2019 Season

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Post by SoreKnees on Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:55 am

I was very disappointed. The PK was, shall we say, generous, but the Pilots were played off the pitch for much of the game and were lucky to be level.

Most concerning is that the Pilots just didn't seem up for the game. Gonzaga had a large contingent of fans who were boisterous and the team itself was jumping around and shouting the whole game. They were just more ready to play than the Pilots, and it really showed, especially in the last 2/3 of the first half, when they were absolutely dominating.

Bad day at the office? Maybe. Is Gonzaga actually that good? Maybe. Or are the Pilots just not that good? Also, maybe.

After the justified enthusiasm over last year's large improvement in style and results, this year has been a bit disappointing. They have simply not taken the next steps beyond being the mid-table team they were last year. Let's hope that they improve.
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Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:48 pm

My system indicates the Pilots are performing better than what would have been expected if they had last year's strength. So I think it's not correct that they have not taken steps forward. It's a slow process that will take time.
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Post by DoubleDipper on Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:56 pm

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:My system indicates the Pilots are performing better than what would have been expected if they had last year's strength.  So I think it's not correct that they have not taken steps forward.  It's a slow process that will take time.
Despite having 12 seniors on this year's squad, there were preseason indications and expectations that this was going to be a "down year" compared to Frenchie's first season back.

Frenchie wasn't hired until just before the holidays in 2017, which means she was already out of the running when it came to recruiting her own 2018 high school grads, and she had to look to transfers and some 2019 grads before turning her attention to the Class of 2020.

All indications are the team's performance over the last two seasons has been above expectations, and recruiting of student-athlete grads in the Class of 2021 is already well underway.

It's a process...
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Post by Geezaldinho on Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:34 pm

Well, if you decided to stay away for this one, you missed a great effort by the Pilots. The Broncos were lucky to leave the NW with a tie.

Up hit the post in every period, including a PK in the first OT.
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Post by DoubleDipper on Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:32 pm

Geezaldinho wrote:Well, if you decided to stay away for this one, you missed a great effort by the Pilots.
Yeah, that was one for the ages...like the old-time UP/SCU rivalry.

UP outplayed and frustrated the Broncos for most of the game, and the Pilots came so close to winning the game in both overtime periods...

Lots of whining and blaming of the refs by the California team while the Pilots played with urgency and sportsmanship...very impressive.  

The SCU coach has been on the job for 33 years, but Frenchie's game plan and motivation was his equal.
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Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:30 am

I agree, a great game for the players and a great one to watch. This is another game where the Pilots' performance exceeded expectations coming out of last year. If I get a chance, some time Monday or Tuesday I'll post some details on how the Pilots overall accomplisments have exceeded what I think we reasonably should have expected.

I was especially impressed with how disciplined the players were at executing their defensive plan.
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Post by A_Fan on Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:41 am

I watched the stream (which had to be watched from the Santa Clara website as I could not get the link on the Pilots page to work) and was quite impressed by the Pilots play especially after halftime. This should be a real confidence builder for them.

Equally impressive was Pilot analyst Dani Foxhoven's commentary. As much as she would be missed in the Pilot booth, she really belongs on a bigger stage.
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Post by UPWomenSoccerRookie on Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:48 am

Good effort by the Pilots.  It was nice to see them step up their intensity in the 2nd half.  Moving the defense forward in that half made it more difficult for the Broncos to switch sides of the field, which they did freely in the 1st half.

Most heartening for me was that our backline greatly reduced the number of times they kicked the ball away.  They often looked for a pass rather than sending the ball downfield where the opponents usually corral it.  Looking for a nearby teammate improved the passing game and let us retain possession.

Comments on a couple of relatively new faces:  Anja Koehler appears to have won a starting role in the midfield.  I thought she was very effective; she won many headers.  And Gabi Brummett did well in her brief stint on the field.

All the players who saw action showed lots of hustle and intensity.  Let’s hope we see more of the same next Wed.

