Week 6 polls and RPI

No change in the top 4. Santa Clara dropped off and USD is clinging to a ranking. Oregon also dropped off.

Soccer America Women's Top 25
Monday, Oct 12, 2009 7:00 AM ET
[COLLEGE] Stanford, Portland, North Carolina and UCLA remain 1-2-3-4 in the Soccer America Women's Top 25. For the rest of the Top 25 ...

Soccer America Women's Top 25
TEAM (RECORD) LAST WEEK
1. Stanford (13-0-0) 1
2. Portland (11-1-0) 2
3. North Carolina (10-1-1) 3
4. UCLA (11-1-1) 4
5. South Carolina (13-0-1) 8
6. Florida State (10-2-1) 5
7. Boston College (11-2-0) 7
8. Notre Dame (10-3-1) 9
9. USC (10-3-0) 14
10. Maryland (10-2-1) 17
11. Virginia Tech (10-3-0) 6
12. BYU (11-2-2) 18
13. Wake Forest (10-2-1) 21
14. UCF (10-3-1) NR
15. Michigan State (7-1-4) 10
16. Texas A&M (9-4-1) 23
17. California (8-3-1) 19
18. St. John's (10-3-1) 11
19. Rutgers (10-2-3) 12
20. LSU (9-3-2) 15
21. Mississippi (9-3-1) 24
22. Marquette (9-4-2) NR
23. Ohio State (10-2-1) NR
24. Georgia (11-2-1) 16
25. San Diego (7-4-2) NR

Has Stanford played USC or UCLA yet?

athleticjames wrote:Has Stanford played USC or UCLA yet?

No, this past weekend was the first weekend of conference play in the Pac-10. So far, Stanford has just played the Oregon schools.

UCLA (Friday) and USC (Sunday) are this coming weekend.

Very rarely do I root for UCLA or USC, but this weekend in women's soccer is probably the exception!

Given that we already beat Cal, wouldn't it be best for us if they were the team to beat Stanford? Or UW or WSU. Like we have a choice, but you know what I mean.

Harry Redknapp wrote:Very rarely do I root for UCLA or USC, but this weekend in women's soccer is probably the exception!

Given that we already beat Cal, wouldn't it be best for us if they were the team to beat Stanford? Or UW or WSU. Like we have a choice, but you know what I mean.

I'm not sure I want UCLA beating Stanford. That would make it more crowded at the top of the RPI with more teams competing for a #1 seed.

I agree Geez. I think we are best served by conceding Stanford one of the top seeds and hoping that they knock UCLA down a notch. With two losses and a tie, it will be hard for UCLA to get a #1 ahead of us. If both UCLA and Stanford have one loss, I can imagine both getting #1 seeds and the NCAA being reluctant to put 3 #1 seeds on the West Coast.

eProf wrote:

athleticjames wrote:Has Stanford played USC or UCLA yet?

No, this past weekend was the first weekend of conference play in the Pac-10. So far, Stanford has just played the Oregon schools.

UCLA (Friday) and USC (Sunday) are this coming weekend.

Actually, it's USC on Friday and UCLA on Sunday

Probably best for Portland if UCLA loses to Stanford and USC beats Stanford. UCLA remains in a very good position to usurp UP as a #1 seed. Whereas USC beating Stanford jeopardizes Stanford's #1 seed position with no risk that USC will challenge UP for a top seed.

New RPI reports now are available covering games through October ll, using the following link: http://sites.google.com/site/rpifordivisioniwomenssoccer/Home

The link will take you to the RPI website Home Page. From there, go to the "RPI Reports" page.

Thanks, as always, UPSF for the update. One question lingers:

UCF is lurking close behind us in the rankings. They play in a relatively weak conference, thus may well win their remaining games, which will be against relatively lower-rated opponents. Is the strength of their remaining schedule already figured in or will they begin to lose points on Elements 2 and 3 as they play these lower-rated teams. (This will apply to us vis-a-vis UCLA and perhaps FSU as well, since they play in conferences rated much above the WCC.)

Another question, actually: Have to done any experimenting with alternative end-of-season scenarios? For example, could you tell us what would happen if UP, Stanford, and UNC win out and everyone else (esp. FSU and UCLA) loses only to teams ranked above them? It would be interesting to see that calculation just to have a "base case" that would prevail if there were no further upsets.

SoreKnees wrote:Thanks, as always, UPSF for the update. One question lingers:

UCF is lurking close behind us in the rankings. They play in a relatively weak conference, thus may well win their remaining games, which will be against relatively lower-rated opponents. Is the strength of their remaining schedule already figured in or will they begin to lose points on Elements 2 and 3 as they play these lower-rated teams. (This will apply to us vis-a-vis UCLA and perhaps FSU as well, since they play in conferences rated much above the WCC.)

Another question, actually: Have to done any experimenting with alternative end-of-season scenarios? For example, could you tell us what would happen if UP, Stanford, and UNC win out and everyone else (esp. FSU and UCLA) loses only to teams ranked above them? It would be interesting to see that calculation just to have a "base case" that would prevail if there were no further upsets.

First question, about UCF: I've thought about this quite a bit, because they definitely are lurking there and, in fact if I recall correctly, are ahead of us in the unadjusted RPI (which I actually think is the better system, but I guess I like it so far this year). Yes, Conference USA is weaker than the WCC, and significantly so. This should drag down UCF's RPI over the course of the season, as their RPI strength of schedule elements so far include only the teams they already have played. Further, they pretty much already have played the top of CUSA, so now we're going to start seeing the effects of their playing the weaker conference teams. On the other hand, they played an excellent non-conference schedule and if the non-conference teams do well over the balance of the season, that will help their RPI. Plus, they have an outstanding win over Florida State, which will make Florida State's position difficult if UCF wins out.

For the Pilots, they clearly need to win out to protect their position. They already have played the weakest team in the WCC, which is good. Relative to UCF, the Pilots will benefit from the WCC's significantly greater strength. One thing I wonder about, though, is how the five Pac Ten teams the Pilots played will do from here on out and how that will affect the Pilots' strength of schedule. I guess we'll find out.

Regarding UCLA and FSU, you're right that they will have some strength of schedule gains since the Pac Ten and ACC have higher ratings than the WCC. We saw how that played itself out last year. However, those two conferences are not as much stronger than the ACC this year than they were last year. Again, we'll just have to see how this plays itself out.

It will be excellent if one of the Pac Ten teams the Pilots have played can beat Stanford or UCLA. Results against common opponents is one of the factors the NCAA considers.

I haven't done any experiments projecting what happens if teams win out, in terms of RPI rankings. However, if you go to the nc-soccer website, when you click on the unadjusted RPI box for a team, it shows the evolution of the team's RPI over the course of the season and what the team's RPI would look like if all other teams stood still and it won the balance of its games. That's about the best you can come to what you're looking for. There are lots of moving parts to the RPI system as the season progresses, so there's no way to program them all in, but if you use that feature at nc-soccer for each of the teams you're interested in, you can get some sense of where their RPIs will be if all of them win out.

The nc-soccer site is a really great resource.

Thanks for the info!

Appears that UP has remained in 4th in this weeks coaches poll, behind Stanford, UNC, and UCLA. one of those 3 wont be there next week, should be interesting to see which.