't remember how they did that.

PilotNut wrote:I believe the grass field will not be available until next spring.  

The weather has cooperated, and the grass is in use now.

The men were practicing on the Franz grass yesterday....

Do these fields mean anything about the long term vision for the grass and artificial fields next to Merlo? I feel like the teams and intramurals badly needed extra field space when I was there which would mean that the old fields will remain in use for the time being.

What are the rules for driving down to the Franz campus to look around? Lots of signs discouraging entry.

up7587 wrote:What are the rules for driving down to the Franz campus to look around?  Lots of signs discouraging entry.

Yeah, the signs are discouraging with all the construction that's been going on...

The best way to go is to come up Portsmouth, take a right just past the Beauchamp Center onto Strong, then take your first left onto Van Houten Ave.

As you head down the hill continue on Van Houten Ave. as it curves around to the RIGHT and becomes Van Houten Place and then eventually curves around the LEFT by the new parking lot and becomes Van Houten Court.

(I haven't been on the Franz Campus for a couple of months, but we were prohibited from going straight down the Bluff on Portsmouth to enter).

PilotNut wrote:I believe the grass field will not be available until next spring.  

You are correct, originally the grass field wasn't going to be available until next spring....

Yesterday, Scott Leykam wrote:Always nice when a plan comes together ahead of schedule! Thrilled to open the new varsity soccer practice complex on the Franz River Campus this morning --- well ahead of the originally planned spring 2019 opening. Let the soccer seasons begin ..

Time to bite the bullet:

The Pilots play 20 games (not counting exhibitions).

Lots of us are really happy to have Michelle French and her staff heading the program.  But, we need to be realistic.  Data say that before the coaching change, the Pilots were in the midst of a precipitous dive.  Data also say that it takes about eight years until a program completely "belongs" to a new coach (this works as to former coach Smith, and it will work as to new coach French).

With that in mind, I'm cautioning fans to be realistic.  I'm not going to publish here what my data say the Pilots season should be based on long term trends and recent results, but fans need to know that the "should be" season will be a test of their fandom.

What I will do, game by game, is report here whether the game result is better or poorer than what the pre-season data say it should have been.  I'll do this because it will give a sense of whether the ship is turning around.  (I'm thinking it will be turning around, but I've learned that personal hopes normally don't trump the data).

PS - The Pilots have a pre-season game tomorrow (Friday) against the University of British Columbia at 4:30 pm.  It should be fun and interesting to watch.  Hopefully, there will be a decent turn out of fans.

Does anyone have any insight into streaming of this season’s games including tonight’s? I looked at the website and could find no information concerning streaming. The schedule only lists Live Stats, nothing about streaming. I’m out of state at present and was counting on watching the game today on my laptop.

A_Fan wrote:Does anyone have any insight into streaming of this season’s games including tonight’s?  

They'll start streaming the women's games next Friday against N. Arizona, and the men's games on August 24th against Sacramento St.  

I don't think UP has ever, or will ever, stream exhibition games in any sport because the coaches are very reluctant to give opposing coaches any more scouting information than they absolutely have to.

Thanks for the info.

Re: NAU

I cannot get the stream to work. Anyone else having problems?

Hopefully we can get a more lively discussion going again like the old days.

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:Re: NAU

I cannot get the stream to work. Anyone else having problems?

Hopefully we can get a more lively discussion going again like the old days.

They put up a YouTube stream so I was able to catch most of the first half. So far, I like what I see. For this season, I really have no expectations for this team or understanding of who is on it anymore unfortunately. So, the fact that we looked good this half was a pleasant surprise.

That being said, I have no idea if NAU is any good. I like that most of the game has been played in front of the NAU goalkeeper so far with little challenge so far for our keeper. But, I want us to finish more of those chances inside the box. First game jitters maybe?

I’m hoping that I can stay awake for the second half.

Pilots win 2-0! Win #1 for the Michelle French era.

I promised, game by game, to report here whether the game result is better or poorer than what my pre-season simulation says it should have been.  I'm doing this because it will give a sense of whether the Frenchie and Co. "Pilot"ed ship is turning around. The simulation assigns teams pre-season ratings based on the teams' long-term rating trends (last eight years) and their more recent ratings (last two years).  The rating formula that assigns the pre-season ratings is one of a great number I've tested, and it produces the best match with "next year's" actual ratings -- in this case "next year" being the current 2018 season.

For each game, my computer starts with the opponents' pre-season simulated ratings and adjusts them based on the game location.  The computer then computes the adjusted rating difference between the two teams.  Having done that, where the difference is small enough, the computer identifies the game as a tie.  If the difference is greater, it identifies the game as a win for the better rated team and a loss for the poorer rated team.

For the Northern Arizona game, the computer said the game would be a tie.  It wasn't.  The Pilots won 2-0.  So, they performed better/Northern Arizona performed worse than the simulation said they should.  This is GOOD!

It's only one game, so we have to beware of the "false" Law of Small Numbers -- which is the human tendency to give credence to any data sample no matter how small.  But the game result suggests that the ship may be beginning to turn around.

