Re: 2017-18 Pre-Season Discussion

by pilotdad1 Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:32 pm

DD, you are correct with your geography. He finished out last year in Luxemburg and according to Ryan, three years was just right.
As for living in Portland, that one was a natural. Spokane is great if you are my age but for the 20 something crowd, Portland is a much better city.

I will let him know about Sunday, but I wont be able to make that one. Shantay is a friend of ours and I wish him the best of games as long as EWU loses by at least 1. Smile

I will look for you guys this season, most likely I will be in the same section as I was when watching Ryan.

GO PILOTS

by Sound Voltex Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:11 am

Includes highlights of the scrimmages.

by ExpatPilot Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:43 am

I think that I am the most jealous of Luxembourg out of that list. I hear that is a neat little country! It's on my list to visit. Glad to hear Rhino enjoyed his time as a professional!

by DoubleDipper Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:40 pm

NoPoNeighbor wrote:KenPom's preseason rankings came out (kenpom.com), and UP is last in the WCC at #305. Yikes.

Our non-conference foes
PSU: 246
Walla Walla: 5,012
Oregon Tech: 5,013
North Carolina: 13
Oklahoma: 21
Arkansas: 56
Multnomah: 5,014
Boise: 85
Fullerton: 270
San José: 272
Seattle: 278
Hartford: 314
Sacramento: 301

There's a good chance UP will play DePaul in the 3rd game of PK80, they are ranked #119 (UP's original likely PK80 foe, Georgetown, is ranked #79) scratch

Here are KenPom's WCC rankings (there are 351 NCAA D1 teams ):
GU: 20
SMC: 30
BYU: 72
USF: 116
SCU: 126
USD: 187
UOP: 253,
LMU: 254
PU: 286
UP: 305

As a conference, the WCC is ranked 12th out of 32 conferences, just behind the Colonial Athletic Association and just ahead of the Ivy League.

KenPom predicts UP will finish 10-19/4-14. The 10 wins includes the 3 NAIA games, PSU by 1 point, Cal St. Fullerton, San Jose St., and Hartford. Not factored in are the 2nd and 3rd game in the PK80. KP predicts only 3 WCC wins for the Pilots, UOP, LMU, and PU in the Chiles Center. The projected 4-14 record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game, that's why it does not equal the sum of individual game predictions.

I believe we'll find the team rankings will change considerably as the season progresses....

by Guest Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:22 pm

DoubleDipper wrote:I believe we'll find the team rankings will change considerably as the season progresses....

Since KenPom has no actual data on this year's teams to base his rankings, I'd say that a fair statement. Rolling Eyes

by Sound Voltex Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:06 pm

Portland Pilots discussion starts at 34:28.

tl;dr: Still has us near the bottom/last, but stated we had the best offseason out of all the WCC teams because of the roster overhaul and bringing in strength, so could be a contender in the future. Shaver is mentioned as favorite for WCC Newcomer.

by DoubleDipper Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:13 pm

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:Can someone enlighten me into the NCAA/WCC beer rules?

Some studies have shown that allowing beer to be sold in the stadium actually reduces rowdy/drunken behavior because fans don't have to binge drink prior to the game. It's also pretty well known that there is more bad behavior at night games because the fans have had all day to drink while tailgating. Notre Dame's recent night game was very rare for that very reason.

KGW News in Portland has seen plenty of rowdy behavior at Oregon and Oregon State football games so it's probably no surprise that a recent survey found that Oregon was #3 in the nation for fan ejections and Oregon State was #4. It was also no surprise that Wisconsin was #2, but it came as a surprise to me that South Carolina was #1 in the nation for fan ejections in 2016.

Of course the statistics for ejections and arrests from each stadium can be misleading in that some schools have different (if any) reporting criteria and some schools maintain much tighter surveillance and stricter standards.

Utah #6? scratch

http://www.kgw.com/news/investigations/fans-behaving-badly-thousands-ejected-arrested-during-2016-college-football-season/486339923

by DoubleDipper Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:37 pm

Should be more than just an "exhibition" match this afternoon between the Pilots and Eastern Washington as UP's new team tries to find some identity against a D1 team and EWU begins life with a new coach (former Head Coach Jim Hayford is now at Seattle U.)

EWU finished last season at 22-12 (13-5 in the Big Sky) with a KenPom ranking of 186 after rising as high as 172 prior to their conference tournament.

In contrast, UP was 11-22 (2-16) with a rank of 280 after being all the way up to 128 after playing in the Thanksgiving tournament in Anaheim/Fullerton.

