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2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:32 pm

On first weekend we'll have 32 host sites. Second weekend we have the pods of 4 with the top 8 likely hosting assuming no upsets the first weekend. Current top 8 adjusted rpi are Stan, FSU, UCLA, BYU, PSU, SD St, FL, and UNC. We could have 3 pods in CA and two in FL.

We know from last year that poor rpi auto bids usually go play a top 16 seeded team first weekend even if that means traveling some distance.

Those conf would be: Am E ( Hartford current conf leader as BU not allowed to play in conf tourney I believe since they are switching conf). Atl Sun (Mercer), Big Sky (PSU), Big S. (Hit Point or Radford), Horizon (Detroit), MVC (Drake), NE (Monmouth), OVC (Tenn Martin), Patriot (Navy or Colgate), Southern (Samford), SWAC (Jackson St ro MVSC), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (Mid Tenn).

All this depends on outcome of conf tourneys. For example if PSU gets Big Sky bid they probably go to seed in CA. Last year Montana went to Stanford first round I recall. If N. Col wins then they probably go to BYU. UP likely to match up with Pac 12 again first round (UW OSU or WSU are all possibilities).



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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:02 pm

Last year first round opponents for seeds

#1 seeds: Mont 267 @ Stan, Oakland # 177 @ WF, Samford # 58 at FSU, Radford # 132 at Duke.

#2 seeds: LIu 89 at UVA, NM 68 at UCLA, Ark-PB 219 at Ok st, FLGC 71 @ FL

3# seeds: LSU 43 at A&M, LB St 19 at Pep, Ut St 59 @ Aub, W&M 37 at UNC

#4 seeds: UT-Martin 116 @ Memphis, Oh St 34 at Tenn, Marist 124 at BC, Army #73 at PSU.

A few seeds like Pep and UNC and Tenn got tough first round opponents. Not sure why Tenn got seed since high rpi an I think they got beat along with Pep first round.

Mont and Ut St traveled quite a distance rather than playing someone closer like WSU for example.

These are unadj rpi off nc-soccer site.


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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:37 pm

Gnarly, I don't have the energy -- or know how on this site -- to format this properly. But, here are the 2011 tournament first round pairings, with Adjusted RPI ratings and the rating difference between opponents, for what it's worth. I could be wrong, but I don't think the NCAA set the first round pairings up to give the high seeds easy games. Once they set the seeds, I think they set the overall bracket up to minimize travel costs. Doing that is complicated, since it involves consideration of not only the first round games but also the second-third round foursomes, as well as the rule that teams from the same conference can't meet in either the first or second rounds.

Team Site Rating Rating Difference
Stanford H 0.679 0.2804
MontanaU A 0.3986

TexasU A 0.5782 -0.0209
SouthCarolina H 0.5991

SantaClara H 0.6293 0.0363
California A 0.593

Marist A 0.5139 -0.1194
BostonCollege H 0.6333

Auburn H 0.6385 0.0714
UtahState A 0.5671

LaSalle A 0.5989 -0.0145
Maryland H 0.6134

IllinoisU H 0.6259 0.0348
NotreDame A 0.5911

ArkansasPineBluff A 0.4453 -0.2159
OklahomaState H 0.6612

Virginia H 0.6851 0.1522
LongIsland A 0.5329

WashingtonState A 0.5768 -0.0436
KentuckyU H 0.6204

WestVirginiaU H 0.6327 0.0285
VirginiaTech A 0.6042

LSU A 0.6003 -0.0487
TexasA&M H 0.649

Memphis H 0.6797 0.1653
TennesseeMartin A 0.5144

Dayton A 0.6232 0.027
Louisville H 0.5962

OregonState H 0.5981 0.0183
PortlandU A 0.5798

Samford A 0.5679 -0.1096
FloridaState H 0.6775

WakeForest H 0.6924 0.2173
Oakland A 0.4751

Harvard A 0.5751 -0.0283
BostonU H 0.6034

Marquette H 0.6226 0.0633
Toledo A 0.5593

Army A 0.5487 -0.0897
PennState H 0.6384

NorthCarolinaU H 0.6471 0.0477
William&Mary A 0.5994

TexasState A 0.556 -0.0803
Baylor H 0.6363

UCF H 0.6124 0.0505
FIU A 0.5619

FloridaGulfCoast A 0.5571 -0.1016
FloridaU H 0.6587

UCLA H 0.6544 0.0984
NewMexicoU A 0.556

SanDiegoU A 0.6088 -0.0149
UCIrvine H 0.6237

MiamiFL H 0.6107 0.0194
AlabamaU A 0.5913

LongBeachState A 0.6038 -0.0493
Pepperdine H 0.6531

TennesseeU H 0.621 0.0425
OhioState A 0.5785

IllinoisState A 0.5415 -0.0827
Milwaukee H 0.6242

KansasU H 0.5937 0.0051
GeorgiaU A 0.5886

Radford A 0.5049 -0.2043
Duke H 0.7092

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:48 pm

thx

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:01 pm

With only two weeks left in regular season we're getting more clairity on who will make the tourney this year.

