Re: 2014-15 Opponents Thread: How are they doing?

[DoubleDipper]

Just think if we had held on to beat UNLV and OSU...  Our RPI would be quite impressive.  

Or, on the other hand, just think if UP had lost to San Jose St. or Sacramento St.....and all the other D1 teams!

Bright side up!

Wait until March when the RPI could mean the difference between playing in the postseason or watching UP's seniors for the last time in Las Vegas....that's when RPI is important.  Until then, just prepare and grind!  

[PilotNut]

Oh I agree with you there... I'm just saying that had we beat UNLV and OSU, we *could have* ended up "in the discussion" at the end of the year....

[NoPoNeighbor]

Last season, USF lost all of its games to the top 3, and beat everyone else, and went to the NIT.

USF actually split with SMC last season, with their home win over the Gaels a critical part of a late six-game win streak. I doubt the Dons get into the NIT without that win.

Back to this season...Pilots up to #90 in the RPI. Would probably be in the high 70s if San Jose State wasn't dragging it down.

Right you are! Thank you!

[NoPoNeighbor]

This is interesting... Only one game between two of our Mid-6 teams tomorrow: USD at SCU. The Toreros are going for the rare road sweep (though maybe it won't turn out to be so rare this year, with the way road teams are performing in WCC play so far!).

[DoubleDipper]

Looking over at realtimerpi. The teams we have lost to are 37-12 against D1 competition. We're not losing to bad teams...with the exception of maybe Oregon State.

I'm not sure why some think OSU is a "bad" team....I've even heard alums say they don't belong in the Pac-12 they are so bad.

OSU is 9-3 and ranked #112 by KenPom (UP is #120)., but they have moved up in the rankings every week since the season began when they were rated at #226.

OSU is currently ranked 10th in their conference, ahead of USC and WSU, but with league play beginning for them tomorrow in Eugene against #71 UO, it could be the start of a few surprises.  I am very impressed with the job Coach Tinkle has done with what he's got, and his recruits for next year are some of the best in the west.

[dholcombe]

Oregon State plays really good defense, but aren't flashy. By saying they're maybe bad I meant they're probably near the bottom of the top 50% of teams. Squarely outside the top 25%. Bad in the way you might call a small conference champion bad when it comes ncaa tournament time, not they're going to lose every game by 30 bad.

[Guest]

Oregon State plays really good defense, but aren't flashy. By saying they're maybe bad I meant they're probably near the bottom of the top 50% of teams. Squarely outside the top 25%. Bad in the way you might call a small conference champion bad when it comes ncaa tournament time, not they're going to lose every game by 30 bad.

So far they only have one road win.

[DoubleDipper]

But I'm feeling good about this team. I think this team can finish in the Top 4. I really do.

Here’s how it looks at the end of week two (with RPI):

SMC 4-0 (62)
GU 3-0 (6)
BYU 3-1 (29)
PU 2-1 (233)
SCU 2-2 (154)
UP 1-2 (104)
USD 1-3 (177)
UOP 1-3 (229)
USF 1-3 (214)
LMU 0-3 (257)

It may take another tongue lashing from Coach Reveno to keep the guys playing tough, but with SCU and USF coming to the Chiles Center this coming week, the Pilots cannot allow a letdown after their competitive losses to GU and BYU.

UP and GU wins against SCU and USF next week will go a long way toward UP finishing in the Top-4 in March.

I would truly love to see Coach Rex Walter's team go home at the end of next week with a 1-5 record!

[NoPoNeighbor]

Updated Intra-Mid-6 records:

SMC: 3-0
UP: 1-0
USD: 1-1
Pepp: 0-1
SCU: 0-1
USF: 0-2

The Mid-6 are currently 0-3 against the top-2, and 3-0 against the bottom-2.

Update after 1/3 games:

SMC: 3-0
UP: 1-0
SCU: 1-1
USD: 1-2
Pepp: 0-1
USF: 0-2

Combined record against top-2: 0-5
Against bottom-2: 5-0

[Guest]

Second bracketology of the year by Lunardi is out - http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Gonzaga a 2 seed (in Seattle) and BYU a 10 seed working on the right side of the bubble. He's got the WCC as a 3-bid league right now, but only because SMC has been given the projected auto-bid - and a 12 seed - because of their WCC-best 4-0 current record (if you're gonna go to all this work for a full bracketology, why not find a better way to project auto bids?)

[dholcombe]

Most likely because figuring out better auto bids doesn't affect click rate (aka revenue).

