Expansion

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Expansion

Post by Pilot60 on Wed Nov 10, 2010 4:24 pm

Denver to the reconfigured WAC, looks like if there is WCC expansion its Seattle U

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Re: Expansion

Post by DaTruRochin on Wed Nov 10, 2010 4:56 pm

Yeah, but honestly with as much movement as that conference has seen, I'd hardly consider that move chiseled in granite... Plus the WAC is a football conference too, so DU isn't necessarily a perfect fit there either

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Re: Expansion

Post by MesaPilot1 on Wed Nov 10, 2010 6:44 pm

I'm with you on the fact that DENVER has a team if allowed into the WCC would be a good fit for the conference.Especially since the inclusion of our LDS friends into the conference they would "fit" nicely into their and others travel schedules.

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Re: Expansion

Post by onetouchfutbol on Wed Nov 10, 2010 8:01 pm

I think Seattle U is the best fit for our conference. Cameron Dollar is turning into a big time recruiter, and then there would actually be two Catholic Universities in major cities in the Northwest in the WCC. Smile

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Re: Expansion

Post by Stonehouse on Wed Nov 10, 2010 8:08 pm

It's fun to talk about expansion, but the WCC commissioner has made it very clear: unless a team substantively increases the conferences chances of earning another bid into the NCAA tournament (and, hence, more money), it won't be added to the conference. BYU does that, so they're in.

Seattle U? They're a long way from that point.

No other argument (history, mission "fit," proximity, scheduling woes, TV markets) matters to the WCC presidents.

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Re: Expansion

Post by onetouchfutbol on Wed Nov 10, 2010 8:18 pm

Stonehouse wrote:It's fun to talk about expansion, but the WCC commissioner has made it very clear: unless a team substantively increases the conferences chances of earning another bid into the NCAA tournament (and, hence, more money), it won't be added to the conference. BYU does that, so they're in.

Seattle U? They're a long way from that point.

No other argument (history, mission "fit," proximity, scheduling woes, TV markets) matters to the WCC presidents.

Err...I think you're underestimating how quickly Seattle U can resurrect their program, Stonehouse. Charles Garcia was considered a very exceptional NBA draft prospect, and many people felt like our win over Seattle U was a very high quality win last year that really positively affected our RPI. They might not be any further away from making the tourney than we are. It pains me to say that, but, it's true...

Sure, they don't have the home winning streak that BYU has, but, I wouldn't be surprised to see them make the NIT or NCAAs relatively soon. Few players in our league could have guarded Garcia last year...

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Re: Expansion

Post by Stonehouse on Wed Nov 10, 2010 8:33 pm

Seattle U may indeed turn into a very strong program. Cameron Dollar is definitely off to a good start.

But expanding the WCC is not about adding "good programs." It's about adding a consistent, year-in, year-out NCAA team. That's the only way it makes sense for the other conference members.

Put another way - the WCC is not interested in adding another slice of the same-sized pie. It's interested in making the pie bigger.

Honestly, the only teams currently in the WCC that would fit the WCC's criteria for expansion are Gonzaga and (maybe) St. Mary's.

The WCC is in a very strong position, and they have the right to be very picky.

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Re: Expansion

Post by onetouchfutbol on Wed Nov 10, 2010 8:51 pm

I see your point, Stonehouse. At the same time, I think there are only a limited amount of players who truly would want to get recruited to go to an LDS school. I think that BYU might get stuck in being that team that's a perennial first or second round exit in the tourney. What does that mean for the WCC? We might have gone into this answer in another post, but, is there revenue sharing?

I personally feel like the other arguments (history, fit, religious affiliation, enrollment size, mission, etc.) should be considered. Despite all the rivalries within the WCC, the institutions are remarkably similar in many ways. I'd like to see some WCC teams other than Gonzaga in Key Arena. There's some money potential there too.