For conferences that will have multiple berths I predict:

ACC: FSU, UNC, WF, Vir, Duke, BC, MD, VT pretty much a lock on making it. Miami is a long shot at this point with a 55 adj RPI. Everyone but BC, MD, and VT also likely to be seeded one of the 16 seeded handed out. Also look for a lot of ACC teams (not FSU and UNC) coming west in the second weekend to play in pods of 4 teams likely at Stanford, UCLA, BYU, SD St, and maybe SCU.

Big 12: Baylor (likely seeded). WV, and TT in. Of note, Ok St likely out this year!

Big E: ND, MQ, GT, Rut in. Lou on Bubble.

Big Ten: PSU (seeded), Oh St, Mich, Wis in. Minn on Bubble.

Conf USA: UCF in while Col C on bubble.

Ivy: Likely to have 2 teams this year in Dartmouth and Princeton.

Pac 12: Stanford and UCLA to be seeded. Cal, UW, OSU, and Utah in. ASU good enough RPI but losing record issues. WSU on bubble.

SEC: FL, Tenn, and A&M seeded. Kent, Mizz, and maybe Aub if they don't finish below 500.

In WCC: BYU, SCU, and Pep could all get seeds and UP in to.

Like I said before expecting we'll get paired with one of our PAC 12 rivals (UW, WSU, and OSU likely.)


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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:19 pm

A number of conferences will have only the automatic berth and will not have any at large bids. Those are:


Americna East: BU has best rpi at 71, but since they are switching conf I don't think they get to play in conf tourney so they are out. Hartford has next best conf record. Anyone know of other teams that are excluded from conf tourney this year?

Atl Sun: FL GC leads the league and has best rpi at 73.

Big Sky: Mont has best rpi at 171 but ID St and PSU and Mont all have identical 6-2-1 conf records.

Big S.: Radford has best RPI but HP has #1 conf record.

Colonial: W&M leads conf and has best rpi at 59. Maybe on bubble but I doubt if they make tourney if they lose conf tourney.

Horizon: Wr St has best RPI at 140 but Mil and Det lead conf.

Metro Atl: Fairfield has best rpi at 124 and is tied with Marist for league record.

MVC: Ill St has best RPI at 133 but Evansville leads league.

NE: St Fr has best rpi at 117 and leads league.

OVC: Tenn-Martin has best rpi at 167 and leads league.

Patriot: Navy has best rpi at 92 and leads league.

Southern: UNC-GR has best rpi at 66 and leads league.

SWAC: Jackson St has best rpi at 286 but MVSC leads league.

Summit: Oakland has best rpi at 169 but IPFW leads league.

Sun Belt: N. Texas has best rpi at 60 and leads league.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:32 pm

There are a few conf that have a good team or two but what if that team is upset in conf tourney?

Atl 10: LaSalle rpi is 47 while Dayton is on bubble also at 52. LaSalle is 7-0 in conf while Dayton 6-1.

Big W: LB St probably has good enough rpi to be in at 37, but Cal Poly leads the league followed by UC-I, CS-N, CS-F and then LB St.

Mid American: CMU lilely in at 32, but MI (Oh) leads league and has 54 rpi.

MT W: SD St likely seed but UNLV is next best rpi at 84.

Southland: SFA likely in at 39.

WAC: Denver has best rpi at 36 but is second in conf to Utah St.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:43 pm

I'll start to take a look at who our top teams beat and who they lost to get a picture of this year's seeds after next weekend.

Last year our #1 seeds were: Duke (rpi 1), Stanford ( rpi 2), WF (rpi 3), and FSU (rpi 4)

#2 seeds: Vir (rpi 5), OK St (rpi 6), UCLA (rpi 10), and FL (rpi 11)

#3 seeds: UNC ( rpi 7, A&M (rpi 12), Pep (rpi 14), and Aub (rpi 18).

