Tournament Seeding

Last weekend of conerence play before the tournament. We could really use to get that fourth seed.

First, we need to win our final two games vs. USD and SMC. Then, should SCU lose to either LMU or Pepp, we get the fourth seed. Should they not, and SMC loses to both us and Gonzaga (and Gonzaga also beats USD), then Gonzaga would be conference champs and SCU would get the tie breaker over us because they have beat Gonzaga. If SMC loses to us and beats Gonzaga, they would be conference champs and we would win the tie breaker having beat SMC. Of course, Pepperdine could still be in the mix if we lose a game and they win both of their final games. They would likely beat us in the tie breaker given their win over USF (should SMC lose to Gonzaga).

Wow. There is a lot of action this last weekend in the WCC. I would really love to get us into that fourth seed. Also, I had a dream last night that we made it to the NCAA tournament.....

Basically we can get the #4 seed in two ways:

If we win our last two games and SMC beats the Zags, we're the #4 seed no matter what Santa Clara does.

If we win our last two games and the Zags beat SMC, we're the #5 seed if Santa Clara wins its last two games, but the #4 seed if they lose one.

If we go 1-1 and Santa Clara loses twice. (Even if Pepperdine goes 2-0, that would mean they beat USF, so SMC would still be the #2 seed in that case and we have the tie-breaker over them.)

Pretty much any other scenerio means we get the #5 seed.

Moral of the story? Win our games, and hope the Gaels beat the Zags.

If we go 1-1, SMC goes 2-0, and SCU goes 1-1, don't we have the tie-breaker for 4th place? I consider this the most likely scenario, with the danger being that SCU sweeps to finish 1-up on us.

Ah, yes, you're right!

And now that I think about it... if we go 0-2 (God forbid), there's still a chance for the #4 seed if Santa Clara also goes 0-2 and Pepperdine beats Santa Clara but loses to USF.

Ha ha, oh man, no I'm doubting everything I wrote earlier. Maybe I didn't get enough sleep last night.

Bah, I just wish SCU wasn't playing in the friendly confines of the Leavey Center....

Maybe Max Goode will quit at halftime and the players will coach themselves to victory over SCU like in Varsity Blues, anyway we can make sure Paul Walker gets a ticket?

It could be interesting if the following scenario happens:

We beat USD, GU beats SMC (therefore they are tied 10-3)...

If we a win @SMC, (and SCU matches our record of 2-0 for the weekend) we would remain tied with SCU at 8-6, and therefore the win on Saturday @SMC would actually knock us down to the #5 seed (as SMC would then fall behind GU, and SCU beat GU once, winning the tie breaker over us)... but if we lose @SMC (and SCU also goes 1-1 over the weekend) we would keep the #4 seed...

We really need SMC to beat GU, as well as win our games, to have the best chances of the bye...

So...... Go Pilots, Gaels (on Thursday), Lions & Waves!

PilotNut wrote:It could be interesting if the following scenario happens:

We beat USD, GU beats SMC (therefore they are tied 10-3)...

If we a win @SMC, (and SCU matches our record of 2-0 for the weekend) we would remain tied with SCU at 8-6, and therefore the win on Saturday @SMC would actually knock us down to the #5 seed (as SMC would then fall behind GU, and SCU beat GU once, winning the tie breaker over us)... but if we lose @SMC (and SCU also goes 1-1 over the weekend) we would keep the #4 seed...

We really need SMC to beat GU, as well as win our games, to have the best chances of the bye...

So...... Go Pilots, Gaels (on Thursday), Lions & Waves!

Wait. So if we were to throw our game against SMC and both us and SCU went 1-1, would we stay in the fourth spot???

Rochin54 wrote:Wait. So if we were to throw our game against SMC and both us and SCU went 1-1, would we stay in the fourth spot???

As long as SMC remains the #1 seed. SMC swept SCU, but lost at least once to us...

PilotNut wrote:

Rochin54 wrote:Wait. So if we were to throw our game against SMC and both us and SCU went 1-1, would we stay in the fourth spot???