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Post by DoubleDipper on Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:36 pm

UPWomenSoccerRookie wrote:All the players who saw action showed lots of hustle and intensity.  Let’s hope we see more of the same next Wed.
Ah yes, Wednesday....

While we continue to savor the play of the Pilots last evening, the coaching staff is mindful of BYU and their fans coming to Merlo on Wednesday.  BYU was #5 in the nation before yesterday's shellacking of SMC, 8-0, and the Cougars are 13-0-1 on the season (their tie was at SCU 2-2), while outscoring their opponents 54-6.

Pilot fans, staff and players have no doubt come away from the SCU game with renewed confidence, and the students and Villa Drum Squad will be back from fall break...so Wednesday could be a fun game to watch against the mature Cougars.
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Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:38 pm

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:I agree, a great game for the players and a great one to watch.  This is another game where the Pilots' performance exceeded expectations coming out of last year.  If I get a chance, some time Monday or Tuesday I'll post some details on how the Pilots overall accomplisments have exceeded what I think we reasonably should have expected. ....

I do a pre-season simulation for the entire DI women's season, using simulated ratings I assign to teams, as adjusted for home field advantage and then applied to each of the season's games.

I use Kenneth Massey's ranks over the last 12 years as the basis for the simulated ratings I assign teams since I have found through statistical studies that Massey's ratings and ranks are the best representatives of teams' true strengths.  Ordinarily, I assign ratings based on teams' historic Massey rank trends.  Sometimes, however, I default to last year's Massey rank as the basis for the rating I assign a team. In this year's simulation, because the Pilots have a very new coaching staff and because of the way their historic trend looked, I gave the Pilots a simulated rank that was the same as their Massey rank last year and then converted that to an RPI rating.  I do this for some teams when historic trends don't look like a reliable indicator of what is likely to happen in the coming year.

Since I assigned the Pilots last year's rank, this created an opportunity to see how this year's Pilots have done as compared to what last year's team likely would have done.

Based on the Pilots' simulated rating and the simulated ratings I assigned to all the other teams, as adjusted for home field advantage, the Pilots' record so far would have been 2 wins-4 ties-6 losses.  Instead, it is 4-4-4.

I looked at the Massey ranks I assigned to teams, as compared to their current Massey ranks for this season, to see if possibly the Pilots' opponents have turned out to be not as good as expected.  As it's turned out, 9 out of the 12 opponents have turned out better than expected.  Here are the opponents with their expected and current ranks -- in the format of Team, expected rank, current rank:

Washington, 65.00, 14
New Mexico, 95.30, 89
North Carolina, 4.92, 2
Denver, 79.00, 87
Oregon, 66.00, 56
Seattle, 117.2, 108
San Jose State, 88.41, 127
California, 42.05, 26
Pepperdine, 43.81, 39
Gonzaga, 65.51, 45
St. Mary's, 170.30, 168
Santa Clara, 19.32, 28

Pilots' Massey rank last year: 84.  Their current Massey rank: 54.

So, just as last year showed the team on an upward trajectory, this year is showing the team having continued that upward trajectory.  The numbers say this year's team has done significantly better than would have been expected of last year's team.

Bad PC rimshot
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Post by StudentPilot on Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:04 am

Thanks for all the time an effort you put into determining the relative strength of each team….

You've obviously rated only the Pilot's opponents to date, but I'm curious about Wednesday's opponent, BYU? What is their current Massey rank?  It would seem they are the strongest in the WCC.
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Post by FloridaPilot on Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:31 am

StudentPilot wrote:Thanks for all the time an effort you put into determining the relative strength of each team….

You've obviously rated only the Pilot's opponents to date, but I'm curious about Wednesday's opponent, BYU? What is their current Massey rank?  It would seem they are the strongest in the WCC.

Ditto. Thank you for the effort you put into these analyses and posts. I am also curious about the matchup with the Cougars -- especially after what they did to Saint Mary's!