[DoubleDipper]

(Mid-6 vs. Mid-6) Update after 1/3 games:
SMC: 3-0
UP: 1-0
SCU: 1-1
USD: 1-2
Pepp: 0-1
USF: 0-2

Only one head-to-head Mid-6 game on Thursday (KenPom predicts the home teams will prevail):
SCU @ UP (UP by 7)
LMU @ USD (USD by 13)
USF @ GU (GU by 21)
PU @ BYU (15)

[Guest]

I thought looking at past RPI selections for NIT at-large berths would give an indication of what the Pilots would have to do to get into that tourney for the first time ever - so a warning, gonna nerd out here for a second.

I looked at the last four years of the NIT...these are the RPIs of each team selected for an at-large berth. The numbers in parentheses are the amount of at-larges and auto bids in any given year.

2014 (19+13) - 33, 38, 49, 50, 53, 54, 61, 63, 67, 67, 69, 70, 71, 74, 77, 79, 80, 83, 88.
2013 (22+10) - 34, 55, 56, 58, 60, 61, 64, 65, 67, 67, 69, 71, 73, 74, 74, 78, 82, 84, 86, 86, 88, 92.
2012 (21+11) - 43, 54, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 66, 72, 73, 75, 76, 79, 81, 83, 85, 86, 89, 96, 102, 130.
2011 (18+14) - 40, 42, 44, 49, 51, 57, 58, 60, 64, 65, 66, 73, 74, 75, 78, 81, 87, 90.

It seems pretty obvious that unless you have something absolutely special on the resume, a team starts being seriously considered for an NIT selection at RPI 90 and up with very few outliers.

Step 2, you can use RPIForecast.com to project future RPIs. Using most likely scenarios and tournament opponents as USD in the first round and Gonzaga in the second (if applicable), here's how this site projects UP's RPI to end up at given their post-tournament record -

22-10 (12-6 WCC, 1-1 at tourney) - 78 RPI
21-11 (11-7 WCC, 1-1 at tourney) - 91 RPI
21-10 (12-6 WCC, 0-1 at tourney) - 95 RPI
20-12 (10-8 WCC, 1-1 at tourney) - 106 RPI
20-11 (11-7 WCC, 0-1 at tourney) - 108 RPI
19-13 (9-9 WCC, 1-1 at tourney) - 119 RPI
19-12 (10-8 WCC, 0-1 at tourney) - 120 RPI
18-13 (9-9 WCC, 0-1 at tourney) - 145 RPI

Long post short - seems like 21 wins will be the bare minimum required for the Pilots to be considered for an NIT berth. Or they could just win three in Vegas and go dancing, that'd be nice too.

[DoubleDipper]

This weekend will go a long way toward determining if the Pilots can achieve a 10-8 WCC record and record 20 wins for the season.

Without Bryce and with KB just now attempting a comeback....others may have to fill new roles if they are to pull off two wins.

An NIT berth would be nice, but at this point I believe any thought of the NIT is looking way too far ahead and may just be a result of being stuck inside in sub-freezing weather.   Let's see if the Pilots can win at least 5 of their next 6 before getting too excited about the postseason.

Good "nerd" work, Deaner!

[PilotNut]

Good nerding, DM!

Wins vs. UNLV and OSU would help big time, right about now.... But I did notice that UNLV is now 0-2 in MWC conference play, after a home loss to archrival Nevada last night. Ouch.

We need all of our previous opponents to win a lot of games to help our resume. (A win over BYU at home would help a lot, too...)

[Guest]

An NIT berth would be nice, but at this point I believe any thought of the NIT is looking way too far ahead and may just be a result of being stuck inside in sub-freezing weather.

Undeniably too early. But here we are, about at the midpoint of the season and - for probably the first time since 2011 - it's not completely ridiculous to still be looking at this!

On an aside, I was shocked at how similar each year looks in terms of RPIs of selected teams. I thought given how much the selection committees like to say "we don't use RPI more than any other tool" that they would look a LOT more sporadic than that. Pretty clear to me, top 90 before you get consideration unless you've done something pretty spectacular on the way.

[PilotNut]

Congrats to Pepp for a big win at the Marriott Center tonight, 67-61 over BYU!
GU beat USF 88-57 in Spokane.
USD won at home vs. LMU, 59-50

[DoubleDipper]

Congrats to Pepp for a big win at the Marriott Center tonight, 67-61 over BYU!
GU beat USF 88-57 in Spokane.
USD won at home vs. LMU, 59-50

I just finished watching the recording of the PU vs. BYU game.  PU's defense was stifling....and PU led the entire game.  BYU came into the game as the 2nd best team in the nation in scoring with 88 ppg. 

