The Season Begins & Pomeroy

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The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by DoubleDipper on Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:00 pm

There are a number of pundits in the blogosphere who give their opinions and rankings of D-1 basketball teams, Jeff Sagarin, Basketball State, College Hoops Update, and Las Vegas Odds, come to mind, but my go-to guy is still Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com). He’s pretty darned accurate (most of the time), and he uses far more indicators than most to judge a team’s, and individual’s, performance.

Pomeroy picks the winners and losers of every D-1 games, including the predicted score and the probability of his selections being correct. I know Rev mentions Pomeroy quite often….so it must be worth looking at. Razz

I plan to keep an eye the rise and fall of various teams throughout the year, and update them here from time-to-time as we see how the season plays out. I hope it generates some interest in our various opponents and results in lots of discussion.

Here are Pomeroy’s picks before the season begins (I’ve also added his rankings for each team at the conclusion of last season to give a sense of that team’s change from last April). Remember, there are a now a total of 347 D-1 men’s teams.

WCC

14 – Gonzaga (21)
47 – St. Mary’s (42)
50 – BYU (56)
140 – San Diego (207)
154 – Santa Clara (264)
155 – LMU (142)
182 – Portland (278)
(192 – Pacific) (286) (will join the WCC next season)
197 – USF ((139)
299 – Pepperdine (289)

UP’s D-1 Opponents:

56 – Ohio U (62)
328 – Idaho State (304)
311 – Montana State (298)
279 – Portland State (212)
21 – New Mexico (19)
95 – WSU (88)
18 – UNLV (38)
1 – Kentucky (1)
260 – Cal State Bakersfield (249)
171 – North Florida (191)
92 – Colorado State (96)
(79 – Virginia Tech) (90) (UP plays Va Tech or Bradley in second round in Las Vegas in Dec)
(234 – Bradley) (276)
330 – Texas Pan American (311)


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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by ShipstadPilot11 on Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:25 pm

Thanks DD! I'll definitely look forward to updates! Our schedule seems to have more balance than last year. I like our odds of starting the season at least 3-1.

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by NoPoNeighbor on Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:28 pm

ShipstadPilot11 wrote:I like our odds of starting the season at least 3-1.
Yes, but then we'd be lucky to not lose the next four. That will be a tough stretch!

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by Guest on Thu Nov 08, 2012 8:10 am

Well, if Pomeroy's ranking holds up the Pilots are looking at about a 13-19 record this year.

Here's hoping they can blow up the rankings...ahh, the optimism that comes when the team's at 0-0.

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by ShipstadPilot11 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:31 am

DeanMurdoch wrote:Here's hoping they can blow up the rankings...ahh, the optimism that comes when the team's at 0-0.
UNDEFEATED!

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by DoubleDipper on Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:51 am

DeanMurdoch wrote:Well, if Pomeroy's ranking holds up the Pilots are looking at about a 13-19 record this year.

Here's hoping they can blow up the rankings...ahh, the optimism that comes when the team's at 0-0.
As it’s still preseason, it’s really all just speculation, but besides just rankings, home and away plays a large part in the W/L predictions.

As mentioned, UP does NOT have a history of winning on the road...and that is reflected in Pomeroy’s predictions this year. The only away game UP is predicted to win all season is at Pepperdine.

Taking into account the two non D-1 games, Lewis & Clark and Portland Bible, and not taking into account the second game in Las Vegas in December (he’s left that off because of the unknown second game opponent), UP’s projected record is 14-16 with a 6-10 record in WCC play.

Even if UP were to lose to Colorado State in the first game in Las Vegas, the likely opponent on the second night will be Bradley...a game that could be winnable for the Pilots....creating a PRESEASON projected record of 15-16. After last year, and with only one senior, that would be a WOW season and the precursor of a fine 2013-14 season.

Oh lord, I'm not talking about NEXT year already am I? Razz


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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by Guest on Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:01 am

Statler: These are great rankings, I don't care what you say!
Waldorf: Yeah? I think they're dumb.
Statler: Maybe you're right!

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by DoubleDipper on Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:20 am

Ha ha, you gotta love people who know Statler and Waldorf!!

Of course that's Waldorf on the left giving his thumbs-up to the preseason predictions, you know...

I have a feeling you'll see various Statler and Waldorf images as the season progresses, or doesn’t........

Statler: Personally, I don't care for puppets much. I don't find them believable.
Waldorf: I don't believe you.

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by PilotNut on Thu Nov 08, 2012 2:32 pm

DeanMurdoch wrote:ahh, the optimism that comes when the team's at 0-0.

We still control our destiny at this point... as long as we win out...

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by blacksheep on Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:18 pm

PilotNut wrote:
DeanMurdoch wrote:ahh, the optimism that comes when the team's at 0-0.

We still control our destiny at this point... as long as we win out...

We just need to take it one game at a time...

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by Rochin54 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 7:54 am

blacksheep wrote:
PilotNut wrote:
DeanMurdoch wrote:ahh, the optimism that comes when the team's at 0-0.

We still control our destiny at this point... as long as we win out...

We just need to take it one game at a time...

We don't run our program on outside influences

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by Geezaldinho on Fri Nov 09, 2012 9:01 am

Rochin54 wrote:
blacksheep wrote:
PilotNut wrote:
DeanMurdoch wrote:ahh, the optimism that comes when the team's at 0-0.

We still control our destiny at this point... as long as we win out...

We just need to take it one game at a time...

We don't run our program on outside influences

Might as well get them all out of the way...


1. We want to attack them inside.

2. Don't pass up a good shot.

3. Make the defense work.

4. Don't just stand and pass the ball around.

5. Run the plays.

6. Show some creativity on offense.

7. Everyone should feel part of the offense.

8. Know who it is we want to take the shots.

9. Every possession counts.

10.Let's relax and just have fun out there.'"

