UP making tourney chances

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UP making tourney chances

Post by gnarly on Sun Nov 06, 2011 9:30 pm

If you use just the adjusted RPI to figure UP's chances of making tourney then I would say we have 50/50 chance of making tourney.

You have the 30 automatic bids from each conference.

Then there are 34 at large berths.

I think those will be:

Atl 10: Lasalle at 36 arpi
ACC: 8 more teams (everyone but Clemson). NC St is the the only one who might be excluded at arpi 46.
Big 12: Ok St, Baylor, and Kansas at 39 in.
Big East: MQ, Lou, ND at 42, and GT at 43 in.
Big Ten: PSU in
Big W: UC_i in
Conf USA: UCF in
Pac 12: UCLA, OSU, and Cal in
SEC: FL, Tenn, Kentucky, AL, and Geogia in
WCC: SCU and SD in.

That leaves a couple of bids left amoung:

SFA 46 RPI 3 losses to an 66, 79 and 83 rpi.
Massechusets: Rpi 47, 5 losses to a 187, 49, 30, 29, and 48 rpi.
UP: 48 RPI 8 losses to 87, 140, 30, 2, 18, 56, 31, 16 and 10.
Richmond: 5 loses to a 132, 260, 12, 4, and 22.
Ohio St Rpi 50 rpi 8 losses to 64, 11, 22, 12, 152, 67, 113, and 57.

I give UP 50/50 chance of getting one of the last bids.

If they do make expect them to play OSU there first weekend when there is one game. Two games second weekend, but OSU would be tough at there place.

We'll see what happens at 1:30 tomorrow.






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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by Geezaldinho on Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:59 am

It looks like the selection show will be online here:

http://www.ncaa.com/live/2011-11-07/div-i-soccer-selection-show


Last edited by Geezaldinho on Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:31 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by A_Fan on Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:17 pm

Thanks, that's the page I looked at this morning. It has been updated since early this morning.

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:18 pm

I hesitate to do this, because I don't what to create -- and have -- false expectations, but here are my guesses as to what the Women's Soccer Committee will do for at large selections. I based this on my interpretation of the applicable criteria (some of my interpretations may be wrong), on my judgments as to where the teams fit under some of the criteria that call for subjective judgments, and a fairly rigid process I use. At this point I have to confess that I don't have a lot of confidence in what I've come up with, but what the heck, I'll go for it.

I've included my/nc-soccer's unofficial ARPI rankings for the teams (our rankings match).

At large selections requiring no bubble decisions:

Duke (1)
Wake Forest (3)
Virginia (4)
Oklahoma State (7)
Florida 8
UCLA (9)
Pepperdine (10)
North Carolina (12)
Penn State (14)
Baylor (15)
Boston College (16)
Santa Clara (18)
UC Irvine (21)
Marquette (23)
Tennessee (24)
Kentucky (25)
Maryland (26)
UCF (27)
Miami FL (28)
Virginia Tech (30)
LSU (33)
South Carolina (35)
La Salle (36)
Oregon State (37)
Louisville (38)
Kansas (39)

Bubble teams selected (in order selected):

Alabama (41)
North Carolina State (45)
California (40)
Portland (48) sunny
Notre Dame (42)
Georgia (44)
Georgetown (43)
BYU (55)

Bubble teams not selected (in order of "next in line"):

Ohio State (50)
Washington State (52)
Texas (51)
Massachusetts (47)
Richmond (49)
Central Michigan (53)
Stephen F Austin (46)

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by Geezaldinho on Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:28 pm

well, we are only a couple minutes away...

hthttp://www.ncaa.com/sports/soccer-women/d1

the show is listed as a story choice

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by Geezaldinho on Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:33 pm

Woo! Hoo!!!!

OSU then to FSU

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by soccerjoy on Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:37 pm

CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!! Here we come, OSU!!!!

GO PILOTS!!
cheers

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:45 pm

Depending on the day and time, I will have to travel on down to Corvallis.

EDIT: I got a little excited and didn't see that we would be playing them in Florida. Nevermind on the trip, but good job to the ladies!


Last edited by RipCityPilot on Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:22 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by OldePilot on Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:57 pm

Congratulations to the Pilots! A nice bonus after a tough year. The value of playing that rigorous non-conference schedule paid off...and things are coming together for them somewhat as witnessed Friday.

