Do I Change My Flight Now?

This team is trending up. Losing vs. USF, vs. GU and @ LMU by a combined 16 points is way better than I would have anticipated at the beginning of the year or the beginning of conference play. I think we can come up with a few more wins in the next month!

Well, we've beaten SCU once alreay this year, and Thursday is Groundhog's Day.......................

Agreed that we are trending upward, and a win vs. LMU would have been huge in this regard... but that is water under the bridge now.

As I see it, for us to avoid the 8/9 game, we need to win @SCU & @Pepp... that alone would give us 4 wins, and tie breakers over both of them via a season sweep. That would mean that either Pepp or SCU would need 5 wins to surpass us. A win for us @USD would mean that they would need 6 wins to move ahead.

Here are their remaining games:
SCU: Portland, @USD, @USF, @SMC, GU, BYU, Pepp, @LMU.
Pepp: @LMU, GU, USD, @BYU, Portland, @SCU.

Making the big assumption that we beat both of them on the road (a very big assumption since we have not won on the road yet), one of them would need to get to 5 wins to surpass us. SCU, at 0-8 currently, would then need to win 5 of their last 7 (after losing to us), and I dont see that happening.

Pepp is currently 2-8, and with a loss to us would need to win 3 of the other remaining games. If they were to win @SCU, I still dont see them winning 2 of the other 4 games (@LMU, GU, USD, @BYU).

The bottom line: If we win @SCU & @Pepp, we are looking good. Another W along the way and we are looking REALLY good, and could sneak into the #6 spot...

PilotNut wrote:and could sneak into the #6 spot...

That's the kind of optimism I like!

#stillhaven'tchangedmyflight

PilotNut wrote:and could sneak into the #6 spot...

What if we win out? A top four bye?

Nothing too exciting on tap in the WCC tomorrow. I guess LMU (9-3) at GU (9-2) in a matchup for 2nd place has to be the premier game, but most pundits see GU winning this by as much as 15.

In other action:

PU @ BYU; BYU favored by 20
USF @ USD; a tossup
SCU @ SMC; SMC favored by 24

I’ll leave it to others to figure out the tie-breaker ramifications, but for our Pilots to avoid the Wednesday night game in Las Vegas (it is close to certain the Pilots Women will play on Wednesday afternoon) they have got to beat PU in Malibu on 2/18.

The Pilots have four remaining games: @USD; @PU; SMC; and @BYU.

The Waves have three remaining league games (and a non-league tilt against Seattle U): @BYU; UP; and @ SCU.

The schedule appears to favor the Waves, and no matter how I twist the numbers, it would also appear an 8th place finish and a Wednesday night tournament game is inevitable unless the Pilots win in Malibu.

For a totally headache giving look at the “official” WCC Handbook rules on tiebreakers go to PilotNut’s thread from two years ago: http://www.pilotnation.net/t1924-official-wcc-basketball-tiebreakers.

Yep, I was hoping for win against LMU last night. I'm of the same mindset and think I might as well just change the flight.

If I change my flight now, that should help us a win at PU.

#stillhaven'tchangedmyflight

blacksheep wrote:Yep, I was hoping for an LMU win last night. I'm of the same mindset and think I might as well just change the flight.

I'm guessing you wrote this on your "smart" phone. How smart can a phone be if it wouldn't correct you by saying somehthing like, "I was hoping for a win against LMU last night."

DoubleDipper wrote:

blacksheep wrote:Yep, I was hoping for an LMU win last night. I'm of the same mindset and think I might as well just change the flight.

I'm guessing you wrote this on your "smart" phone. How smart can a phone be if it wouldn't correct you by saying somehthing like, "I was hoping for a win against LMU last night."

You need to remember that I went to a state school. Yes, you are correct, that is what I meant.

PS - you spelled something wrong

Pepperdine got hammered today at BYU, 86 - 48. Hope they are losing heart, because we have to beat them to win the 1st tie-breaker, head-to-head. We would lose the 2nd tie-breaker, as they have a win over USF. To top that we'd have to beat SMC or BYU, and those are very tough challenges.

Here are the current standings:

SMC 23-3 12-1
GU 20-4 10-2
BYU 21-6 9-3
LMU 16-10 9-4
USF 17-10 7-6
USD 10-15 5-8
UP 6-19 3-9
PU 8-17 2-12
SCU 8-17 0-12

The Pilots have four remaining games: @USD; @PU; SMC; and @BYU.

The Waves have two remaining league games: UP and @ SCU.

Go Pilots, go Broncos!

Santa Clara held their own @SMC tonight; that will not be an easy game for Pepp. But then again, we will have beat Pepp twice by then, so it wont matter...!!

blacksheep wrote:Do I keep my flight for now and have a little faith that we can win a couple more games, or do I change the flight now to make sure I get there in time?

Ask me in 3 hours.

WCC Standings thru 2/18:

SMC 23-5 12-2
GU 21-5 11-3
BYU 23-6 11-3
LMU 18-10 10-4
USF 18-11 8-7
USD 11-16 6-8
UP 6-21 3-11
PU 9-18 3-12
SCU 8-19 0-14

The Pilots have two remaining games: SMC (Senior Night) and @BYU.

The Waves have one remaining game: @ SCU.

Pepperdine has the tie breaker by virtue of their win over USF.

The winner of the 8/9 game in Las Vegas will have to play USF and, according to many, USF is the hottest team in the WCC right now.

I just checked, there are 8 coach and 6 first class seats on Alaska 622 that arrives in LAS from PDX at 3:16pm. (Alaska 626 arrives at 11:38am, but there are 0 coach and only 6 first class available). There are, however more seats out of SEA on the three Alaska flights that get you to LAS by 3:38pm for a 6:00pm tipoff. I no nothing about the "other" airlines!