by the numbers

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by the numbers

Post by Geezaldinho on Fri Nov 23, 2007 11:11 pm

Starting with the usual caveats (they have to play the game...yada, yada)

Kenneth Massey has UP winning by 1.54 goals, with a 1.84 goal standard deviation.

Albyn Jones also gives us pretty good odds. He says:

UP wins 71.68% of the time (2.5:1 odds)
Tennessee wins 16.69% of the time (1:5 odds)
tHere;s a tie or shootout 11.63% of the time (1:7.6 odds)

Roughly speaking if we played 10 times, UP would win 7 times, lose twice, and 1 game would go to shootout.


That correlates well with the 219 point rating advantage with home field, which says that out of every 9 games played, UP should win 8 or slightly better.
UP's Standard deviation is 84 points, Tennessee's is 70 points

But remember- the UP women have only lost 15 games in the 18 year History of Merlo Field, including playoff games. Santa Clara probably accounts for 4 or 5 of them, UNC accounts for 3.

And these Tennessee kids have never experienced a Merlo Crowd.

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Re: by the numbers

Post by FANatic on Sat Nov 24, 2007 4:48 am

You're right about Merlo. It must be a shock for most visiting teams to have to deal with the crowd and the atmosphere. Twisted Evil

Conversely, the home field seems to elevate the Pilots emotionally so that their feet are just a wee little bit off the ground, especially for night games. That's why they seem to be floating on air like butterflies in a meadow teeming with colorful flowers on a beautiful sunny day. sunny

(Why do I always end up saying such dumb things......scratch )

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Re: by the numbers

Post by PilotNut on Sat Nov 24, 2007 9:39 am

I dont think there is any doubt that the Merlo fans get into the heads of the opposing team--we have heard many times before (Like the GU girl mentioned in the Trib article) about the crowd... And how opposing teams react to the student section on the rare occasion of a goal.

I think that teams who have never played here before (i.e. Tennessee) are even more surprised. Beware, Vols... Twisted Evil

The crowd gets into our players as well, no doubt about it. Dang I wish I could be there tonight! Yell for me! Exclamation

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Re: by the numbers

Post by A_Fan on Sat Nov 24, 2007 11:59 am

I hope the students come back to campus for the match and have their wits about them. I especially liked earlier in the year when one of them yelled across the field to the opposing coach that one of his players had made an inappropriate hand gesture and he (the UP student) demanded an apology. It cracked me up and I'm sure got into the head of the player who made that gesture.

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Re: by the numbers

Post by PurplePrideTrumpet on Sat Nov 24, 2007 11:23 pm

Now that's funny...reminds me of 2002, my senior year, when after our 4th or 5th goal against Richmond in our third round game, we sang "The Itsy Bitsy Spider" (their mascot is a spider). Then there's watching Sinclair's OT winner in the final in the basement of Christie before our band concert, but that's another story...

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Re: by the numbers

Post by PilotDrummer on Sat Nov 24, 2007 11:47 pm

HAhahaha...A_Fan and PurplePrideTrumpet, I remember both of those games...

A_Fan, that game was great. as I recall, I'd gone to drum at that game and we (the alumni drummers and the drum squad) were getting under their skin. She definately flipped the drum squad off.

That section has been flipped off, gestured and waved at, taunted...I remember one game when I was still a student where we heckled one guy who was wearing sparkly red cleats. He scored a goal, ran in front of the drummers, stopped, and pointed at his cleats. I believe the response was "you're still not in Kansas anymore, Dorothy!" I believe the men won that one.

I remember that Richmond game (and the Stanford game after it during the Thanksgiving break that year). I remember how unhappy Cansler was with the band members when we didn't all show up on time for rehearsal before the Christmas concert.

As for the Stanford game in 2002, that's another story...but it was awesome.

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Re: by the numbers

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Sun Nov 25, 2007 12:01 am

Speaking of which, remember Santa Clara's Chardonnay Poole? I remember the guys taunting here mercilessly for years. She was a great player and managed to flip the guys off after SC beat the Pilots at Merlo. I hated the loss but have to confess, I appreciated the poetry of the moment.

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