Re: 2014-15 Opponents Thread: How are they doing?

[DoubleDipper]

SMC survives in double-OT. Phew.

A good result for the Pilots, but with road games remaining against BYU, GU, and UP, it might mean the beginning of the end for Coach Bill Grier.  Truly one of the gentlemen of the game, his teams have had a difficult time finishing off wins during his tenure.  

It was Senior Day at the Slim Gym today, so the fans said goodbye to Johnny Dee and Christopher Anderson and others.  I look forward to Pilots fans recognizing them in the Chiles Center in a couple of weeks when the play their last regular-season games for USD.

Dee, once a walk-on at USD scored his 2,000th point in today's loss to SMC....how was he missed by the recruiters??

[Guest]

How quickly a couple of wins can turn things around...from this time last week to now:

RPI: 140 to 125

Which is 4th in the WCC:

GU: 8
SMC: 64
BYU: 66
UP: 125
PU: 137
USD: 175
SCU: 185
USF: 204
LMU: 208
UOP: 236

One Week later, RPI is
GU 8
SMC 57
BYU 61
UP 119
PU 131
USD 173
SCU 186
USF 194
LMU 204
UOP 243

KenPom has
107 San Diego
110 Pepperdine
116 Portland

[Dean Murdoch]

http://www.midmajormadness.com/2015/2/16/8049515/byu-saint-marys-wcc-ncaa-tournament-nit

Will Maupin of Mid-Major Madness predicts the WCC postseason...which really isn't too hard to predict at this point. Gonzaga to NCAAs, SMC/BYU to the NIT, Pepperdine/Portland to the CBI/CIT.

[DoubleDipper]

http://www.midmajormadness.com/2015/2/16/8049515/byu-saint-marys-wcc-ncaa-tournament-nit

Will Maupin of Mid-Major Madness predicts the WCC postseason...which really isn't too hard to predict at this point. Gonzaga to NCAAs, SMC/BYU to the NIT, Pepperdine/Portland to the CBI/CIT.

About as good a methodology as one can use, I guess, but Maupin did not take into account the Pilots upset of both SMC and BYU to close out the season.  

Admittedly, the Pilots will have to play some of their best ball of the season and get some positive breaks to get those results, but I think they've shown they are capable recently.

I really believe SMC is a better TEAM than BYU, and they are tough and physical with their 5 former Pac-12 players.  I think there are five....a look at SMC's roster lists everyone's "previous school" as their high school.  

[Dean Murdoch]

About as good a methodology as one can use, I guess, but Maupin did not take into account the Pilots upset of both SMC and BYU to close out the season.  

You made me crunch the numbers.

3-1 in the last four games and another win in Vegas, and the Pilots are looking at 20 wins with an RPI in the high 80s or low 90s. Given that and the selection committee's affinity for teams that have come on strong at the end of the year, they'd have to be given NIT consideration with that finish.

[DoubleDipper]

All ten teams are playing Thursday, but the only road team expected to win is Gonzaga.

Instead of giving the Las Vegas odds....here are the more informed predictions from KenPom:

SMC by 7 over UP (TheW.tv @ 8 )
GU by 18 @ UOP (ROOT @ 8 )
BYU by 11 over SDU (ESPNU @ 7)
PU by 9 over SCU
LMU by 1 over USF

[PilotNut]

How informed is it if BYU is playing "SDU"?  

Besides a Pilot victory, we should root for BYU over USD.  As for the Pepp/SCU game, there are 2 scenarios:

Optimistic Pilot fans should root for SCU to beat Pepp, in hopes that we go 3-1 or 4-0 to finish out, and we catch and/or pass them in the standings for 4th place.  (Remember they have a favorable remaining schedule at home vs the lower place teams; seedings wise, they have the tiebreaker over us via the season sweep of BYU even if we beat SMC).  

Pessimistic Pilot fans should root for Pepp, if you think we will have a hard time catching or jumping ahead of Pepp, and we should want SCU to have another loss to protect our lead in case we lose a few games to close out conference play.

[Dean Murdoch]

Not sure about optimstic or pessimistic, but generally nervous Pilots fan checking in here.

One of the best things about this four-game win streak is that the Pilots are in a position where the out-of-town scoreboard isn't even a concern at this point. They need no outside help for the conservative goal of finishing top six (just need to win once) and no outside help for the goal of staying in the #5 position (need to win twice).

They can just take care of business and watch with mild interest at what the rest of the conference is doing

[Guest]

All ten teams are playing Thursday, but the only road team expected to win is Gonzaga.

Instead of giving the Las Vegas odds....here are the more informed predictions from KenPom:

SMC by 7 over UP (TheW.tv @ 8 )
GU by 18 @ UOP (ROOT @ 8 )
BYU by 11 over SDU (ESPNU @ 7)
PU by 9 over SCU
LMU by 1 over USF

PU won by 9. USF hammering LMU at the half, in your crazy game of the night.

[Guest]

Another d@mn scoring drought and a 10-0 run.

[PilotNut]

I guess the good news is that we didn't lose any ground standings-wise with both SCU and USD losing tonight.

Good news: Pacific is hanging around with the Zags, so hopefully they will wear themselves out a bit.

