2013 Fall Season

Keep in mind that topdrawersoccer picks aren't really a poll, but one guy's choices, and it appears he is using incorrect results from last year.

SCU was actually fourth in the conference last year behind Pepperdine on a tiebreaker, not third. They both finished with 15 points and Pepperdine beat SCU 2-1.  SCU  also had six first place votes last preseason.

Nice article in the Oregonian this morning:

Article

This is as good a thread as any:

AllWhiteKit's Chris Henderson has done a 1-time ranking of the top teams in relation to chances in the NCAA Tournament:

Tier A – Contenders For The Crown

1. Virginia
2. Florida State
3. North Carolina
4. UCLA
5. Virginia Tech
6. Portland
7. Michigan

Tier B – Lingering Doubts

8. Notre Dame
9. Penn State
10. West Virginia
11. Santa Clara
12. Marquette
13. Nebraska

Tier C – Lovably, But Fatally Flawed

14. Stanford
15. Cal
16. Wake Forest
17. Georgetown
18. Denver
19. Texas A&M
20. South Carolina
21. Florida

Tier D – Best of What’s Left

22. UCF
23. Kentucky
24. Texas Tech
25. Louisville

Check it out here: http://www.allwhitekit.com/?p=12343

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:AllWhiteKit's Chris Henderson has done a 1-time ranking of the top teams in relation to chances in the NCAA Tournament:

Tier A – Contenders For The Crown

1. Virginia
2. Florida State
3. North Carolina
4. UCLA
5. Virginia Tech
6. Portland
7. Michigan

I like the way Chris thinks.  There is no doubt the Pilots team is deeper and younger than we've seen in years.....and they're improving each week.....but with Cruz' status uncertain, they cannot afford more injuries to key players if they are to be a contender.

It's Fall Break at UP....no classes, and practice is over.....time for an actual "field trip."  

I saw the posting on AWK. They had seeding based on RPI and another without where he had ND on top. How could that be with their 4 losses?

First to go home?

gnarly wrote:I saw the posting on AWK.   They had seeding based on RPI and another without where he had ND on top.   How could that be with their 4 losses?

His seeding with Notre Dame at the top is based on the positive results teams have had against teams currently ranked in the top 50.  He indicates that another factor, that can't be applied now, will be how teams finish in their conferences and what their conferences' average ARPI ranks are at the end of the season.  These probably are the two most influential factors in seeding (head to head results and results against common opponents also are factors).

The other thing he says is that the seedings with Notre Dame at the top do not take into account the seed candidate groupings that appear to be part of the NCAA's seeding process.  History indicates that those groupings are as follows:

#1 Seed Candidates:  Teams ranked #1 through #6 in the ARPI

#2 Seed Candidates:  #7 through #13 plus the #1 Seed Candidates that don't get #1 seeds

#3 Seed Candidates:  #14 through #18, etc.

#4 Seed Candidates:  #19 through #25, etc.

He doesn't use those groupings now because it's way premature to know who will be in each group.

So, simply put, at this point Notre Dame has the best positive results against top 50 teams.  Who they lost to is not a factor.  And, based on history, nor would it be a factor in the Committee's seedings -- although Notre Dame will not get a #1 seed if, at the end of the season, it is not a top 6 team, which it probably won't be.

FYI, here is the formula AWK is using to evaluate results against top 50 teams:



You'll note that this formula is very heavily weighted towards good results against top teams. The extremity of the weighting may seem odd, but in relation to at large selections this formula produces selections that very nearly match the Committee's.

The main benefit from his "seedings," at this stage of the season, is to see how things evolve over the course of the season and to become familiar with what appear to be the key factors in the NCAA's decision-making process.

If you really want a lot of detailed information about this, go to the RPI for Division I Women's Soccer webpages and particularly these two:

https://sites.google.com/site/rpifordivisioniwomenssoccer/ncaa-tournament-predicting-the-bracket-doing-it-by-computer

https://sites.google.com/site/rpifordivisioniwomenssoccer/ncaa-tournament-predicting-the-bracket-seeding-by-computer

These two pages (and the one that precedes them) are truly brilliant.  

(The second of the above smilies is my favorite!)