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by DaTruRochin on Fri Nov 09, 2012 9:32 am

And for good measure:


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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by DoubleDipper on Fri Nov 09, 2012 10:24 am

Excellent video!! I love that scene....especially when coach says, “It’s Big!”

We can only hope Rev uses a similar tactic as the men head to Ohio (13,000); New Mexico (15,000); WSU (12,000); Rupp Arena (23,000); and the Marriott Center at BYU (23,000).

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by DoubleDipper on Fri Nov 09, 2012 12:36 pm

WOW, good job, Will!

SB Nation Mid-Major Madness strikes again:

Portland Pilots to Play Difficult Teams Again, Ask for Money Back

Mid-Major Madness


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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by ShipstadPilot11 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 12:40 pm

Rev is so visually expressive! I love it!



I don't fully agree with this statement from Mid-Major Madness:
The key to this whole exercise is determining how UP's four core returning guys, Thomas van der Mars, Ryan Nicholas, Kevin Bailey and Derrick Rodgers, have improved over the off-season, and how they improve as the season goes along.
I don't think Rodgers is going to be a key cog for us and I think this really overlooks Riley, Barker and Carr.


Last edited by ShipstadPilot11 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 2:41 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Clarity)

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by DoubleDipper on Fri Nov 09, 2012 3:21 pm

SP11, I enjoyed reading your response(s) on the Mid-Majority website....a good compilation of what Pilots fans know, not what the writer thinks he knows. Razz

Mid-Major Madness also sat down and looked at 3,000 student/athletes in an attempt to figure out who the best 50 basketball players in the country are.

The list below only includes Mid-Major players the Pilots will face this year, one of whom they face tomorrow in Athens.

50. Anthony Ireland, Loyola Marymount, Jr.
43. Kevin Foster, Santa Clara, Sr.
16. Brandon Davies, BYU, Sr.
11. Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga, So.
9. D.J. Cooper, Ohio, Sr.
8. Matthew Dellavedova, St. Mary's, Sr.
7. Elias Harris, Gonzaga, Sr.

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by NoPoNeighbor on Fri Nov 09, 2012 3:47 pm

A very good season preview article from Nick Daschel at the Oregonian (despite a couple of glaring errors, e.g. Cason is a 3-pt threat, Rodgers is a junior): http://www.oregonlive.com/pilots/index.ssf/2012/11/mens_basketball_pilots_ready_t.html

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by onetouchfutbol on Sat Nov 10, 2012 8:49 am

That is a good preview. Is the starting 5 (starting Carr and Riley) in that article accurate? I kind of thought that there would be some other guys out there. If Bailey can continue to lead the team in steals, cut down his turnovers, and up his scoring just a little bit that will be worth watching. I think we can be in the 11-16 wins range this year. In a best case scenario, we could do better. If Ryan Nicholas could average a double double for the season and our guard play improved, then anything would be possible. Everyone is still a little bit young, so, it´s just a matter of who is going to step forward so it´s not just the blind leading the blind....

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by DoubleDipper on Sat Nov 10, 2012 10:55 am

onetouchfutbol wrote:That is a good preview. Is the starting 5 (starting Carr and Riley) in that article accurate? I kind of thought that there would be some other guys out there.
Well, we'll know for sure in a few minutes, but yes, Carr at PG and Riley at SG has been the lineup during practices and in the two exhibition games.

In my estimation, UP is thin at PG because of Rodgers inability to pose a scoring threat from outside, but he is much tougher and a better defender than Carr....at this point. Carr's head wound looked sufficiently healed that he shouldn't have to wear his protective goggles today....his shooting accuracy was hindered mightily with them on.

Not having Dorian around will hurt some, but depending on the lineup that Rev runs, J. Bailey can spell Nicholas and Pressley can really add some athleticism that has (except for K. Bailey) been lacking against very athletic opponents.

Let the game(s) begin!

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by ShipstadPilot11 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 10:58 am

My attempts to log in to the Chatbox are be thwarted right now. Namely, my clicking of "log in" doesn't cause anything to happen. Nut, any advice? I've tried in both IE and Chrome.

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by NoPoNeighbor on Sat Nov 10, 2012 11:01 am

Has anyone been able to connect to the video stream? I'm having problems...

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by ShipstadPilot11 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 11:02 am

NoPoNeighbor wrote:Has anyone been able to connect to the video stream? I'm having problems...
Go here: http://client.stretchinternet.com/client/ohio.portal#
Click "Watch" it's working for me, although sound just cut out.

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by DJ Sherman on Sat Nov 10, 2012 11:14 am

SP11, did you try accessing the chatbox through the link on the home page?

Meanwhile the lag between the video and Jason Brough's play-by-play. Outside of the Carr ankle injury, this looks like an interesting team through the first media timeout. Hopefully they can be this energetic late in the second half!

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Re: The Season Begins & Pomeroy

Post by DJ Sherman on Sat Nov 10, 2012 12:10 pm

At the half, it is tied at 33. However, Ohio leads the TO battle 8-13.

The students have not been pleased at some of the calls, but they are facing WCC refs...

Pressley had a nice block, Nicholas hit an open 3 but DJ cooper hits a 3 with hits a 3 from the edge of the "O" and a steal to a layup for a 5-0 run to tie it before the half.

The halftime interview with Kevin Bruinsma, the Director of Basketball Technology broke down among other things the Teaching board. With the ability of players to see what they did in the last practice look at "hidden plays" that might not show up on the stats sheet and to study opponents at any time, the renovation might be well worth the cost.

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