#4 seeds: Memphis (rpi Cool, PSU (rpi 9), BC (rpi 13), and Tenn (rpi 33?)

Baylor and MD who were top 16 rpi last year did not get a seed. If you are in top 16 your chances are very good though.


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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:01 pm

Gnarly, based on what's happened over the last 5 years, the probability is that the seeds and the at large selections will come from the following in the Adjusted RPI ratings that will come out tomorrow covering games through today (10/21):

#1 seeds: teams ranked 1-8
#2 seeds: teams ranked 1-20
#3 seeds: teams ranked 1-30
#4 seeds: teams ranked 1-43

Teams that will be "in" either as conference champs or as at large selections: teams ranked 1-25

Teams that are out: teams ranked 59 or poorer

Thus the current "bubble" group is teams ranked 26-58

Ultimately, the bubble group should narrow down to 15 teams.

I'm wondering if the 0.500 minimum record requirement to even be considered for an at large bid will play a significant role this year.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by Geezaldinho on Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:23 am

Well, we don't have to sweat the .500 minimum this year. We just hit that with four games to go. Smile

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Tue Oct 23, 2012 7:55 pm

Looking at last year, first year under the 1-2-1-2 format, definately top seeds getting easy games first weekend.

#1 seeds: Stanford host Montana (Big Sky) rpi 274. FSU host Samford (Southern) 58, WF host Oakland (Summit) 188, Duke host Radford (Big South) 139.

#2 Seeds: Ok St host Ark PB (SWAC) 230, UVA hosts LIU (NE) 91, FL host FL GC (Atl Sun) 70, UCLA host NM (Mt W) 71.

#3 seeds: Auburn host Utah St( WAC) 59, A&M had tough match up hosting LSU (SEC) 33. UNC also got tough match up hosting W&M 34, Pep also got tough LB St (Big W) 31.

#4 seeds: BC host Marist (Metro Atl) 124, Memphis hosted UT-Martin (OVC) 122, PSU hosted Army (patriot) 80, and Tenn hosted Oh St( Big 10) 50.

Other high rpi teams were Toledo (mid-Am) 67 sent to MQ, Texas St (Southland) 72 to Baylor, FIU (SunBelt) 62 to UCF, Ill St(MVC) 85 to Milwaukie. These seem justified based on travel costs.

There also was a significant amount of travel second weekend: To the Stanford pod BC and S. Car, to the Ok St pod Aub and MD, no sure if ILL is 400 miles or not. To the UVA pod: WSU and A&M, UP to the FSU pod, MQ to WF pod, Baylor to FL pod, Miami to UCLA pod, Mil to Duke pod.

This year expect at least as much travel the second weekend given Stanford, UCLA, SD St, BYU, and SCU all with top 8 adj. rpi as of today. That is a lot of teams from out west and that means a bunch of ACC, Big East, Big Ten, and SEC teams coming out West second weekend.

Candidates for travel from those conferences could include:

ACC: WF, Duke, UVA, BC, MD, and VT.
BIG E: ND, MQ, GT, RUT, LOU
Big Ten: Oh St, Mich, Wis, Minn
SEC: FL, Tenn, A&M, Kent, Mizz, and Aub.

Teams in the West that are not in top 8 rpi include: Big sky representative. If a Weber St or N. Col then probably matched with BYU first round. If PSU likely goes to CA but could go to NW PAC 12 team or UP but I doubt it. NW PAC 12 teams UW, WSU, and OSU in running to make tourney. I predict OSU to visit UP this year given shortest travel distance and UP has better rpi this year. Other teams in the West that could be in are Col C out of Conf USA. Utah from Pac 12. Those two might play first round and winner joins BYU pod. I expect Big W representative to go to either SD St or Pep first round. I think Stanford and UCLA get weaker team shipped in. Cal might be matched with SCU first round like last year. Bet they are sick of that matchup.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:11 am

here are some probably first round match-ups given travel and rpi consideations. We won't know who will play the seeded teams until conf tourneys are done as those teams likely to get the weaker teams first round.

MQ (Big E) v. Wis (Big 10)

MD (ACC) v. GT (Big E)

TT (Big 12) v. SFA (Southland)

CMU v. Mich (Big 10)

LB St (Big W) v. Col. C. (Conf USA)

MI (ACC) v. UCF (Conf USA).

As we know seeds are still up in the air as are weak teams from weaker conf. The teams I have mentioned are mid range and all likely to make tourney.