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by Geezaldinho on Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:14 pm



Last edited by Geezaldinho on Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:21 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by bluffMAGIC on Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:16 pm

Villa Drum Squad will be making an appearance... bounce

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by PilotDrummer on Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:26 pm

...sounds like a correction in the Oregonian is in order.

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:43 pm

RipCityPilot wrote:Depending on the day and time, I will have to travel on down to Corvallis.

EDIT: I got a little excited and didn't see that we would be playing them in Florida. Nevermind on the trip, but good job to the ladies!

There's only one game the first weekend, and it indeed will be in Corvallis, Friday night at 7:00 pm. We called the OSU ticket office about half an hour ago, and they did not yet know they were hosting a game.

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by DoubleDipper on Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:06 pm

Busy weekend for Pilots sports junkies in the NW:
Friday @ 6pm Womenís Basketball against Montana State at the Chiles Center
Friday @ 7pm Menís Soccer against USF at Merlo Field
Friday @ 7pm Womenís Soccer against OSU in Corvallis
Saturday @ 1130am Menís Basketball against Florida International at UW
Sunday @ 1pm Menís Soccer against Santa Clara at Merlo Field
Sunday @ 2pm Womenís Basketball against UC Irvine at the Chiles Center
Sunday @ 2:30pm Menís Basketball against Georgia State at UW
Monday @ 7pm Menís Basketball at UW (Root TV)

Letís see who can attend the most games in four days Ė I plan to see 4.5 of them!

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by PurplePrideTrumpet on Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:07 pm

bluffMAGIC wrote:Villa Drum Squad will be making an appearance... bounce

Playoff away day lads, I know you'll be up for it. Time to show the Beavers what a real firm is. Wear your best trainers and track suits. I have adidas store passes if you need to get yourselves sorted.


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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by bluffMAGIC on Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:47 pm

that will not be necessary...we've already got kilts...

rumor is Garrett Smith just ordered Villa a bus. see you there!

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by VillaGorilla on Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:07 pm

bluffMAGIC wrote:that will not be necessary...we've already got kilts...

rumor is Garrett Smith just ordered Villa a bus. see you there!

Now THAT would be impressive.

Kids these days . . . they have it so easy! We had to have our Friday and Saturday games in the afternoon! And we had to walk uphill, and . . .

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by PurplePrideTrumpet on Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:17 pm

bluffMAGIC wrote:that will not be necessary...we've already got kilts...

rumor is Garrett Smith just ordered Villa a bus. see you there!
Make sure you watch Green Street Hooligans on the way down.

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by UPPilots on Mon Nov 07, 2011 8:53 pm

Frankly I'm a little disappointed in the time of the game. What I mean is that I see the point in going down to watch the girls in the playoffs, but the guys needs just as much of a cheering section at their games this weekend with the conference title at stake, it's a tough call

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Mon Nov 07, 2011 8:57 pm

UPPilots wrote:Frankly I'm a little disappointed in the time of the game. What I mean is that I see the point in going down to watch the girls in the playoffs, but the guys needs just as much of a cheering section at their games this weekend with the conference title at stake, it's a tough call

I agree. Maybe the Geez can find out from the internet how we can be in two places at the same time.

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:12 pm

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:
Geezaldinho wrote:Huge win....


Huge.

Ditto, ditto, ditto. HUGE! Both now and come the end of the regular season. Yahoo!

From the UP v Florida State thread way back in August.

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by Geezaldinho on Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:15 pm

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:
UPPilots wrote:Frankly I'm a little disappointed in the time of the game. What I mean is that I see the point in going down to watch the girls in the playoffs, but the guys needs just as much of a cheering section at their games this weekend with the conference title at stake, it's a tough call

I agree. Maybe the Geez can find out from the internet how we can be in two places at the same time.

I'm doing the next best thing. Somebody will be in my seats at Merlo while I'm in Corvalis if plans go well. Time to do what you should have been doing all year, which is talking the team up to your peers. (not aimed at anyone in particular)

There isn't any reason that Merlo can't be rocking' and Lorenz field have a great UP presence as well.

The student body is the place to start, but not everyone can drive to Corvalis without missing work, so I expect a good crowd at both places.

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:21 pm

Geezaldinho wrote:
UPSoccerFanatic wrote:
UPPilots wrote:Frankly I'm a little disappointed in the time of the game. What I mean is that I see the point in going down to watch the girls in the playoffs, but the guys needs just as much of a cheering section at their games this weekend with the conference title at stake, it's a tough call

I agree. Maybe the Geez can find out from the internet how we can be in two places at the same time.