[Guest]

UOP gave GU all they wanted tonight, falling 86-74. Pilots will need to play much better to avoid a road sweep, 'cause Wiltjer's not bring 45 points for the Pilots.

[Guest]

All ten teams are playing Thursday, but the only road team expected to win is Gonzaga.

Instead of giving the Las Vegas odds....here are the more informed predictions from KenPom:

SMC by 7 over UP (TheW.tv @ 8 )  SMC by 17
GU by 18 @ UOP (ROOT @ 8 )        GU by 12
BYU by 11 over SDU (ESPNU @ 7)   BYU by 13
PU by 9 over SCU                           PU by 9
LMU by 1 over USF                         USF by 27

[Guest]

I guess the good news is that we didn't lose any ground standings-wise with both SCU and USD losing tonight.

Good news: Pacific is hanging around with the Zags, so hopefully they will wear themselves out a bit.

Pilots still in 5th place, tied in the win column with 6th place USD. Torero's last 2 games are @GU and @UP. Unless Pilots can win the next two, 5th place will be on the line the last regular season game of the year (I think USD would hold the tie-breaker with a better win).

[PilotNut]

Pepp finishes at home vs USF & LMU.  To pass them for the 4th seed, we would have to win out and the Waves would have to lose both; I don't see this happening.

USD is @GU & @UP next week.  In terms of tiebreakers, USD has wins over Pepp & BYU and a loss to us.  7587 is right--our game against them will likely have big seeding implications.  Even if USD beats the Zags and we lose @Pac & BYU, a win over USD would give us the #5 seed (season sweep).

SCU: @LMU, Pac, SMC.  They would have to win out, and we would have to lose all 3 to overtake us (we own the tiebreaker).

USF: @Pepp, SMC, Pac.  The Dons would need to win at least 2 of these with UP losses; in terms of tiebreakers, there are still many permutations with their best win so far being Pepp (with opportunities for a sweep of the Waves or a win over SMC).  I say we win out and take care of ourselves.

LMU & Pac cannot catch us.  We cannot catch SMC, BYU or GU.

Sooo... If we are able to beat Pacific Saturday and Pepp beats USF, we would be guaranteed a top 6 finish and rule out the dreaded Friday games in Vegas.

[Dean Murdoch]

USF holds on for a tight win over Pepperdine, and that'll pretty much settle the 3/4 positions (barring another Pepperdine loss to LMU and the Pilots winning out, of course).

Gonzaga 1, SMC 2, BYU 3, Pepperdine 4.

And USF only one win behind the Pilots and USD now. Pilots will be well aware of this result heading into tonight's game, I'm sure.

[jumpstop]

If things play out how one would assume they would, it appears to me that the 5 and 6 seeds may very well come down to the San Diego / Pilots game next Saturday. I know this is a crazy question, but is there any thought out there that finishing as the 6 seed instead of 5 would be better so the Pilots can avoid Gonzaga until the final round? Or would you rather have momentum going into the tourney?

...sorry if this idea has been discussed here before... I'm guessing it has, I just haven't seen it.

[PilotNut]

If you assume the top 4 seeds as GU, SMC, BYU, Pepp... The #5 seed would play #4 (Pepp), with the winner likely facing #1 (GU) in the semis. The #6 seed would play #3 (BYU), with the winner likely facing #2 SMC.... so pick your poison. I would much rather play Pepp in the quarters instead of BYU.

I would rather go up against Pepp, and if we can pull out a win (the Pilots have been dreadful in tourney play lately), then likely face the Zags. Its Vegas.... roll the dice against the top seed. I think it would be better for the program to play a team that many will be watching to see if they deserve the #1 seed in the NCAAs... and just maybe pull off the upset.

If we have to play BYU, then SMC, that is a pretty tough road to travel... we need to be playing our way into some sort of post season tourney.

[Dean Murdoch]

Just make it as far in Vegas as possible. Both teams are far from an easy matchup, but Pepperdine sure looks like the team you'd rather see in the QF rather than a BYU team that's heating up.

[DoubleDipper]

It's fine for us to speculate on possible outcomes, but right now the team is thinking about only one thing....beating UOP.

They just left the hotel here in Stockton, and they were focused on the task at hand....one game at a time.

[Guest]

Road teams are 2 for 2 so far today, USF over PU and SCU over LMU. Both teams opened up big first half leads, and hung on.

After beating SMC and BYU, PU has lost 4 of 5. They only have one game left, with LMU.

[PilotNut]

40-29 SMC with the halftime lead in Moraga...  SMC was up by as many as 15...

[Guest]

GU comes back in the 2nd half to win by 10, 70-60.

[PilotNut]

Helluva a GU comeback. Wow.

[PilotNut]

After tonight's action:
-GU claims the WCC title outright after an amazing comeback in Moraga
-SMC & BYU claim top 3 finishes
-UP and USD are now tied for 5th place. Even if USD wins in Spokane and the Pilots lose to BYU on Thursday, the Pilots can earn the 5th seed with a win over USD on Saturday (season sweep tiebreaker). If USD loses in Spokane and UP beats BYU, the winner of the Saturday game still determines the 5th seed.
-USF & SCU are still in the hunt for a top 6 finish. USF and SCU have SMC and Pac at home to finish conference play.
-LMU is hurting, dealing with significant injuries.
-After the Pilots' performance, I am going to go cry in some beer.