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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:28 pm

With a week left in season here are top adj rpi courtecy of nc-soccer.com.

1. Stanford
2. UCLA
3 PSU
4. FSU
5. SD St
6 BYU
7 SCU
8 VIR
9 FL
10 UNC
11 Baylor
12 WF
13 Tenn
14 A&M
15 Duke
16 OH St
17/18 UP/ND
19 UCF
20 WV

Looking a their individual records I expect top 4 to get the #1 seeds.

Could see some movement in #2 seeds and I am thinking UVA and SCU will depend on games this week.

Baylor's wins not that great so they could move either to 4 seed or out of seed.

The adj. rpi in 17-20 are almost identical. Definately UP has shot of moving up depending on this weeks games.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Tue Oct 30, 2012 10:50 pm

(Looking at the top rpi seeds trying to determine who might get a 1 seed here is summary of info off nc-soccer: (note that other teams rpi are those listed on nc-soccer schedule page which are URPI.)

Stanford: 16-1-1, adj rpi 1, loss: WV (17 urpi ), ties: BC 24.

top 1-40 wins: SCU 9, PSU 3, GT 27, SD St 5, ASU 38, UW 32, UCLA 2

remaining games: Cal 23



UCLA: 15-1-2. 2, loss: Stanford 1, Ties: LMU 76, WSU 41

top 1-40 wins: Wis 34, Tenn 12, Pep 26, ASU 38, UW 32, Cal 23

remaining game: USC 126



PSU: 16-2-1, 3, losses: Stanford 1, BYU 6, tie: Mich 19

top 1-40 wins: Vir 7, WV 17, Wis 34, Oh St 16,

next game: Iowa 55 (big 10 tourney)



SD St, 17-1-1, Loss: Stanford 1, Tie: SCU 9

top 1-40 wins: ASU 38, Pep 26, UP 20

next game: Will play winner of UNLV/Fr St Friday.



FSU 16-2-0, 5, Losses: BC 24, MI 48

top 1-40 wins: FL 8, Duke 15, WF 11, UNC 10, VT 30, Vir 7, MD 31, BC 24

next game: Vir 7 in ACC tourney.



BYU: 16-1-1, 6, Loss: Utah 57, tie: SCU 9

top 1-40 wins: LB St 40, PSU 3, UW 32, UP 20

next games: LMU 76, Pep 26



SCU 10-3-5, 7, Losses: Stanford 1, ND 18, Pep 26

ties: Uconn 66, GT 27, SD St 5, BYU 6, SF 159

top 1-40 wins: Cal 23.

next games: UP 20, SMC 190.



VIR, 14-4-1, 8, Losses: PSU 3, MD 31, WF 11, FSU 4, tie: UNC 10

top 1-40 wins: Duke 15, VT 30, BC 24, UNC 10

next game: FSU 4 in ACC tourney



As of now I would give nod to #1 seeds of: Stanford, UCLA, BYU (given win over PSU) and PSU (only losses to Stan and BYU). FSU lots of top 1-40 wins but a couple of recent losses. If they take ACC tourney don't count them out of getting #1 seed.

We'll wait for the remaining games and you can make your own prediction.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:27 pm

UCLA's wins aren't that impressive. And, last year, it looked to me like the Committee looked at the conferences' average ARPI rankings and gave them some consideration -- which is why Tennessee got a seed.

Given that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Florida State or the winner of the ACC Tournament get a #1 seed. The ACC is the top conference in terms of average ARPI, by quite a bit, so the Committee may conclude that the ACC should get one of the #1 seeds.

I think you're right about BYU getting a #1 if they win out. I can see Stanford, Florida State, BYU, and Penn State. Of course, it's all contingent on what happens over the next 5 days.


Last edited by UPSoccerFanatic on Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Wed Oct 31, 2012 9:58 pm

I was wondering if WV might move up into seeding position as the only team to beat Stanford. However, with their loss to TCU today in conference tourney they probably won't now.

LB St is another interesting case. They are about 40 rpi (best in conference) but didn't even make their conf tourney of top 4 teams. Anyone have an opinion on them making the tourney?

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:22 pm

gnarly wrote:I was wondering if WV might move up into seeding position as the only team to beat Stanford. However, with their loss to TCU today in conference tourney they probably won't now.

LB St is another interesting case. They are about 40 rpi (best in conference) but didn't even make their conf tourney of top 4 teams. Anyone have an opinion on them making the tourney?