I believe UP's athleticism will prevail, but I also think it could get pretty sloppy as college kids attempt to individually impress to gain a future starting spot....for both schools.

by Sound Voltex Sun Oct 29, 2017 2:58 pm

Clearly when as a team you don't; score well, defend well, don't share the ball well, don't take care of the ball well, or rebound well, you're going to be a bad team. That's what happened last season when Alec Wintering went down with a season ending injury. First year coach Terry Porter then predictably evaluated the roster, ran off most of that roster, and then brought in a huge recruiting class to jump start the program.

I am terrible at projecting freshman and newcomer's impact on a program so I have no idea what to expect from the Pilots this year. D'Marques Tyson and Phillip Hartwich are decent supporting players, but I don't expect them to step up and lead the team so this team will succeed or fail based on the newcomers on the roster. It's possible that the Pilots finish a few spots higher than 10th however here are my biases which have lead me to pick the Pilots as a last place team.

1) All things being equal teams lead by newcomers and freshman don't tend to be successful. It's going to take time for this roster to adjust to division one basketball and gel as a team.

2) I'm biased against former pros as college head coaches. I haven't done a quantitative analysis but off the top of my head the results aren't good for former pros leading college teams. To me a former pro doesn't know how to evoke the will and desire to be great that they had out of their young players and despite the notoriety and excitement that a former pro brings to a program ultimately they tend to fail.

2.5) Coach Porter during WCC Media Day expressed a sentiment I find common from former pros turned college head coaches that I don't think works. When describing his offensive philosophy he essentially said that he wants to provide players with some structure but to let them play. While I think that's an attractive position in which to sell a program in terms of recruiting. In the reality that is WCC conference play, which tends to be a chess match with teams executing their game plans, making adjustments, then making counter adjustments to the opponents adjustments, I don't think millennials have the maturity to perform at a high level without coaching input during the course of a game.

While Coach Porter isn't necessarily going to just roll the balls out, I don't see much success in this more hands off approach. He also as a former pro overestimated the ability of college players to absorb and implement pro style offenses and defenses and the amount of teaching that is required at the college level that isn't at the pro level. During media day he acknowledged that and we'll see if in his 2nd year he can simplify things and yet get his guys to do what he wants.

3) Portland just seems to be an unlucky program. LMU to me is the most unlucky program in the conference but Portland is right there. Until they can stem the tide and get over the hump as a program I just see them finding a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. In terms of trends for the program, I have to think things can only go up, but then again Portland is an unlucky program so we'll see. If Coach Porter has several players leave after this season, I think that will be a bad indicator. If he can keep this group together and develop them, then things look better. We shall see.

The Consensus
WCC Coaches Poll - 9th

The fans
Quidveritas - 10th
nojnotslar - 10th
Gentleman Stan - 9th
The Magazines
Lindy's - 7th
Athlon - 7th
NBC Sports - 8th

The Twitter-verse
@CondorianFM - 9th
@CollegeHoopsNew - 10th
@_3MW_ - 7th

http://wccboards.com/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=1721&p=5705#p5705

(Source analysis was one giant wall of text, added some line breaks in here)

by Dean Murdoch Sun Oct 29, 2017 5:41 pm

Wait, Diabate shoots threes?

by Sound Voltex Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:01 pm

Dean Murdoch wrote:Wait, Diabate shoots threes?

I had to do a double take on that, too.

Also I see these trends have come back to haunt again (no pun intended).

SCORING DROUGHT
FGs: 0 OF LAST
NO FGS LAST

by ExpatPilot Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:17 pm

Just going based on the box score.

- Someone teach Hartwich to shoot free throws. That is going to be an obvious tactic for opponents to just force the ball to him and foul him down the stretch. 14-28 overall by the team is atrocious for free throws, but I see that 9-19 are Hartwich. I appreciate his defense and rebounding though. 15-points by him was a team high.

- The droughts that Sound Voltex mentioned. I do see that we were within two with under a minute to go. So, that's hopeful, I guess.

- EWU had over twice as many 2nd chance points.

- Only 9 players saw the floor.

- The +/- for each player makes me cringe.

by Sound Voltex Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:29 pm

by Geezaldinho Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:33 pm

There go hopes of running out our string for the year.

Free throws

...

....

..

Yikkees.

They keep shooting the freebies like that and I'll suggest they keep the Pilot club bar open after the games.

They'll need to stock up on more single malt.

by NoPoNeighbor Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:09 am

Thoughts on the EWU exhibition game:

• I was impressed by Diabate in his limited minutes. He looks like he is settling in. He hit some good shots. I wish he'd played more.

