UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

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UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by up7587 on Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:39 am

Big game coming up. USD is 5-10 in conference. They are a tough team to figure out. They beat LMU at home, won at SCU (then lost at home), beat us by 2 points three weeks ago  Evil or Very Mad , then beat SMC at home  Shocked, lost four in a row (3 at home), then dominated a hot UOP team in Stockton that had knocked of BYU the previous game. They finish the season with UP, GU and BYU, so they are probably looking at UP as their last chance to win a game.

They go about 9 deep for players, led by 3 guards and their Sr. center Dennis Kramer. Johnny Dee (how is this guy not yet a Sr.?) is their leading scorer, at 17 ppg. The Pilots' shooting stats are a little better than the Toreros' across the board.

This is a winnable game. UP is #103 in the KenPom ratings, 4th best in the WCC. USD is #141, 8th best in the conference, and they have lost to both LMU and SCU, the WCC bottom two. Beating UP would be their only sweep of the season (assuming they can't upset the top two teams).

No word on whether leading scorer Kevin Bailey will be available, but the guys just got two without him. And who knows, maybe Tanner Riley showed enough that he will be in the mix again.

Beat the Toreros!

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by DoubleDipper on Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:37 am

up7587 wrote:This is a winnable game. UP is #103 in the KenPom ratings, 4th best in the WCC. USD is #141, 8th best in the conference, and they have lost to both LMU and SCU, the WCC bottom two.
And yet, KenPom favors USD to win, 68-66.....which is really based on the home court advantage.  

From my experiences watching UP play USD in the Slim Gym.....it's generally not a bad place to play for the visiting teams and it's a great facility.

(Good scouting report, 7587, you're really into this for so early in the week.)  Shocked

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by dholcombe on Mon Feb 17, 2014 1:33 pm

If we win this game we can finish no lower than 7th as if we lost all remaining games we would have 10 losses. If Santa Clara were to win out they would also have 10 losses and I believe we own the tie breaker.

With a win on Thursday whether we get 6th or better would be entirely in our control in the final game @ Pacific even if we were to lose the next 2 games. I'm feeling pretty good about not playing in the first day of the tournament right now as San Diego is sitting on 10 losses and still has a game remaining against Gonzaga.

Overtaking St. Mary's even appears to be a decent possibility at this point....but that's getting ahead of things. Lets secure 6th place first.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by DoubleDipper on Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:47 pm

Did anyone on PN catch Coach Rev on radio Monday evening?

I understood he was going to give an injury update on Alec and KB.....and maybe even more.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by PilotNut on Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:40 am

Has anyone else been experiencing technical difficulties with the live and on-demand audio/video recently?  I can't access the page in IE (it just loads a blank white page), and Chrome is hit and miss...  I am trying to listen to tonight's show now, and it just sits there, "Loading"... that has happened quite a bit for me lately...   Mad

I have had some success by accessing the "event" from the "Upcoming Events" link on the home page, but not the Pilots Video page.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by DoubleDipper on Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:15 am

PilotNut wrote:Has anyone else been experiencing technical difficulties with the live and on-demand audio/video recently?  
I haven't had a problem when there is actually something to listen to.

Last night's audio has not yet been posted....not sure why it doesn't happen sooner....and sometimes the audio is not posted at all, like the February 3rd show.

The beginning of the taped audio seems to always be garbled because it's from whatever else is on Sports 910 prior to the Pilots Coaches Show.....but once Bill Johnson is heard and the show begins, it all sounds fine....to me.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by Guest on Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:34 am

Last time the Pilots won three WCC games in a row was back in 2009-10. Feb 11 over USD, Feb 13 over Saint Mary's, Feb 18 over Pepperdine...first two at home, Pepperdine game away.

Make it happen!

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by NoPoNeighbor on Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:29 am

The audio archive of Monday's coach's show is still not posted. Does anyone have any info on the injuries?

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by NoPoNeighbor on Wed Feb 19, 2014 4:37 pm

From the UP press release re: this week's road trip:
Bailey, who is questionable for Thursday's game, leads the Pilots and ranks sixth in the WCC in scoring (16.5). The injury bug spread as freshman PG Alec Wintering also injured his calf at the end of the Pepperdine game and is also questionable for Thursday.
This is not good! Reminds me of when Raivio was injured going down the home stretch of the conference schedule a few years back. We're gonna need Tanner Riley, David Carr, and Korey Thieleke to step up big time!

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by up7587 on Wed Feb 19, 2014 5:18 pm

From a feature Jim Beseda wrote for the PortlandPilots web site about the final four regular season games:
San Diego Toreros (14-14, 5-10): The last time the Pilots won a game at Jenny Craig Pavilion was on Feb. 24, 2011, when they downed the Toreros 65-61 behind Jared Stohl's game-high 18 points and four steals. … San Diego is coming off a 70-55 victory Saturday at Pacific that snapped a four-game losing streak. … The Pilots dropped a 65-63 decision to San Diego at the Chiles Center on Jan. 25 when a call late in the game didn't go their way. Trailing by nine in the second half, the Pilots thought they had tied the game when Alec Wintering scored and was fouled with 10 seconds remaining, but the foul was ruled to have occurred before the shot, nullifying the basket. Wintering still had a chance to tie the score at the foul line, but missed the front end of a one-and-one situation and the Toreros held on to win in Portland for the second time in three seasons.

