Postseason?

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Postseason?

Post by Guest on Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:13 pm

Why not? Pilots are ranked just below the top 100 by most metrics (the flawed RPI calc is a notable exception). I would assume the Pilots would happily accept an invitation to any of the tournaments, so as of right now I'd say they're a good bet to see some postseason action.

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Re: Postseason?

Post by Guest on Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:27 pm

Warning, long post. I did some spreadsheet work and projected out all four postseason tournaments using Kenpom rankings. Rules -

- current highest ranked team in each conference gets the 32 auto bids
- next 36 highest ranked teams get at-large bid to the NCAAs
- next 32 highest ranked teams get into the NIT
- next 16 highest ranked teams get into the CBI
- next 32 highest ranked mid-majors get into the CIT
- nobody declines tourney invites

Yeah, still over a month out and they're just rankings, but I'm going to guess this won't be all that inaccurate once the tournament draws happen. The wildcard is how many upsets happen in the conference tourneys, which has a ripple effect down through the posteason given that regular season champions have automatic berths into the NIT.

Current Pilots projection according to this would be a solid CIT team. Listed as a CBI team here, but the teams that don't win their conference tourneys but get at-large bids or NIT auto berths will move everyone down a bit (I'd guess there'll be 6 to 10 of these).


Last edited by DeanMurdoch on Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:45 am; edited 4 times in total

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Re: Postseason?

Post by Guest on Mon Feb 03, 2014 6:49 am

Alternatively, the Pilots could just win three games in Vegas and not have to worry about playing in a pay-for-play tourney Very Happy

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Re: Postseason?

Post by DoubleDipper on Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:54 am

Umm, Deaner, is there a chance the temps in Regina will warm soon and you can take a break to get outside away from the computer? Razz

Love the work, and appreciate the effort, but.....

The groundhog may have seen his shadow which may or may not mean 6 more months of winter in Saskatchewan, but here's a reminder of better days ahead:


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Re: Postseason?

Post by Guest on Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:25 am

DoubleDipper wrote:Umm, Deaner, is there a chance the temps in Regina will warm soon and you can take a break to get outside away from the computer? Razz

Love the work, and appreciate the effort, but.....

I'll take that as a compliment, but the 14 minutes between the first post and the last post was all it took. Copy all ratings into Excel, sort by conference, take top team from each. Copy next 36 for NCAA, next 32 for NIT, next 16 for CBI. The longest part was deleting all non-mid majors to come up with the CBI list.

Work smarter, not harder. Then bore everyone to tears, that's how I roll.

It's -18 here today. Warm enough to walk the dog, cold enough to get irritated by you posting a picture from our three weeks of summer.

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Re: Postseason?

Post by Guest on Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:50 pm

Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology is out...and the WCC remains a tenuous two-bid conference. Gonzaga's in there as a No. 7 seed and BYU is still in - but the Cougars are hanging on by a thread (the second last team in at this point).

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

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Re: Postseason?

Post by DoubleDipper on Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:04 pm

So, what do you think, Deaner?

For the Pilots to make it to the CBI or CIT do they need to win at least 2 of the next 4 games and win a couple in Las Vegas too?

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Re: Postseason?

Post by up7587 on Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:25 pm

Don't they either need to pay the $'s to host a game (ala OSU), or agree to be cannon fodder for someone else paying the $'s? (Not a huge fan on the alternative post-season tournaments.)

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Re: Postseason?

Post by PilotNut on Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:26 pm

I agree with you, 7587, except that it is a good travel experience for the program (like going to Hawaii a couple years ago), and they get extra practice time.

The Pilots have not fared well in elimination play under Reveno, so any additional exposure there would be welcome in my book.

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Re: Postseason?

Post by Guest on Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:21 pm

up7587 wrote:Don't they either need to pay the $'s to host a game (ala OSU), or agree to be cannon fodder for someone else paying the $'s? (Not a huge fan on the alternative post-season tournaments.)

Cannon fodder? There's not going to be a whole lot of competitive difference between the Pilots any team that doesn't make the NCAA tourney, including NIT teams - let alone if we're talking about a CBI team which didn't make the NIT field either.

DoubleDipper wrote:For the Pilots to make it to the CBI or CIT do they need to win at least 2 of the next 4 games and win a couple in Las Vegas too?

Couple road wins over the next four sure wouldn't hurt. At this point USF is ranked pretty close to the Pilots in everything except for RPI where the Dons have a significant advantage (87 to 156). Never know what each tournament's selection committee will take into account, but most of them say there's a strong emphasis placed on "recent performance" when it comes time to pass out the invites.

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Re: Postseason?

Post by DoubleDipper on Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:37 pm

If the Pilots do make it to the postseason, Thomas will have had a lot to do with it.

A nice bit of recognition for "old man" van der Mars.....

http://campusinsiders.com/videos/9mbWtwazo7r6Jl3ZQSBe-jmKHr8jrVsW

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Re: Postseason?

Post by Guest on Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:21 am

As it stands -

NCAA - Gonzaga, BYU
NIT - SMC
NIT/CBI - USF (right on the NIT bubble)

For the CIT, I'd guess that USD with its strong finish will be in regardless. Pacific has the highest RPI of the remaining teams so I think they'd be in if they beat Santa Clara. And Pepperdine and Portland need a win in Vegas even to be considered, because both are at 15-15 and the CIT has never taken a team under .500 as far as I can tell.

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Re: Postseason?

Post by up7587 on Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:33 am

Following up on my thoughts about CBI and such post season tourneys, OSU bought a CBI berth with their 16-15 record. They paid $35,000 for it. The game was against Radford in Corvallis. Announced attendance was 1,351, but I saw the pictures, and agree with other commenters that there were about 300 people there. So they lost money on the game, they played in front of empty stands, and they lost the game. Not a positive experience.

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