UP making tourney chances

that will not be necessary...we've already got kilts...

rumor is Garrett Smith just ordered Villa a bus. see you there!

bluffMAGIC wrote:that will not be necessary...we've already got kilts...

rumor is Garrett Smith just ordered Villa a bus. see you there!

Now THAT would be impressive.

Kids these days . . . they have it so easy! We had to have our Friday and Saturday games in the afternoon! And we had to walk uphill, and . . .

bluffMAGIC wrote:that will not be necessary...we've already got kilts...

rumor is Garrett Smith just ordered Villa a bus. see you there!

Make sure you watch Green Street Hooligans on the way down.

Frankly I'm a little disappointed in the time of the game. What I mean is that I see the point in going down to watch the girls in the playoffs, but the guys needs just as much of a cheering section at their games this weekend with the conference title at stake, it's a tough call

UPPilots wrote:Frankly I'm a little disappointed in the time of the game. What I mean is that I see the point in going down to watch the girls in the playoffs, but the guys needs just as much of a cheering section at their games this weekend with the conference title at stake, it's a tough call

I agree. Maybe the Geez can find out from the internet how we can be in two places at the same time.

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:

Geezaldinho wrote:Huge win....


Huge.

Ditto, ditto, ditto. HUGE! Both now and come the end of the regular season.

From the UP v Florida State thread way back in August.

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:

UPPilots wrote:Frankly I'm a little disappointed in the time of the game. What I mean is that I see the point in going down to watch the girls in the playoffs, but the guys needs just as much of a cheering section at their games this weekend with the conference title at stake, it's a tough call

I agree. Maybe the Geez can find out from the internet how we can be in two places at the same time.

I'm doing the next best thing. Somebody will be in my seats at Merlo while I'm in Corvalis if plans go well. Time to do what you should have been doing all year, which is talking the team up to your peers. (not aimed at anyone in particular)

There isn't any reason that Merlo can't be rocking' and Lorenz field have a great UP presence as well.

The student body is the place to start, but not everyone can drive to Corvalis without missing work, so I expect a good crowd at both places.

Geezaldinho wrote:

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:

UPPilots wrote:Frankly I'm a little disappointed in the time of the game. What I mean is that I see the point in going down to watch the girls in the playoffs, but the guys needs just as much of a cheering section at their games this weekend with the conference title at stake, it's a tough call

I agree. Maybe the Geez can find out from the internet how we can be in two places at the same time.

I'm doing the next best thing. Somebody will be in my seats at Merlo while I'm in Corvalis if plans go well. Time to do what you should have been doing all year, which is talking the team up to your peers. (not aimed at anyone in particular)

There isn't any reason that Merlo can't be rocking' and Lorenz field have a great UP presence as well.

The student body is the place to start, but not everyone can drive to Corvalis without missing work, so I expect a good crowd at both places.

Great idea, Geez. Is there a way you know of to get tickets lodged somewhere at UP so that students who want them can have them?

Well, the students can get in on their passes, I think. They would have to pay in Corvalis.

If you know somebody give them tickets or call the box office about putting them in will call.

One of you students on Pilotnation might be able to find folk who could use them.

May some of you are interested in why the Women's Soccer Committee might have made its "bubble" at large selections.

By my estimation, the Committee looks at 15 bubble teams, of which it selects 8. This year, the bubble group centered at #47 with California at #40 on one end and BYU at #55 on the other end. (Harvard, at #54, was an automatic qualifier.)

Earlier today, I posted my educated guess on which teams the NCAA would select from the bubble group. I missed out on Ohio State, Texas, and Washington State, all of which the Committee selected. (These would have been my next three in.) The three I had, that the Committee did not select, were North Carolina State, Georgetown, and BYU.

After further thought, here's how I think the Committee reached its decision:

First, I think the Committee could not make a decision based on the primary criteria (RPI, Non-Conference RPI, and conference finish when comparing teams from the same conference, all combined as the first criterion; head-to-head results as the second criterion; and results against common opponents as the third). It is not unusual for the Committee not to be able to make a decision based on these criteria.

The Committee then went to the secondary criteria. These are Results Against Teams Already Selected; and Results Over the Last Eight Games (including both record and strength of opponents).

I've always wondered about what they are looking for with Results Over the Last Eight Games. I have thought they were looking simply at bad results, which is what I did in my earlier "guess." Based on the Committee's decision today, though, I've concluded that's probably wrong. Now, I'm wondering if they are looking for a team that has had either a truly spectacular run over the last eight games or a team that has had an implosion over the last eight games. This year, none of the bubble teams had either of those, so maybe Results Over the Last Eight Games became pretty meaningless this year in the secondary evaluation process.

If I'm right about that, then from my perspective it explains the Committee's decisions. They would have based them on the other secondary criterion of Results Against Teams Already Selected. You have to note that this is does not include results against other bubble teams (which already weren't sufficient to support a decision, in the Committee's mind -- with which I agree).

In looking at the bubble teams' records against teams already selected, I look at who had the best win or wins and tie or ties. One very good result can mean a lot. (From an NCAA policy perspective, this encourages teams to build tough schedules for themselves in order to get some very good wins or ties, rather than simply scheduling to the RPI.)

So, after I saw the Committee's decision, I went and looked at how I had ranked the 15 bubble teams based on their Results Against Teams Already Selected. It turns out that my rankings matched the Committee's decision exactly. Here are my rankings of the teams, with their positive results against teams already selected and with their opponents' rankings:

1. Portland: beat Florida State (6) at home; beat Oregon State (37) at home.

2. Washington State: tied Virginia (4) away; tied UCLA (9) at home.

3. Alabama: beat Auburn (13) at home; beat Tennessee (24) at home; beat South Carolina (35) at home; beat Samford (58) away; tied New Mexico (72) at home.

4. California: beat Long Beach State (31) at home; tied UCLA (9) at home.

5. Texas: tied Oklahoma State (7) away.

6. Ohio State: beat West Virginia (17) away; beat Illinois (19) at home; tied Illinois (19) at neutral.

7. Georgia: beat Kentucky (25) away; beat South Carolina (35) at home; tied Auburn (13) away.

8. Notre Dame: beat Marquette (23) away; tied Santa Clara (18) away.

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9. Richmond: beat Dayton (22) at home; beat William & Mary (34) at home.

10. BYU: tied Santa Clara (18) away.

11. North Carolina State: beat LSU (33) at home; tied Maryland (26) away; tied Miami (28) away.

12. Massachusetts: beat Boston U (32) at home; beat La Salle (36) at neutral.

13. Central Michigan: beat Louisville (38) away; beat Toledo (67) at home.

14. Stephen F. Austin: beat Texas State (71) away.

15. Georgetown: none.