Long Beach State might be a bubble team, currently at #39. (Right now, the bubble would begin at #40, so they'd be safe.) If a bubble team, then with wins over Baylor (#11) and Michigan (#17), they ordinarily would look really good for an at large selection. But, this may be the first case I've seen where they get dinged on the other of the secondary criteria -- results over the last eight games (a criterion I don't like). Over the last eight games, they're 4-4. None of the wins is memorable and the four losses are to ## 101, 106, 55, and 54. They're probably good for a selection, but I'd be sweating it if I were LBS.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:01 pm

Just a little question here Gnarly, for you and others:

Question: Which is better for a pretty highly ranked team -- a #4 seed or no seed?

Background: A #4 seed will get to host its first round game, against a team with a poorer ARPI. The next weekend, it will travel to a #1 seed's site for that weekend's two games. The first game will be against an unseeded team and, if it wins, the second game will be against the #1 seed (barring an upset).

A highly ranked, but unseeded, team ordinarily will avoid a seeded team in the first round. In addition, it ordinarily will get to host its first round game and will be matched against a team with a poorer ARPI. For the second weekend, it will travel either to a #1 seed's site or to a #2 seed's site. If at a #1 seed's site, in the first game it could play either a #1 or a #4 seed. If at a #2 seed's site, in the first game it could play either a #2 or a #3 seed.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Thu Nov 01, 2012 9:49 pm

I throw out a possible list of the 8 hosts the second weekend:

1: Stanford joined by seed Duke.

2. FSU Joined by seed Baylor

3. BYU joined by seed A&M

4. PSU joined by seed OH St

5. Vir joined by seed Tenn

6. UCLA joined by seed WF.

7. FL joined by Seed UNC

8. SD St joined by SCU.

Were assuming no upsets first round and if top seeds win elite 8 will be Stanford v. SD St, FSU v. FL, PSU v. Vir, and BYU v. UCLA.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by Geezaldinho on Thu Nov 01, 2012 10:04 pm

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:Just a little question here Gnarly, for you and others:

Question: Which is better for a pretty highly ranked team -- a #4 seed or no seed?

Background: A #4 seed will get to host its first round game, against a team with a poorer ARPI. The next weekend, it will travel to a #1 seed's site for that weekend's two games. The first game will be against an unseeded team and, if it wins, the second game will be against the #1 seed (barring an upset).

A highly ranked, but unseeded, team ordinarily will avoid a seeded team in the first round. In addition, it ordinarily will get to host its first round game and will be matched against a team with a poorer ARPI. For the second weekend, it will travel either to a #1 seed's site or to a #2 seed's site. If at a #1 seed's site, in the first game it could play either a #1 or a #4 seed. If at a #2 seed's site, in the first game it could play either a #2 or a #3 seed.
.

My take is that it doesnt matter much, except you aren't guaranteed you will play someone close to a natural seeding if you aren't ranked. I think the committe could send 17-64 anywhere they want to save travel money.

Any way you look at it, anything past #8 travels the second weekend, and to get out of it, you have to beat 2 top teams instead of 1.

But I keep thinking #15 and #16 are cursed this year.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Thu Nov 01, 2012 10:06 pm

Gnarly, if Ohio State is #16 (one of the #4 seeds based on your post), how would you set it up if (1) Notre Dame replaced them or (2) Portland replaced them? I ask because using the NCAA's criteria (which are not mandatory for seeding), I think either Notre Dame or Portland would jump ahead of them in the seeding process, even if Ohio State had a higher RPI.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:20 am

More questions than answers given yesterday's games.

Top 16 ARPI are: Stan, SD St, PSU, FSU, UCLA, BYU, Vir, FL, Baylor, SCU, UNC, Tenn, Duke, OH St, WF, A&M. (thx nc-soccer.com)

Assuming they win out I expect Stanford, SD St, and BYU to be # 1 seeds.

Expect ACC team to round out that group could be FSU, could be UVA if they win auto bid.

I think they will give only 1 team from TX a seed to cut down on travel. Baylor hasn't beat anyone strong and A&M 15 ARPI.

SCU has so many ties. I expect them to be a 3 seed.

MD is currently 25 ARPI. If they win ACC auto bid, they could easily get a seed. I think seeding committee will want to do this given so many teams from NE/Mid Atlantic.

Travel is going to be an issue this year with so many seeds out west and not that many other local teams making the tourney and those that do are mainly PAC 12 teams.

