2017 Season

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Re: 2017 Season

Post by DoubleDipper on Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:13 pm

ejjqb wrote:A bigger disappointment was the poor showing by the students in the stands.
All about perspective, I guess.

I was impressed, not by the numbers, but by the quality of the student section on Saturday night.  Half-naked in very cold rain and strong winds, they kept the beat, the chants, the yelling, and the singing going the entire game without letup.

Hats off (metaphorically...it was too cold and wet to take them off during the game) to Villa for their support Saturday and throughout the season.  There are a lot more fun and exciting things for students to do on a blustery Saturday night besides watching soccer....even though it was against our arch-rival.

File photo:
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by eProf on Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:33 pm

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:
Pilots draw against Saint Mary's: . . .
- Pacific beats San Francisco. Pacific then has to draw or lose their last match with Gonzaga. San Francisco has to lose their last match as well.
I believe that in this scenario, it would be OK for San Francisco to draw their last match. We would end up with 14 points (4-1-2), and USF would end up with 13 points (4-2-1).
SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:
Pilots lose to Saint Mary's: Pilots 13, Pacific 13 (Pilots win the tiebreaker), and USF 12
- Pacific beats San Francisco and has to lose their last match to Gonzaga. USF has to lose both final matches.
I believe that there is one other (highly unlikely) scenario in which we would get the automatic bid, based on goal differential: We lose to St. Mary's; Pacific beats USF, but loses its last match; USF draws its last match. This would put all three teams tied at 13 points, and with no head-to-head tiebreaker (each team with a 1-1 record within the group of three). It would then revert to goal differential. If my math is right, UP and USF are currently +5, and Pacific is +2.
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by SouthCarolinaPilot on Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:40 am

You are right on both accounts. I knew there would be some mistakes. I felt like this when trying to type it out:

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Re: 2017 Season

Post by eProf on Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:55 am

Here is the simplest characterization I can come up with for how UP can earn the automatic bid.
  • If USF beats Pacific, UP needs to beat SMC, and USF has to lose to LMU.
  • If USF ties Pacific, UP needs a better result against SMC than USF gets against LMU (for example, UP wins, USF draws). The Pacific-Gonzaga result is irrelevant in this case; any of Pacific chances would require a loss by UP.
  • If Pacific beats USF, then UP needs a result that is at least as good as the USF result against LMU, and also that is at least as good as the Pacific result against Gonzaga.
    • The one other possibility is the UP-lose, Pacific-lose, USF-draw, where all three teams end up at 13 points, and it goes to goal differential.

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Re: 2017 Season

Post by DoubleDipper on Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:15 am

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Re: 2017 Season

Post by SouthCarolinaPilot on Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:41 pm

USF is up 2-0 on Pacific in the 72nd minute. Not good for our chances.

Edit: 3-0 USF FINAL from Negoesco. Looks like we have to win and pray for a miracle against LMU. USF is several RPI points behind both UP and Pacific, which cannot help either of us. That being said, I would expect Pacific's RPI to fall farther than ours as a result.
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by DoubleDipper on Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:46 pm

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:Edit: 3-0 USF FINAL from Negoesco. Looks like we have to win and pray for a miracle against LMU. USF is several RPI points behind both UP and Pacific, which cannot help either of us. That being said, I would expect Pacific's RPI to fall farther than ours as a result.
Tomorrow's matchups:

1st place USF (RPI 45) at home vs. 7th place LMU (166).
2nd place UP (31) at 4th place (t) SMC (91)
3rd place UOP (34) at home vs. 8th (last) place GU (128)  

Obviously if USF wins they win the automatic bid, but a win by UOP over GU does not necessarily move them ahead of UP even if UP were to play to a draw with SMC.  SMC already has 5 draws this season, by far the most of any other WCC team.

A good showing by UP tomorrow "should" get them an at-large bid, but you just never know!
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:22 pm

The best thing the Pilots have going for them is their win over now #8 Western Michigan.
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by DoubleDipper on Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:04 pm

Probably shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, but I'm hearing there's a very good chance the Pilots will gain an at-large bid with a win over SMC tomorrow.

The expected opponent....UW.

UW's RPI is 40 after their 4-3 defeat in Corvallis last night, and that means a win by the Pilots in Moraga could mean another game at Merlo this season!