• For most of the game we played with Hartwich at center, McSwiggan at the "4" and a rotating cast of guards in the other three spots (the Porters, Shaver, Walker and Tyson). Diabate was on the bench for most of the second half, and neither Stone nor Hogland played at all. I was hoping we'd get to see what Stone can do.

• Two biggest surprises: 1) Hartwich led the team in scoring. This was mostly due to his numerous trips to the free throw line. Unfortunately he cost us the game by missing over half of his attempts. 2) McSwiggan was a non-factor on offense, despite leading the team in minutes played (35).

• Jackson didn't play at all. I don't see much of a roll for him on this roster. Too many guards who are better than he is. Perhaps he'll be called on for defensive purposes from time to time?

• Smoyer really looked lost out there most of the time during his 9 minutes. Getting in the way of his teammates who were driving the hoop; winding up out of bounds under the basket when he should have been in rebounding position... Disappointing after being in the program for over a year.

• Hartwich: He made some good moves in the block, but also cost himself several good scoring chances by taking too much time once he got the ball, rather than just going up for the shot immediately. While he was 3-6 from the field, his three misses were ham-handed shots that caromed wildly off the backboard or rim (and maybe one of them was an air ball?) despite being shot from within four feet of the hoop. He also failed to convert a few pretty easy baskets (including a dunk or two) while being fouled. Those don't show up as missed shots in the box score, even though an average 7'2" player should be expected to make those buckets. If Hartwich were a freshman or sophomore, I'd be thinking, "This guy could develop into a pretty good player." Unfortunately, he's already a senior.

• The offense never got into much of a rhythm... as evidenced by the scoring droughts and very few instances when we scored on consecutive possessions. There were no real transition or fast-break opportunities to speak of.

by NoPoNeighbor Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:14 am

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:- The +/- for each player makes me cringe.

Where are you seeing this? I can't find it in the box score on the Pilots' website...

by ExpatPilot Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:17 am

NoPoNeighbor wrote:
SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:- The +/- for each player makes me cringe.
Where are you seeing this? I can't find it in the box score on the Pilots' website...

If you look on the stat cast box score, under the team specific stats you can see them.

EDIT: Look under the "home stats" tab: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=192940

Or, let me save you all a click

Porter, M: -12
McSwiggan: -11
Porter, F: -9
Diabate: +4
Hartwich: +6
Walker: +1
Tyson: -7
Shaver Jr.: -5
Smoyer: -12

by DoubleDipper Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:58 am

Thanks for the rundown, NPN...

UP's greater athleticism was apparent, but EWU was a really mature, good shooting squad that was better at shot selection and much better at blocking-out under the glass.

For awhile it seemed UP had better team rhythm/flow with Shaver and Walker in the game compared to the Porter tandem, but then their court immaturity showed up and it got a little wild.

It obviously drove us nuts to watch Hartwich miss so many foul shots and other scoring opportunities, but I will say his senior maturity and leadership was much more apparent than ever before. His direction of the team from his post position, especially on defense, was heartening.

I came away from the game disappointed in the Pilots inability to shoot from mid-range...something that I've witnessed in practice on a number of occasions, but the ball movement and teamwork was excellent. Coach Porter seemed to think the shooting will get better...it's going to have to if the Pilots are to exceed last year's win total.

A side note: The EWU coach may be a great guy in real life, but he ranks right down there with Rex Walters for being a total ass (couldn't find a donkey emoji to add here) on the sidelines. This was merely an "exhibition" game, but his stomping around and yelling at officials was worthy of the final-four of how coaches should not behave. In contrast, Coach Porter questioned the refs some, but it was done in more of a "let's both learn from this" manner.

by Dean Murdoch Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:23 pm

DoubleDipper wrote:(couldn't find a donkey emoji to add here)

🐴

(How's that for a quality contribution to the discussion)

by DoubleDipper Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:33 pm

Dean Murdoch wrote:
DoubleDipper wrote:(couldn't find a donkey emoji to add here)

🐴
(How's that for a quality contribution to the discussion)

A heck of a lot better than those who contribute nothing at all.....Sad Sad

by Stonehouse Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:04 pm

DoubleDipper wrote:A heck of a lot better than those who contribute nothing at all.....Sad

Guilty as charged. Sad

But I couldn't be there last night, and I'm not totally sure how much can be taken from a glorified scrimmage game.