I'm doing the next best thing. Somebody will be in my seats at Merlo while I'm in Corvalis if plans go well. Time to do what you should have been doing all year, which is talking the team up to your peers. (not aimed at anyone in particular)

There isn't any reason that Merlo can't be rocking' and Lorenz field have a great UP presence as well.

The student body is the place to start, but not everyone can drive to Corvalis without missing work, so I expect a good crowd at both places.

Great idea, Geez. Is there a way you know of to get tickets lodged somewhere at UP so that students who want them can have them?

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by Geezaldinho on Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:28 pm

Well, the students can get in on their passes, I think. They would have to pay in Corvalis.

If you know somebody give them tickets or call the box office about putting them in will call.

One of you students on Pilotnation might be able to find folk who could use them.

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Re: UP making tourney chances

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:50 pm

May some of you are interested in why the Women's Soccer Committee might have made its "bubble" at large selections.

By my estimation, the Committee looks at 15 bubble teams, of which it selects 8. This year, the bubble group centered at #47 with California at #40 on one end and BYU at #55 on the other end. (Harvard, at #54, was an automatic qualifier.)

Earlier today, I posted my educated guess on which teams the NCAA would select from the bubble group. I missed out on Ohio State, Texas, and Washington State, all of which the Committee selected. (These would have been my next three in.) The three I had, that the Committee did not select, were North Carolina State, Georgetown, and BYU.

After further thought, here's how I think the Committee reached its decision:

First, I think the Committee could not make a decision based on the primary criteria (RPI, Non-Conference RPI, and conference finish when comparing teams from the same conference, all combined as the first criterion; head-to-head results as the second criterion; and results against common opponents as the third). It is not unusual for the Committee not to be able to make a decision based on these criteria.

The Committee then went to the secondary criteria. These are Results Against Teams Already Selected; and Results Over the Last Eight Games (including both record and strength of opponents).

I've always wondered about what they are looking for with Results Over the Last Eight Games. I have thought they were looking simply at bad results, which is what I did in my earlier "guess." Based on the Committee's decision today, though, I've concluded that's probably wrong. Now, I'm wondering if they are looking for a team that has had either a truly spectacular run over the last eight games or a team that has had an implosion over the last eight games. This year, none of the bubble teams had either of those, so maybe Results Over the Last Eight Games became pretty meaningless this year in the secondary evaluation process.

If I'm right about that, then from my perspective it explains the Committee's decisions. They would have based them on the other secondary criterion of Results Against Teams Already Selected. You have to note that this is does not include results against other bubble teams (which already weren't sufficient to support a decision, in the Committee's mind -- with which I agree).

In looking at the bubble teams' records against teams already selected, I look at who had the best win or wins and tie or ties. One very good result can mean a lot. (From an NCAA policy perspective, this encourages teams to build tough schedules for themselves in order to get some very good wins or ties, rather than simply scheduling to the RPI.)

So, after I saw the Committee's decision, I went and looked at how I had ranked the 15 bubble teams based on their Results Against Teams Already Selected. It turns out that my rankings matched the Committee's decision exactly. Here are my rankings of the teams, with their positive results against teams already selected and with their opponents' rankings:

1. Portland: beat Florida State (6) at home; beat Oregon State (37) at home.

2. Washington State: tied Virginia (4) away; tied UCLA (9) at home.

3. Alabama: beat Auburn (13) at home; beat Tennessee (24) at home; beat South Carolina (35) at home; beat Samford (58) away; tied New Mexico (72) at home.

4. California: beat Long Beach State (31) at home; tied UCLA (9) at home.

5. Texas: tied Oklahoma State (7) away.

6. Ohio State: beat West Virginia (17) away; beat Illinois (19) at home; tied Illinois (19) at neutral.

7. Georgia: beat Kentucky (25) away; beat South Carolina (35) at home; tied Auburn (13) away.

8. Notre Dame: beat Marquette (23) away; tied Santa Clara (18) away.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

9. Richmond: beat Dayton (22) at home; beat William & Mary (34) at home.

10. BYU: tied Santa Clara (18) away.

11. North Carolina State: beat LSU (33) at home; tied Maryland (26) away; tied Miami (28) away.

12. Massachusetts: beat Boston U (32) at home; beat La Salle (36) at neutral.

13. Central Michigan: beat Louisville (38) away; beat Toledo (67) at home.

14. Stephen F. Austin: beat Texas State (71) away.

15. Georgetown: none.

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