Good win for PU....a Mid-6 team.

[NoPoNeighbor]

Good win for PU....a Mid-6 team.

In fact, this is the first "unexpected" result for any of the Mid-6 teams (unexpected = win over the top-2, or loss to the bottom-2). And on the road, no less!

Here are the updated "Intra-Mid-6" standings, through 1/8:

SMC: 3-0
UP: 2-0
SCU: 1-2
USD: 1-2
Pepp: 0-1
USF: 0-2

Combined record against top-2: 1-6
Against bottom-2: 6-0

[DoubleDipper]

Two intra-Mid-6 games on Saturday (Las Vegas/KenPom odds):

USF @ UP (UP by 6.5/7)
PU @ USD (USD by 5/4)
SCU @ GU (GU by 25/22)
LMU @ BYU (BYU by 21/22)
SMC @ UOP (SMC by 7/6)

I wouldn't mind seeing an upset in Stockton....

[Guest]

Two intra-Mid-6 games on Saturday (Las Vegas/KenPom odds):

USF @ UP (UP by 6.5/7)
PU @ USD (USD by 5/4)
SCU @ GU (GU by 25/22)
LMU @ BYU (BYU by 21/22)
SMC @ UOP (SMC by 7/6)

I wouldn't mind seeing an upset in Stockton....

PU beat USD today; that's a road sweep of BYU and USD. Their only loss is to SMC at home. But their other wins are against the bottom 2. Their next test against a Middle 6 will be the Pilots in a week.

GU matched the spread against SCU (+22).

BYU kept LMU winless, but only by +13.

And SMC beat UOP by 7 in a very low scoring game, 54 - 47.

[DoubleDipper]

Here's how it looks at the end of week 3 (with RPI):

GU     5-0   (8 )
SMC  5-0   (78)
PU     4-1   (167)
BYU   4-2   (52)
UP     2-3   (136)
SCU   2-4   (143)
USF    2-4   (173)
USD   2-4   (186)
UOP   1-4   (229)
LMU  0-5   (272)

I watched PU handle USD pretty well today, and also saw UOP take SMC to the wire.....

[DoubleDipper]

Remember that UNLV team the Pilots had beat but lost to in OT?  They just beat UA.  That would be the #3 U of AZ Wildcats.  The ones who beat GU.  

Remember that OSU team the Pilots had beat but lost to in OT?  They just beat UA.  That would be the #7 U of AZ Wildcats....beaten by 2 points in Corvallis.

[Guest]

Wow, I hadn't seen that OSU beat Arizona. Same day as freaking Rutgers took out Wisconsin. After the USF loss, I guess it's nice to have a reminder that teams can lose games they were heavily favoured to win and still recover for brilliant seasons...ya know, like VCU losing to James Madison at home and playing in the Final Four a month later.

NCAA Tournament update: Gonzaga a 2 seed (5th overall) according to Lunardi's S-Curve put out today. WCC down to a one-bid league with BYU on the outside looking in for now, currently the fourth team out. Also making an appearance on the bubble is UNLV (third on the "next four out").

Pilots postseason projections: Need 16 wins for CBI/CIT, 21 wins (90-95 RPI) for NIT bubble, 22 wins (~70 RPI) for NIT. No change.

Other random observation: Pilots currently rank 351st out of 351 NCAA teams in free throw percentage against. No team "allows" (?) their opponents to shoot better than UP at the line, currently 77.1%. And UP is also very good in this regard in their own right, 75.9% is 15th in the country.

[DoubleDipper]

Other random observation: Pilots currently rank 351st out of 351 NCAA teams in free throw percentage against. No team "allows" (?) their opponents to shoot better than UP at the line, currently 77.1%. And UP is also very good in this regard in their own right, 75.9% is 15th in the country.

Ha-ha, yeah, I've often seen that stat about UP allowing a high percentage of made free-throws.  Coming into the USF @ UP game, USF was 348th in free throw percentage, but after burying 28 of 32 against UP, they've moved up to #339 at 60.7%.

On the other hand, UP was 348th, but the Pilots are now 351st on free throw percentage against.....just fouling the wrong guys, I guess, but everyone was hitting for USF last Saturday.