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Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:01 am

Massey ranks BYU at #3 (significantly higher than the RPI), which may be about right. Obviously, they're big favorites, which makes tomorrow's game especially interesting.
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Post by A_Fan on Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:10 pm

The final score last night was not in the Pilots favor, but I thought they played extremely well considering they were playing the #3 team in the country.
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Post by DoubleDipper on Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:21 pm

A_Fan wrote:The final score last night was not in the Pilots favor, but I thought they played extremely well considering they were playing the #3 team in the country.  
Agreed!  

Except for the damp ball slipping through the UP first-year goal keeper's hands, arms, and wickets, it was a generally mistake free performance and the Pilots created some opportunities against the more athletic and mature Cougars.

Nice to have many of the AVID youngsters who were visiting UP yesterday in the stands last evening...but I wish they'd made a little more noise on behalf of the home team...
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Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:23 pm

Correction of typo - Massey had BYU at #5, not #3. No real difference.
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Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:51 pm

Huge game tomorrow evening @ 7:30 pm @ Merlo v San Francisco. Be there if you can!
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Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:19 am

And another great game, for the team and for the fans to watch, as the Pilots won in the second overtime on a cross into the box from Larkin Russell and a header into the goal from Taryn Ries. The Pilots started slowly but picked it up as the game progressed and in the end simply out-willed the San Fran women. -- It was the Pilots' 6th overtime game of the season.

Now it's on to Pacific next Friday @ Stockton. Another "must win" game.
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Post by DoubleDipper on Sun Oct 27, 2019 12:03 pm

Frenchie said the Pilots came out "flat," which I generally lay on the coaching staff, but face it, the USF goal keeper was excellent throughout the game until the very end.  GOOOAAAALLL!!!!

Nice to see junior Madison Zamora in goal for the Pilots...she too played well.

I don't know about the rest of you, but after two games at Merlo last evening, I felt like a popsicle on the drive home...enjoy the highlights in a warm location.  

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Post by A_Fan on Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:03 pm

Yes, I was freezing at the end of the first half, but the stellar play in the 2nd half warmed me up a bit. Great win for the Pilots.
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Post by Geezaldinho on Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:13 pm

Two games in the cold wind with an hour between them was a lot for my old bones. The two wins made it a bit easier to bear.


I thought several of the freshmen and players who don’t ordinarily get many minutes contributed greatly.

Nice to see the Pilots getting stronger as the game went on while USF seemed to wind down. Thats been a pattern for several of the last few games. The larger roster seems to be paying dividends.

Going into the game UP’s RPI was 53 and USF’s was 52. This weekend’s results has us at 44 now, which is getting close to tournament range. They need to keep winning to have a real chance of getting in.

USF dropped to 64 in the rankings.
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Post by Geezaldinho on Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:49 pm

Comfortable win at pacific. UP had the majority of chances and were regularly in the final third.  Once again the Pilots started slow but got more comfortable as the game wore on.
The finishing could have been better, but Taryn Reis’ opening goal and PK and Lucy Davidson’s first career goal was more than enough, as the pilots held UOP to one shot in the second half and one shot on goal for the game.

Adams is back in the rotation. Jenny Wahlen is still out, but Madison Zamora didn’t have much to do to get a shutout in her second start.

It took Lucy two tries, but she seemed happy with the result.

https://twitter.com/upwomenssoccer/status/1190476144782372864?s=21
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Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:57 pm

A must have win on what looked like a combo of dried grass and packed dirt.

Now it's on to Wednesday's game against LMU. It's all one game at a time, these days.
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Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:07 am

Let's go Pilots! And get one more win, tonight. Yahoo!
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Post by DoubleDipper on Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:00 am

It's "Senior Night" at Merlo...expect a bit of a late start against USD in the last game of the regular season.

2019 Season - Page 3 Senior11

Question...with a win, do the Pilots have a chance of going to the postseason, or did that 1-1 tie with LMU last weekend ruin their chances?
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