Remember, that's just an educated guess, but it would be great to see the Villains put back to work again this season! pirat
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by Geezaldinho on Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:11 am

Well, UW at 40 is now below the tournament line on RPI update. San Diego is 39 and they won't make it when the site manager realizes that USF is the likely conference champ and bumps all the at large bids down a peg.

At this point in the season a loss would drop a team about 2 pegs, which might even mean we have a chance even with a loss.
Things like Charlotte beating Old Dominion, and DCU knocking off USD (less likely) would certainly help.

Winning is better.
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by Geezaldinho on Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:32 pm

Wow. Talk about not coming ready to play.

Down 0-2 fifteen minutes in.
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by CanadianPilot on Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:24 pm

Just fell short, no urgency until it was too late. RPI to #44 well outside the bubble.

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Re: 2017 Season

Post by Geezaldinho on Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:11 pm

I think its safe to put the soccer watching warm stuff and cowbell away for the winter.
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by Stonehouse on Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:33 pm

Well, they are projecting confidence! Not sure it will sway the committee though.

http://portlandpilots.com/news/2017/11/12/mens-soccer-strong-strength-of-schedule-high-profile-wins-have-pilots-optimistic-for-ncaa-bid.aspx

The Portland Pilots men's soccer team concluded the regular season with one of the strongest non-conference strengths of schedule, wins over 4-5 teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament, and a second-place finish in the West Coast Conference. The Pilots, currently sitting around No. 41 in the latest RPI projections, are hoping those data points and favorable Sunday results will be enough to justify an at-large bid to the 2017 NCAA Men's Soccer Championships.

Head coach Nick Carlin-Voigt and the Pilots now wait to see if the NCAA Men's Soccer Selection Committee rewards Portland with an NCAA at-large big during Monday's Selection Show at 10 a.m.

Some key highlights that are in favor of Portland earning a bid (real-time RPI numbers based off of RPIupdate.com as of Sunday morning):

- Top 10 non-conference strength of schedule in the nation
- Top 25 overall strength of schedule nationally (third highest among 'bubble' teams of RPI's 24-41)
- Portland played 7-8 games against teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament
- Win over No. 7 Western Michigan (4-1)
- Win over No. 34 Pacific (3-1)
- Defeated No. 56 Seattle (2-1) who is playing for the WAC title today
- Defeated Fairfield (6-0) who is playing for the MAAC title today
- Beat Big West Champion Cal State Fullerton (5-0)
- Road win against Pac-12 rival Oregon State (1-0)
- Led No. 11 Virginia on the road most of the match before falling 2-1 in overtime
- Second place West Coast Conference finish
- Posted a 4-2-1 record in the last seven games of the season

In addition to the metrics, Portland is one of the top offensive teams in the nation and was a NCAA Tournament team last year.

Below are Sunday Conference Championship Games Featuring 2017 Portland Opponents in bold. These matches, as well other title matches that could take away at-large bids, will play a big part in shaping the final NCAA Tournament selections. Rankings are based on up-to-date RPI projections.

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship
No. 11 Virginia (12-3-4) vs. No. 1 Wake Forest (17-1-1) 9 AM (PT)

Mid-American Conference Championship
No. 7 Western Michigan (16-2-1) vs. No. 12 Akron (15-3-1) 10 AM (PT)

Western Athletic Conference Championship
No. 56 Seattle (13-3-4) vs. No. 69 San Jose State (9-10-1) 1 PM (PT)

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Championship
No. 71 Fairfield (11-4-3) vs. No. 48 Rider (12-4-2) 2 PM (PT)
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by Geezaldinho on Sun Nov 12, 2017 4:53 pm

Looks more like a sales pitch to the committee than a display of confidence.

I sure hope it works, though.


Even if it does work, the team still has to figure out how to win when they aren't sleeping in their own beds. That only happened once this year.

They ain't getting any home matches.
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Re: 2017 Season

Post by CanadianPilot on Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm

Last season the committee selected Villanova who was 3 spots outside of the RPI at 42. Sound familiar. They also had lost their last game. The Villanova SOS was 34, to our 33 this year.

Not saying there is a chance but there is a chance

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Re: 2017 Season

Post by DoubleDipper on Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:41 am

Pacific to host Cal State Fullerton.

Cal to host USF.

With UP's loss to SMC, Seattle U will play at UW.

Unless there's a NIT for soccer, the Pilots season is over....
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