Surprises in 2011 tourney bids

Looking at the weaker conferences that are likely to have only one auto bid and no at large there is the conference tab on nc-soccer. Those with the best conf record which is a good indicator of who will win their conf tourney (all conf except IVY, PAC12, and WCC have conf tourney I believe).

American East: BU undefeated. Harford has one loss. BU might make tourney even if they lose conf tourney as they have ARPI of 36.

Atlantic 10: Lasalle is undefeated. Richmond and Mass have 1 loss. Dayton 2 losses in conf. Both LaSalle and Dayton might make the tourney if they lose conf tourney with RPI of 28 and 31 respectively.

ATL Sun: Jacksonville, FL GC, and E Tenn St all have 1 loss. The one who has best RPI is FL GC at 71. Thus, likely only single team out of this conf.

Big Sky: N. Col and our own PSU have only 1 loss. N. Col RPI is 231 and so only 1 berth from this conf.

Big South: Radford, Campbell, High Point have 1 loss. Withrop 2. Best RPI is Radford at 149 so only one berth from B.S.

Big West: UC-I and UC Davis have one loss. CS-N and LB ST both have 2. CS-I has RPI of 24 so chance of more than one berth from B.W.

Colonial: W&M has 1 loss. VCU 2. W&M rpi is 38 so there is chance of more than one berth.

Horizon: UW-M is undefeated. Detroit has 2 losses. UW-M has rpi of 23 so chance of more than one bid.

IVY: Harvard is undefeated. Penn 1 loss. Harvard rpi is 49 but no conf tourney so if they are win conf reg season only one berth for Ivy League.

Metro Atl: Toledo and CMU have 1 loss. CMU rpi is 47 so chance of more than one berth.

Mid Am: Mizz St and creighton undefeated. Ill St 1 loss. Mizz st rpi is 75 so only one berth here.

Mt West: NM undefeated. UNLV and SD St 1 loss. NM rpi is 90 so only 1 bid in Mt W.

NE: St Francis undefeated. LIU and Monmouth 2 losses. ST Fr rpi is 115 so only one bid here.

OVC: SEMO 1 loss, E. Kentucky 2. SEMO rpi is 91 so only on bid.

Patriot: Colgate undefeated. Army 1 loss. Colgate rpi is 81 so only 1 bid.

Southern: Samford undefeated. UNC-GR and College of Chas 3 losses. Samford rpi 73 so only 1 bid.

Southland: SFA undefeated. Texas St 1 loss. SFA rpi 46 so outside chance of more than one berth.

SWAC: ARK PB and Jacksonville undefeated. RPI for APB 269....

Summit: ND St and SD st undefeated. ND st rpi 133...

Sunbelt: Denver, N. Texas, and FIU all have one loss. Denver rpi is 45 (repeat of last year when they lost conf tourney and did not get bid?)

WAC: Dogfight with Utah St, Fr. St, HI, and SJ St all with one loss. Utah st rpi is 65 so likely only one bid from WAC.

With tonights games including several top teams from ACC here is how RPI is shaping up for conf with multiple berths: ACC teams continue to beat up on each other. Tongiht it was FSU over VT, VIR over MI, Duke over NC St, MD over UNC, and BC over WF.

based on nc-soccer site:

ATL 10: Both LaSalle and Dayton could come out of this conf with RPI of 29 and 30.

ACC: Could have 4 #1 seeds coming out of ACC. Duke is #1 on rpi with Vir and WF at 3 & 4. UNC 9, FSU 12, and BC 13 could get seeds. MD MI VT and NC st like to get berth with 22, 24, 26 and 37 rpi.

BIG 12: OK St 7, Baylor 14, and A&M 16 could get seeds and Kansas should get in with RPI of 32.

BIG E: MQ 15 could get seed and WV should be in at 27, but ND 39, Lou 41, and GT 42 on bubble.

Big Ten: Only PSU 11 and ILL 31 likely to make tourney.

Conf USA: Memphis s.b. seed at 6, and UCF 21 will get in.

PAC 12: Stanford s.b. #1 seed with 2 rpi. UCLA is 5. Cal 36, OSU 38, and maybe WSU 44 get in.

SEC loaded with bids this year but thinking they might be ones that get de seeded with a lot of losses. FL is 8, Kentucky 18, Aub 20, LSU 25, Tenn 28, S Car, and Geo 34 should all make tourney.

WCC: Thinking Pep or SCU gets seed at 10 and 17 depending on outcome of their game this weekend. SD at 43 on bubble. UP needs to get to 500 before they worry about rpi. They and BYU longshots.

We are now closer to that center bubble position. Next two games will be a big factor.

ID Unadjusted Adjusted
49 0.5753 0.5831