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2022-23 Season in Review

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Post by up7587 Sat Mar 04, 2023 10:11 pm

A look at the non-conference losses.
Pilots' first loss was at Kent State. The Golden Flashes are 25-6, and 2nd in the MAC. Current #80 in KenPom.
Next loss was at home to Seattle U. Currently 20-11, 4th in WAC. #143 KenPom.
Third loss was to North Carolina. Currently 19-11, 7th ACC, and a bubble team. #47 KenPom.
Fourth "loss" was to Michigan St. 19-11 and 2nd in Big Ten. #27 KenPom.
A bad loss was at home to N. Dakota St. Currently 14-16, 3rd in Summit. #208 KenPom.
Next loss was at Oregon. Another bubble team, currently 18-13, 4th in Pac-12. #42 KenPom.
Last non-conf loss was at UC Riverside. 21-11, 3rd in Big West. #144 KenPom.

So the Pilots only lost n-c one game to a KP lower rated team. The SU game at home was a toss-up and is one that got away. The other toss-up match-up was at UCR, where several key players had poor games. The MSU "loss" was a huge missed opportunity, marred by the swallowed whistle.

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Post by bullwinkle Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:48 am

Watching the games at the conference tournament you see every team has one, and often two big men on the floor at all times. If you wanted to see our big men you had to look at the bench.

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Post by DoubleDipper Sun Mar 05, 2023 8:14 am

bullwinkle wrote:Watching the games at the conference tournament you see every team has one, and often two big men on the floor at all times.  If you wanted to see our big men you had to look at the bench.  
YES!!

The issue of a lack of quality big men that fit into the scheme at both ends of the floor has to be addressed by the Pilots if the team is ever going to be in the top 4 at tournament time.
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Post by up7587 Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:53 am

On the BYU roster, Traore is listed at 6'6", 240#.
USF has 7'2" Markovetskyy, who played 1 minute, and 7'1" Gigiberia, who was offensively inept in his 14 minutes last night. He did grab 6 rebounds. Mostly USF played with two or three forwards.

My point is that the "big man" does not need to be a skyscraper. He needs to be someone who takes up space on defense and rebounds with authority, can catch and pass the ball, and has some touch around the basket. SMC's big guy, Saxen, is a good model. Listed at the same height as Vucinic (6'10"), he's 15-20# heavier, and averages 12 pts and 8 rbs in 31 mpg.

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Post by bdaddy Sun Mar 05, 2023 10:58 am

I’m assuming this type of player will have to come through the portal. It’s unlikely that they can find a Freshman capable of filling that role. I’m sure we’ll do a full breakdown of the roster at a later date, but at first glance, next year’s team is going to be very deep in the backcourt. The only subtraction is Perry with Austin and Masic as additions. If that stands, I’d have to imagine Gorosito and Applewhite’s minutes would be affected.

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Post by up7587 Sun Mar 05, 2023 12:25 pm

We have not seen Bol Dengdit yet. He's 6'11" but listed at 200#. I gather he prefers to play a wing role on offense, but I don't know how he rebounds or plays defensively.

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Post by up7587 Sun Mar 05, 2023 2:02 pm

A look at the non-conference wins.
First game was a win over Lewis and Clark, a mediocre D-III school.
Next was a game at home against Florida A&M, a bad SWAC team. They are KP #358, 6th worst rated team.
Third home game and win was the PSU game. The Vikings are 12-19, 7th in Big Sky, KP #236. Good win against a motivated opponent.
First road win was at Air Force. The Falcons are 14-17, 10th in MWC, and #146 in KenPom. Good win.
Next win was the PKI game against Villanova. The Wildcats are 16-15, 6th in the Big East, and #67 KP. Great win.
After the PKI we were treated to a visit by Multnomah, an NAIA team.
North Dakota came to Chiles and lost. They are 13-20, 8th in Summit, #265 KP.
New Orleans was the last n-c win. The Privateers are 10-19, 6th in Southland, #339 KP.

