Prognostication time!

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How many WCC games will the Pilots win this year?

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67% 67% 
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Total Votes : 18

Prognostication time!

Post by PilotNut on Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:08 am

WCC play starts on Saturday, January 12th. Basketball

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Re: Prognostication time!

Post by Stonehouse on Mon Jan 07, 2008 11:08 am

My vote went for 5-6. I am hoping for more, but this recent road trip has made me question things a bit. As much as I really like our players and our potential, we are what we are... an extremely young team. And young teams always have adversity and struggles.

Still, having said that... I could see us go 2-0 this weekend down at LMU and Pep, and than I would say we would be more in the 7-8 range.

Honestly, I think the ceiling for our WCC season woud be 2-0 vs. LMU, Pep, and USF, 1-1 vs. SCU and USD and 0-2 vs. GU and SMC. That would put us at 8-6 and probably in 3rd or 4th place.

On the flip side, I think the bottom of it would be 1-1 vs. LMU, Pep, USF, 1-1 against either SCU or USD, and 0-2 against the rest. That would be 4-10 and likely 7th place.

So I'm thinking that 6 is probably just about right for the time being, but if we sweep this road trip than things could definitely be looking up.

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Re: Prognostication time!

Post by PilotNut on Mon Jan 07, 2008 11:45 am

Agreed on the 5-6 wins. Last weekend's road trip was disappointing, but inconsistent play is a characteristic of a young team. I think we have the ability to compete with the middle of the pack, its just a matter if we will...

If we can get a few more cylinders firing at the same time (i.e. Raivio, Smeulders, Ito and Sikma), we will do very well in WCC play. We need everyone to start showing up consistently. Ito needs to get his shot back, and hopefully Sherrard can step in and take over when needed. We really need his leadership when we are struggling.

Going 2-0 this weekend would be a great start...

I see us going 3-1 against LMU & Pepp, 0-4 against GU & SMC, 3-3 against USD, SCU & USF, for a record of 6-8.

If we can squeak out 4-2 vs USD, SCU & USF... and sweep LMU & Pepp... 8-6 would be a great accomplishment for this team.

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Re: Prognostication time!

Post by MesaPilot1 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 12:10 pm

I agree on the 5-6 wins, and believe anymore than that would be great. I think maybe by the end of the year these freshman might be worn down some, remember they are used to H.S. competion , schedules are usually shorter, and Christmas tourneys usually involve 100-200 mile trips ( not 3,000 mile trips to two December games.
That being said I don't think this far along in the season they are totally inexperienced and they need to start stepping up to the plate. Not "will get um next year" attitude. They have the talent to play a competive game with Pac-10 schools ie Oregon , Oregon State, Washington so hopefully they can 'gel" and pull a couple of upset's in the WCC.
I like the players Coach Reveno has recruited both character, academicly(sp), and heart. I think the future looks bright despite this disapointing weekend. pale

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Re: Prognostication time!

Post by pilotpurple on Mon Jan 07, 2008 1:15 pm

i'd be very happy if we can pull off 6 wins. I think 5 is realistic and 4 would be a bit disappointing. If we get more than 6, that would be a big step for this program. LMU, Pepperdine and USF all are very beatable both at home and on the road, but there is no way a young team pulls all of those off. I give us 4-2 against those teams, sneak home wins from USD/SCU and fall twice to both SMC and the Zags.

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Re: Prognostication time!

Post by Stonehouse on Tue Jan 08, 2008 9:30 am

I'm loving the confidence of the person who voted for us to get 9-10 wins!!! Smile

You know, the more I think about it... the realistic side of me says that 5-6 is the right guess at this point, but honestly... Santa Clara just lost at home to San Jose State, and after a good 3-1 start they've gone 3-6 since then. Pepperdine has been super streaky... started 0-4, then won 4 in a row, and now has 1-6 over their last seven (granted, all of them were on the road). San Diego had a great win at Kentucky and has played a tough schedule, but they are still only 6-9 and lack the size to really scare me. And USF and LMU... I mean, they are really, really struggling right now.

Of course, the rejoinder would be that UP is 4-10 (5-10 if we count Cascade!) and is 1-4 since the win at Montana, but hey... I'm talking about best-case scenerios right now and I really think that something in the range of 7 or 8 wins could be totally doable if Ito can find his shot again (and he's definitely been picking that up over the past few games) and if Sikma can come back from wherever he went the past few games. Smeulders has really stepped up the past few games which is also a good sign, and it looks like Rev is gaining more and more confidence in Stohl, who I think is the best guy on the team for providing some instant offensive punch.

So... what the heck, I'm going to throw the rational side of me out the window and change my vote to 7 or 8! Smile

But, of course, it all really boils down to this weekend. These next two games (at LMU and at PEP) are the two most winnable WCC road games for us, so we really, really need to capitalize on them if we want to be maybe the surprise team of the WCC.

Gooooo Pilots!

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Re: Prognostication time!

Post by PilotNut on Wed Jan 09, 2008 5:35 pm

Feel free to add commentary as to how you predict the conference will end up... who wins the battle for 3rd Place? How many losses for GU & SMC?

I think USD claims 3rd place, and honestly 4th thru 7th place is up for grabs between UP, USF, Pepp and SCU. If I had to guess (and it is really not much more than a guess at this point!), I would put SCU 4th, UP 5th, Pepp 6th and USF in 7th place. LMU is my pick for 8th place.

4th place and the first round bye in the WCC tourney would be HUGE...

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