LINK

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by DoubleDipper on Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:20 pm

By far the closest odds on WCC games from Las Vegas this year:

USD by 1 over UP
UOP @ SCU is rated even
LMU by 2 over PU
BYU by 1.5 over GU
SMC @ USF is rated even

The Pilots would probably welcomce some help from SCU and LMU.....

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by NoPoNeighbor on Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:35 pm

DoubleDipper wrote:The Pilots would probably welcomce some help from SCU and LMU.....
And maybe the Zags can return the favor by taking BYU to triple OT!

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by Guest on Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:56 am

NoPoNeighbor wrote:The audio archive of Monday's coach's show is still not posted. Does anyone have any info on the injuries?

K. Bailey practiced Monday at about 75%. Wintering has the exact same injury apparently and didn't practice Monday. Both sounded day-to-day...coaches probably know if both, one, or neither will play at this point but I doubt we'll know until game time tonight.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by Guest on Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:18 am

DoubleDipper wrote:By far the closest odds on WCC games from Las Vegas this year:

USD by 1 over UP
UOP @ SCU is rated even
LMU by 2 over PU
BYU by 1.5 over GU
SMC @ USF is rated even

The Pilots would probably welcomce some help from SCU and LMU.....

Kenpom odds -
USD 68-66 over Pilots (57%)
LMU 77-75 over PEP (56%)
SCU 74-73 over PAC (54%)
USF 70-69 over SMC (53%)
BYU 77-76 over GU (53%)

In other words, we're set for a wild night of WCC basketball. Agree that a win by LMU would be nice! Surely the Lions are due to break this losing streak at home?

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by up7587 on Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:31 pm

West Coast Convo has their preview up: San Diego vs. Portland.  They pick the Pilots.

And Wally Jeter at Pilots Courtside takes UP plus the points (2.5).  Pilots Courtside: Sportsbook Report.  The big question mark is Alec's availability.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by up7587 on Thu Feb 20, 2014 6:05 pm

Wintering starting!

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by up7587 on Thu Feb 20, 2014 6:50 pm

At half, USD has 13 bench points. Pilots bench players have 2 missed shots. Allowing 54% shooting, on too many open layups off pick and rolls.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by DoubleDipper on Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:15 am

DeanMurdoch wrote:Kenpom odds -
USD 68-66 over Pilots (57%)
LMU 77-75 over PEP (56%)
SCU 74-73 over PAC (54%)
USF 70-69 over SMC (53%)
BYU 77-76 over GU (53%)
USD by 2
PU by 3
SCU by 20!
USF by 11
BYU by 8

The SCU win helps the Pilots, but it is way too tight for that elusive 6th place.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by up7587 on Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:22 am

Can't depend on others to help you out. Another one that got away.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by NoPoNeighbor on Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:50 am

All the stats were pretty much even except for free throws. We committed too many fouls... or didn't get to the line enough... or both.

Interesting that we don't seem significantly worse with Bailey out of the lineup.

Two losses to USD by a total of 4 points.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by Guest on Fri Feb 21, 2014 9:33 am

NoPoNeighbor wrote:Interesting that we don't seem significantly worse with Bailey out of the lineup.

I don't know, I was thinking how nice it would be to have Bailey in there at a couple points during that game. Specifically, during USD's big run in the first half after the Pilots were up 10 when UP went turnover, air ball, turnover, then had three shots in a row blocked. He's got the ability to create chances by himself and at times I think that was a key part of what was missing last night.

USD now with the tiebreaker over the Pilots and just one win back. Toreros with two games left, both at home - fortunately for the Pilots those games are against Gonzaga and BYU. Pacific two wins back and needs to win out to pass the Pilots (they play at USF and at home against GU and UP). SCU also two wins back and will need to win out (at home vs. SMC, away at LMU and Pepperdine).

So the way I see it, Pilots are looking good for that 6 seed regardless of the outcome of the final three games...but it sure would be nice to put some pressure on Pepperdine for 5th and go into the WCC tourney with a bit of momentum.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by Pilot2002 on Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:26 am

The stat of the night to me is 2 bench points in 55 minutes of playing time. And I believe that came in the final minute of the game.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by up7587 on Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:42 am

Pilot2002 wrote:The stat of the night to me is 2 bench points in 55 minutes of playing time.  And I believe that came in the final minute of the game.

Yup, David Carr's layup, when basically they let him score.

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by dholcombe on Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:54 am

Too bad :/ The win would have clinched 6th. Now we have to win 2 of 3 or win a game and hope San Diego drops one (seems likely).

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Re: UP @ San Diego - Thursday at 6:00 pm (ROOT)

Post by up7587 on Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:06 am

BYU will be fired up Saturday. Beating GU kept their at-large hopes alive, plus, revenge factor. SMC and Pacific are tough to figure out this year.

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