I think McSwiggin can handle the stretch four role offensively, but I'm a bit more dubious on the defensive end... EWU had a 17-6 edge in second chance points and about a 30% offensive rebound rate, which is quite high.

If Diabete can keep improving and earn more minutes, I think he can help shore up those defensive rebounding issues.

by NoPoNeighbor Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:40 pm

Thanks for posting the +/-, SouthCarolina. In the 31 minutes that Hartwich was on the floor we were +6. In the 9 minutes that he was out (and Smoyer was in) we were -12. There’s your 6-point margin of defeat. Very interesting.

by Sound Voltex Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:54 pm

7. Portland

Terry Porter's first season in Portland has to be graded on a curve, as the loss of Alec Wintering really threw the Pilots' season under the bus. Few players in the country were as vital to their team as Wintering was to UP, and the Pilots didn't win another game without him until they upended USD in the WCC tournament (unless you count the Walla Walla victory).

This year's Pilots will be incredibly young, but Porter overhauled the roster with a lot of talent, and the trip to England over the summer was a much-needed opportunity to blend the new faces together. In the backcourt, Porter has a glut of options to replace Wintering, including his sons, Malcolm and Franklin. Both are capable ball handlers at 6-foot-4, but they'll most likely be playing off two talented freshmen, Marcus Shaver and JoJo Walker. Shaver represents the better shooter of the two, but Walker is a relentless penetrator and should be Porter's best on-ball defender.

With all the talent and athleticism in the backcourt, Porter could easily go with a four-out attack and extend pressure defensively, especially with 6-foot-5 senior sharpshooter D'Marques Tyson still in the mix. Former UTEP stretch 4 Josh McSwiggan has a smooth offensive game, but he's a liability on the glass and defensively, which means Japanese freshman Tahirou Diabate could be paired with him as an offense for defense rotation at the 4. Diabate brings energy, rebounding and defense to the frontcourt with his athleticism. Philipp Hartwich is serviceable at the 5, and his per 40 block rate was high last year.

Portland is the hardest team to slot with all the new, but talented, faces. If the Porters/Shaver/Walker backcourt is as good on the court as it is on paper, the Pilots could be a sleeper for a top-half finish.

https://www.sportsaction.io/blog/college-basketball-betting-preview-inside-the-wcc/

by Dean Murdoch Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:36 am

I think a look back to the 2007-08 Pilots (Reveno's second year as coach) might provide a bit of a glimpse into this Pilots team for this season and beyond.

• Both teams have/had only three players left over from the previous regime. Reveno had Walter Thompson, Sherrard Watson, and Marcus Carter. Porter has Jackson, Tyson, and Hartwich.

• This year's Pilots will have a massive reliance on underclassmen. Four freshmen (Porter, Diabate, Walker, Shaver) and three sophomores (McSwiggan, Porter, Smoyer) can be reasonably expected to see significant amounts of playing time if the EWU game is any indication. It was literally the same breakdown back in 2007-08, when four freshmen (Raivio, Sikma, Knutson, Stohl) and three sophomores (Ito, Smeulders, Niedermeyer) all averaged 10+ minutes per game.

It was a tough season 10 years ago for the Pilots at 9-22 overall (3-11 WCC) but returning all of those seven players above and adding T.J. Campbell to the mix took this team to the next level.

There might be some lumps taken this year simply due to inexperience, but hopefully this is a core that can show some glimpses and break out in a big way in 2018-19 in Porter's third year just like the Pilots did in Reveno's third year as head coach.

Season prediction: 14-19 (7-6 non-conference, 6-12 WCC, 1-1 at WCC tournament with a win in the 7/10 game)

by DoubleDipper Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:47 pm

Dean Murdoch wrote:There might be some lumps taken this year simply due to inexperience, but hopefully this is a core that can show some glimpses and break out in a big way in 2018-19 in Porter's third year just like the Pilots did in Reveno's third year as head coach.

Season prediction: 14-19 (7-6 non-conference, 6-12 WCC, 1-1 at WCC tournament with a win in the 7/10 game)

I haven't spoken to the staff since August, but they too were looking forward to year 3 and 4 as breakout years.

Sports Illustrated is projecting SMC as a 4 seed in the South Region and GU as a 6 seed in the East Region in the NCAA Tournament.
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/10/31/preseason-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projection-field

They also predict UP will be last in the WCC and 276th in the country based upon each team's offensive and defensive output.
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/10/31/ncaa-351-team-preseason-rankings-projections-seeds

It will be interesting to see how the brackets and rankings change as the season progresses.