Two wins against higher rated KenPom teams, one away and one neutral. One too many games against non-D1 teams. A couple wins versus lower rated teams. And a couple wins over bad teams. But hey, even the mighty Zags played Eastern Oregon and Chicago St.

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Post by Pilot14 Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:59 am

The Pilots rank 273rd in KenPom defensive efficiency, giving up 110 points per 100 possessions.. Has to be fixed. Hard to win ballgames doing that

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Post by Dean Murdoch Mon Mar 06, 2023 8:31 am

up7587 wrote:SMC's big guy, Saxen, is a good model.

You mention Saxen. There is a player on the Pilots roster that is having roughly the same career trajectory as him, could it be that at least part of the answer is right here after another offseason of development?

Thanks to the great Ken Pomeroy we can compare some underlying numbers between the two players, looking at just WCC play to account for SOS disparity and Saxen missing the start of non-conference last year. The numbers are percentage of minutes played, offensive rating (I think roughly described as points per 100 possessions, anything over 100 is generally good), and percentage of available defensive rebounds grabbed by the player.

Fr: Saxen 23.0% of MP, 96.3 O-Rtg, 17.0% D-Reb. Vucinic 11.5% of MP, 70.1 O-Rtg, 18.4% D-Reb.
So: Saxen 21.3% of MP, 105.3 O-Rtg, 17.2% D-Reb. Vucinic 24.8% of MP, 105.6 O-Rtg, 16.8% D-Reb.
Jr: Saxen All-WCC 1st Team. Vucinic ?????

There are obviously some statistical similarities between the two players' first two years and Vucinic quietly ended up with very solid numbers, albeit in a sheltered role with his most productive outings coming after he had gone back to 8-12 minutes per game once Moses came back from injury. Should also be noted that the biggest factor in Saxen's lack of minutes his first two years with the Gaels would be the presence of Matthias Tass, with no such comparable on Portland's roster.

Another hint that suggests there might be some more from Vucinic - his strongest "player comparable" from his most recent season is a guy by the name of Johncarlos Reyes, who put up similar numbers as a SO with Boston College in 2017-18. Reyes eventually grad-transferred to a good Nevada squad, where he was the Wolf Pack's starting center during Jazz Johnson's senior year.
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Post by up7587 Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:41 am

Yes, I am wondering how much more development is available for Vucinic, or if what we see is what we get. Big men often bloom later. The variables include how hard will he work to be better, and how good is our staff at developing him.

As a freshman at EWU, Tanner Groves started 2 games, played in 28 at 8 mpg, and averaged 2.8 ppg.
His sophomore year, he started 1 game, played in 31 at 10 mpg, and averaged 5.4 ppg.
His junior year, he started all 24 games, averaged 27 mpg with 17.2 ppg.

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Post by Snus Junction Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:08 pm

I had hoped that Joey St Pierre Would help more than he did - rebounding was not his forte.
Maybe Vucinic with 20 pounds and time in weight room this summer.
God how I wish Chika Nduka would have a growth spurt!
Is there another Chika out there? Transfer portal? Anywhere!

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Post by Snus Junction Tue Mar 07, 2023 3:38 pm

74 Zach Eddy Purdue - their coach Mike Painter
His philosophy is bring the bigs in for a look and only then with consultation weight lifting coac doesthe “prospective big get alook.
Anyone know if Joey got a scholarship for showing up?
Shantay - totally support you but can’t teach height.

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Post by Fox Mulder Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:25 pm

Snus Junction wrote:74 Zach Eddy Purdue - their coach Mike Painter
His philosophy is bring the bigs in for a look and only then with consultation weight lifting coac doesthe “prospective big get alook.
Anyone know if Joey got a scholarship for showing up?
Shantay - totally support you but can’t teach height.

Matt Painter*

Been a Boilermaker fan my entire life and it has been fun to see the emergence of Edey and other big men in the past. Here is a recent article on how Matt and Purdue have become "Big Man U"

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/35712024/the-story-how-purdue-boilermakers-became-big-man-u-latest-being-zach-edey
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