Hey we're the second luckiest team in the NCAA!

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Hey we're the second luckiest team in the NCAA!

Post by Woodless! on Thu Nov 17, 2011 4:18 pm

According to KenPom rankings today.

http://www.kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankLuck

I don't have a membership so I don't know what this means. confused

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Re: Hey we're the second luckiest team in the NCAA!

Post by blacksheep on Thu Nov 17, 2011 4:26 pm

I'm still not sure what he means (I went to a state college), but here is his explanation:


KenPom wrote:What do all the columns mean?

The new ones are Cons (Consistency) and Luck. The easiest one to understand is Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a teamís actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.


Since I'm too cheap to pay for his site, can we all just agree to use a different rating system?


Last edited by blacksheep on Thu Nov 17, 2011 4:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Hey we're the second luckiest team in the NCAA!

Post by Geezaldinho on Thu Nov 17, 2011 4:33 pm

Makes you wonder how valid the correlated Gaussian method is, doesn't it?

I imagine that Villanova had a pretty high luck rating.

That's one I want the highest rating in.

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Re: Hey we're the second luckiest team in the NCAA!

Post by dholcombe on Fri Nov 18, 2011 10:01 am

We were the luckiest the other day... If I recall Luck is not included in the rating calculation.

It just means we have a higher winning percentage than his system predicts. It's the difference between the expected winning percentage and our actual winning percentage.

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Re: Hey we're the second luckiest team in the NCAA!

Post by DoubleDipper on Sun Nov 20, 2011 12:37 am

As of games through Saturday 11/19, we are the Number 1 Team in the Nation in terms of luck.

As Ken Pom states: the luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.

So as we are now 141 in the nation and WSU is 95 (259 in terms of luck), it stands to reason that .......oh shoot, I lost my train of thought................ Question

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Re: Hey we're the second luckiest team in the NCAA!

Post by DoubleDipper on Fri Nov 25, 2011 5:16 pm

We are now 38th on the luck meter, and we've dropped to 165th in the nation.

Did anyone watch Denver beat St. Mary's at home the other night? They are definitely beatable if you can hit from the outside.

St. Louis was convincing over Washington and Villanova.

#45 New Mexico lost to Santa Clara in OT.

It's crazy I tell you!! tongue

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