2018 Season

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Re: 2018 Season

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:46 pm

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:... [T]he numbers say that from where they were at the end of last year, the Pilots had a spectacular season. †I have some work yet to do to determine how spectacular, and when I'm done I'll report it. †And, if I can figure out how to post it, I'll have a very nice chart that will show just how deep the hole was that the Pilots were in and how well they've done so far at climbing out of it.

I'm going to forego the "very nice chart." But, here's how the Pilots did this year as compared to reasonable expectations:

My "reasonable expectations" are based on what I believe (based on a lot of work) is the best RPI-based method for projecting how a team will do during the coming season. That method projected that the Pilots record this year would be 2-14-4. That's using assigned RPI ratings for all teams (including the Pilots) based on their historic RPI trends (the Pilots' trend was the worst in Division I women's soccer), all teams' actual schedules including the Pilots' schedule, and adjustments for home field advantage.

That projection was so dismal I didn't want to publish it in advance of the season, but it's why I suggested in advance that we all dial down our expectations.

As we now know, the Pilots' actual record was 11-9. To me, that's a spectacular turn around. And, far more important, the players had fun playing soccer again. cheers

I know the players and coaches feel there's a long way to go from here, to get to where they want to be. But for me, I'm celebrating that they're on their way to getting there. Goal Celebration! rimshot You Can Not Stop Us! We are the U of P!
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Re: 2018 Season

Post by wrv on Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:52 am

Thank you for the insight UPSF. Looking forward to the Pilots being "on their way to getting there," even if "there" is not quite defined.

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Re: 2018 Season

Post by SoreKnees on Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:55 am

Likewise, thanks for all of your interesting statistical insights.

Wherever "there" is, getting from here to there is all about recruiting at this point. There used to be a lot of coverage on this site about that status of women's recruiting. Is anyone still following that? Do we have a class taking shape? If so, does it include any particularly promising national-quality players?
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Re: 2018 Season

Post by Geezaldinho on Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:47 pm

Well, I asked around the fall signing date ( soccer could sign in the fall this year) †many programs have chosen not to announce until the †feb. signing date, probably so they could have a better handle on senior year academics. UP is one. More than state schools, UP depends on players having good grades so they can give them academic †scholarship money.

But Iím told there is a ďfullĒ class, which to me means they want to increase the squad size a bit. They have talked about this all fall. Some have ynt experience, but Iím not sure how much or how recent.


And Iím told one or two transfers will be coming in, one or so going elsewhere, and perhaps a Euro player.

No names other than what is on top drawer and such.
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Re: 2018 Season

Post by DoubleDipper on Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:40 pm

Geezaldinho wrote:And Iím told one or two transfers will be coming in, one or so going elsewhere, and perhaps a Euro player.

No names other than what is on top drawer and such.
I was also told two or three potential transfers have made visits to UP in recent weeks, but no announcements will be made until February or March.

One name that is no longer on the roster is freshman Madison Carter. †Madison completed her academic semester satisfactorily, but "cultural differences" have her looking for somewhere else to go to school.
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