As long as SMC remains the #1 seed. SMC swept SCU, but lost at least once to us...

So if SCU loses to LMU, GU beats SMC, and we beat USD, then we should lose on purpose to SMC so that they remain the champ for seeding purpose, which would lock us into the 4th seed. Conversely, if the above happened and we beat SMC, then GU would be the tie breaker and we would get the 5 seed as SCU beat GU??!!!

The simple way to look at this: If we end up tied with SCU (regardless of the actual record), the tie will be broken by results vs. the rest of the conference. If SMC is the #1 seed, we win the tie breaker due to our win over the Gaels. If GU is the #1 seed, SCU wins the tie breaker due to their win over GU...

I'm just saying that I think it's awesome that there is a scenario where it may be better for us to lose a game on purpose so we can get a higher seed in the conference tournament.

And to think I was under the impression that tanking on purpose was exclusive to the NBA! I need to stop thinking about it before something messy happens...

It is NEVER a good idea to tank a game on purpose, even if it would get you a higher seed. It's better to have to play an extra game than piss off the basketball gods.

Rochin54 wrote:I'm just saying that I think it's awesome that there is a scenario where it may be better for us to lose a game on purpose so we can get a higher seed in the conference tournament.

Well........ one doesn't.

Perhaps I'm completely missing the boat, but we currently are tied with Santa Clara. If what Pilot Nut described happens (SCU goes 2-0 and UP is 1-0 heading into the SMC game), we are screwed either way.

Because if we win, GU gets the #1 seed and gives SCU the tie-breaker over us. But if we lose, we will be 7-7 while SCU will be 8-6, so they get the #4 seed by virture of their better record.

What we really need is Saint Mary's (or San Diego) to beat the Zags, and for us to take care of our own business.

If we go into Saturday with a win against USD, SCU a win vs LMU and SMC a loss to GU, then we would need SMC to win (against us) in order to have a tiebreaker against SCU (and they would have to lose to Pepp) to take the fourth seed. The way the timing of the games works out, we wouldn't know in advance whether to throw the game given the start times, but our only means to get the tiebreaker in that scenario would be for us to lose to SMC (giving them co-champs but the #1 seed) and have SCU lose to Pepp (which UP7587 alluded to in a previous post as being a part of the most likely outcome of the weekend). I THINK this would be the scenario where we would "want" to throw the game. BUT, our tip time is only an hour after the SCU/Pepp tip, so we couldn't be sure.

This works out in my head, but who the heck knows. Ok, I'm done.

If one train leaves New York travelling west at 60 mph...

They meet in Fargo.

At 6:00 PM

If we go into Saturday with a win against USD, SCU a win vs LMU and SMC a loss to GU, then we would need SMC to win (against us) in order to have a tiebreaker against SCU (and they would have to lose to Pepp) to take the fourth seed... I THINK this would be the scenario where we would "want" to throw the game.

If SCU loses to Pepp, why would we want to throw our game with SMC? If we beat SMC, we would have a better record than SCU and we get the #4 seed outright, no tiebreaker needed.

Stonehouse wrote:What we really need is Saint Mary's (or San Diego) to beat the Zags, and for us to take care of our own business.

Yeah, that!

oh brody wrote:If SCU loses to Pepp, why would we want to throw our game with SMC? If we beat SMC, we would have a better record than SCU and we get the #4 seed outright, no tiebreaker needed.

SCU would also have to lose to LMU for us to win it outright... If we both go 1-1 this weekend, we are still tied...

I was referring to Rochin54's scenario where we beat USD and SCU beats LMU but loses to Pepp. In that situation, we wouldn't want to throw our SMC game just to win the tie breaker we would have the ability to win the 4 seed outright with a victory over SMC.

Oh. That scenario.

That's it, someone make a flow chart already...

PilotNut wrote:Oh. That scenario.

That's it, someone make a flow chart already...

Haha! Seriously. I can't event think about what I was thinking about anymore! Apologies for getting us into this mess!!

Go Pilots!