Quickly looking at the West: Stanford, SD St, BYU, SCU, ULCA close to locks on being seeds. From PAC 12 you have CAL, ASU, UW, WSU likely to make tourney, OSU is very much on bubble after loss to UO. From WCC in addition to seeds BYU and SCU, UP (possible seed), Pep. Other possible tourney teams: LB St, CS N, CS=F, Mont or Id St (likely visiting BYU in round 1), Col C, and Denver. All in all, not that many teams given 5 likely seeds. UP's first round opponent I am predicting UW/WSU most likely now.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:39 am

Gnarly, the other factor to take into consideration is that teams from the same conference cannot play each other in either of the first two rounds. So, in siting teams for the first weekend's game, the Committee will be having to think about the second weekend's games also.

Colorado College may not be a lock for an at large selection -- they have a win over #20 UCF, which might do it, but that's their only notable good result.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Sun Nov 04, 2012 9:07 pm

We'll all the conf tournaments are done and we know who the automatic qualifiers are. Question to be answered tomorrow are who gets seeded and who gets the at large bids???

First for the seeds:

ADJ RPI:

1. Stanford

2. SD St

3. PSU

4. BYU

5 FSU

6 UCLA

7 VIR

8 FL

9 Baylor

10 UNC

11 SCU

12 OH St

13 MQ

14 Tenn

15 Duke

16 WF

I am only going to pick the #1 and #2 seeds since it doesn't matter much for #3 and #4 seeds since you don't host the second weekend. UP at 19 has shot at a seed but they will only host first weekend anyway for example.

#1 seeds: Stanford, SD St, BYU, and Vir.

#2 seeds: PSU, FSU, UCLA and FL.

Don't be surprised if UCLA passed over by committee as they probably don't want 3 of the 8 host sites in CA, plus BYU in the West. Could be ACC team replacing UCLA.

Next the cutoff for at large bids would be 47 on rpi (assuming they took teams in order) since so many weak teams getting auto bids this year. I am bumping Col C. and Rutgers (46 & 47) in favor of MI (FL) and Auburn based on recent wins.

I'm not going to try and predict the whole bracket. You can't figure what committee will do anyway. I would predict Stanford on opposite side of bracket as BYU/SD St assuming #1 seeds make it to College Cup. UCLA probably gets paired with SD St in round of 8. If UP wins opening round at home, I expect they will head to CA for pod of 4 teams. Their likely opponet is an ACC team that gets 3 or 4 seed like Duke or WF.

I did pick the first round matchups: I struggled with what to do with all the NY teams ( Stony Brook, Hofstra, LIU, and Colgate).

Here they are with respective RPI

Stanford (1)/MVSC 285

SD St (2) / ASU (39)

PSU (3) / Colgate (86)

BYU (4) / ID St (194)

FSU (5) / Geo Southern (174)

UCLA (6) / CS-Northridge (51)

VIR (7) / Loyola (MD) 116

FL (Cool / FL GC (53)

Baylor (9) / N. Texas (59)

UNC 10 / Radford (87)

SCU (11) / Cal 28

OH St (12) / Oakland (122)

MQ (13) / Mil-WI (120)

Tenn (14) / UT-Martin (130)

Duke (15) / Aub (48)

WF (16) / Hofstra (94)

UCF (17) / MI (FL) 50

A&M (18) / Den (34)

UP 19 / WSU (44) (UW could be coming here and WSU gets shipped, but I predict we'll get the weaker rpi team)

Mich (20) / CMU (36)

ND (21) / ILL St (107)

TT (22) / SFA (27)

BC (23) / Dartmouth (37)

Pep (24) / LB St (40) wouldn't be surprised if they skip LB St.

Mizz (25) / ILL (43)

MD (26) / GT (31)

WV (29) / VT (30)

Kent (32) / Lou (45)

UW (33) / Utah St 45

LaSalle (35) / Stony Brook (139)

MI (OH) (38) / Wis (42)

Princeton (41) / LIU (156)

We'll see at 1:30 how many I get correct.

Expect a lot of travel second weekend. Last year even with fewer seeds out West we had: S. Car and BC flying out to Stanford, Aub and MD flying out to Ok St, WSU and A&M flying to VIR, MQ flying to WF, Baylor flying to FL, MI (FL) flying to UCLA, and Milwaukee flying to Duke.

Expect to see everyone at the game next weekend against a foe from the Evergreen state.

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Re: 2012 Host sites

Post by gnarly on Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:18 am

AWK has OSU making tourney and if they do, it would be OSU as our opponent.

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