There were definitely some pleasing things last night. This is the first time in recent years that the Pilots seemed to understand that games are decided by goals, not possession. As a team, there was a tactical desire to get the ball forward and into the area rather than just passing it around the periphery.

A couple of particular performances that I found impressive:

Madison Carter, the frosh striker, has a combination of height and pace that I don't remember the Pilot women having ... well ... ever! She seems to have some skill with her feet as well. It's easy to imagine her playing the "target man" role and holding up long balls to bring the other forwards into play. It will be fun to watch her evolve and improve over the next few years.

Kimberly Hazlett is a frightening player. She always has been, but never quite flourished under the previous system because it did not play to her combination of pace, technical ability, and quality finishing. It appears that the current system "has let" (sorry) her unleash that ability.

Finally, Natalie Muth has played in the back line in previous years but moved forward into the holding midfield role last night. She looked the part from the start, getting forward at times but mostly just protecting the defense. A few wayward passes, but overall impressive performance.

A good win, I think. But it was hard to detect much quality in the opponent apart from a respectable turnout of away fans. You can only beat what's put in front of you; so far, so good. I'm not ready to say that this squad can compete against the top teams in the WCC, let alone the top teams in the country, but they were sure a lot more interesting to watch last night than they have been for the last 5 years or so. Now to get the recruiting going in earnest to build a larger, deeper squad and allow more rotation when they get to the two-games-a-week grind.

First, regarding the new scoreboard: Love the data, but too bad they didn't raise it up higher.  I sit in the first row and can't see it through the railings!

Enjoyed the first game in the Michelle French era!  We won :-)  Liked the attacking style of play much better than previously when most of the game was passing back. I also liked that they were more physical, which is needed to compete against the best.

This was in the pre-game notes: The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks went 9-10-1 last season and were selected to finish fourth in the Big Sky Conference this year.  They are returning 22 players and 7 starters.

The players mentioned by SoreKnees were also the ones that impressed me.  Finally a player that can dribble with confidence - Madison Carter!  Kimberly is amazingly fast with a great work rate!  Natalie Muth had some beautiful passes.  I would add Taryn Ries and Larkin Russell.  I also thought the other freshman, Emily Collier played well until she went out with an injury.

Looking forward to game #2!

My observations and comments from Friday’s opening match, modified after watching the broadcast of the match (from 16th minute on) on YouTube:

We had a young starting lineup:  2 frosh, 3 sophs, 4 juniors, and 2 seniors (the only seniors on the team).  The 2 frosh starters were #8 Madison Carter at F; #15 Emily Collier at D.  Other changes from last year:  #5 Dendinger moved from M to D; #13 Muth moved from D to M.  I must admit that, until I read an earlier comment on the game, Muth’s move from D didn’t register with me.

The team started out a bit shakily, not connecting on passes.  They likely were nervous with first game jitters and all the publicity over the coaching change.  As they game progressed, UP gradually took over control of the game.

NAU was very unimpressive, especially offensively.  After seeing the poor offensive showing, I was a bit surprised at the following comments on their website about their earlier exhibition match:  “In their one preseason exhibition last Saturday, Aug. 11, the 'Jacks showed an explosive offensive attack as they were able to take down Arizona Christian University, 8-1.  ‘A big thing going into the season we worked on is getting numbers forward and looking to finish the opportunities that we created’”.  Evidently UP is a significant step above Arizona Christian.

I thought the UP back line did far too much booting the ball away, giving up the ball unnecessarily.  Perhaps they were trying to spring the forwards for runs for the goal.  But too many times it was nothing more than a long turnover.  The long kicks were amended later in the game by passing among the defenders and the keeper.  Sometimes this involved some shaky ball handling, but in most cases it allowed us to hold on to the ball until we found an opening to move the ball upfield.  Update:  I did not notice the booting away on the video, so either it was in the first 16 minutes or I was hypercritical.  And the passing between the backline and the keeper looked pretty good.

Overall I wasn’t impressed with our passing.  But it is the beginning of the season, timings are a bit off, still getting used to teammates.  It will, must, improve.  Obviously there were some nice ones, Ries’ pass to Hazlett for the 2nd goal was a good example.  Update:  After watching the video, I don't think the passing was bad.

I like the obvious PR:  I have been greeted by a smile and handshake and “Hi, I’m _____” from both coaches and players.  And I liked how the players were re-directed after the game:  since there were no students in the student section after the game, the coaches sent the players and their high-fives to the main stands where the bulk of the fans were eager to greet them.

Carter didn’t play in the exhibition match, so I didn’t and don’t know much about her.  But she is big, 5’ 11”, and doesn’t appear to be afraid of contact.  Does she have the potential to be the big, fast, effective forward we dream of?  The UP telecast announcers both had positive things to say about her.

Collier went down midway in the 1st half.  It didn't appear to be the result of a collision, she just grabbed her leg as she was running.  She walked off the field supported on both sides, and then was carted to the locker room.  After the match she was on crutches with an elastic wrap around her leg.  I hope her injury is not serious.

Maybe I was more objective during the video re-play since I knew how the match would end.  UP was very obviously in control.  Both the offense and the defense appeared to have plenty of room to operate.

Alum Noelle La Prevotte is assisting with the broadcast of the matches.