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Re: Expansion

Post by Stonehouse on Wed Nov 10, 2010 9:47 pm

onetouchfutbol wrote:I see your point, Stonehouse. At the same time, I think there are only a limited amount of players who truly would want to get recruited to go to an LDS school. I think that BYU might get stuck in being that team that's a perennial first or second round exit in the tourney. What does that mean for the WCC? We might have gone into this answer in another post, but, is there revenue sharing?

I personally feel like the other arguments (history, fit, religious affiliation, enrollment size, mission, etc.) should be considered. Despite all the rivalries within the WCC, the institutions are remarkably similar in many ways. I'd like to see some WCC teams other than Gonzaga in Key Arena. There's some money potential there too.

As far as I know, the WCC splits evenly whatever money the conference earns from its NCAA appearances.

In 2009, the NCAA awarded a total of $167.1 million dollars to the conferences. That money was divided into 752 "units" of $222,206 - a unit being each appearance by a conference member plus each win by a conference member over the past six years. From 2004-09, the WCC earned 16 units, which means that for the 2009 NCAA tournament, the WCC was paid over $3.5 million (more than $444,000 per school).

Next year, the 2004 units will be replaced by the 2010 units. In 2004, Gonzaga earned two units. This year, the WCC earned five units - three by SMC and two by Gonzaga.

So, that means that for the 2011 pool, the WCC's share of units goes up to 19. Though the value of those units goes up every year, let's just use the $222,206 number again. With 19 units, the WCC's share goes up to more than $4.2 million ($527,000 per school).

Now, imagine if Seattle U were in the WCC last year. That would mean the $4.2 million is split nine ways instead of 8. That would mean a $469,000 share - over $57,000 less per school. That amount goes a long way in the WCC.

Now, let's pretend BYU were in the conference last year. BYU would have added two units (I'm counting SMC as the AQ still - so one for making it as an at-large and one for winning a game) in 2010, but let's also - just for fun - go back to their history in the six-year rolling window. They earned five units over that period of time. (In fact, BYU has made the tournament 7 of the past 10 years.)

That would bump the WCC's number up to 24 units. Which would put the WCC's share to more than $5.3 million ($592,000 per school). That's $65,000 more per school.

So, over a, say, ten year period... adding BYU - a school that has a long, proven history of making the NCAA tournament - has the potential to bring something in the neighborhood of $750,000 to each WCC school, and even more if they were to win a game or two (BYU has only made it past the first round once since 2000).

If Seattle U (or Denver, or Pacific) doesn't make the NCAA tournament over that period of time (a very likely possibility - it's one thing to be competitive, it's a whole other ball of wax to win the WCC tournament or earn an at-large bid), that could cost each WCC school something in the neighborhood of $500,000.

Those are big numbers. Very big numbers.

Does it make sense now why NCAA tournament success is really the only factor WCC presidents consider when it comes to expanding the conference?

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Re: Expansion

Post by oldtimer on Wed Nov 10, 2010 9:55 pm

From watching the GU board a few months ago when this subject came up, it was an overwhelming belief that Few wouldnt "allow" them to join the WCC. Now I dont know what kind of weight his opinion would carry, could be none but could be huge. Either way it makes sense that GU wouldnt want another Washington school in their conference to compete with in recruiting, do you guys think it would make a difference to the Pilots? I mean geographically Seattle is closer to Portland than it is to Spokane. Just a thought........

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Re: Expansion

Post by DaTruRochin on Wed Nov 10, 2010 10:37 pm

To address affecting recruiting, I think there's no question it would have some effect. Another D-I program trolling the Seattle talent pool is naturally going to create competition for recruiting, I mean look at how many Oregon kids are on the UP roster right now, and how many from the Seattleish area... But that competition is going to happen regardless of what conference SU eventually aligns with...

Sharing revenue from BYU makes perfect sense, but there are other issues with Seattle U as well. Cameron Dollar may be a good recruiter, but he takes huge risks (Charles Garcia, Clarence Trent, etc.)... and caused all sorts of recruiting violations while an assistant at UW. Plus he seems like he has much bigger ambitions than the WCC... I'd hardly consider that a merit or an asset toward the conference long term.

That doesn't even touch base on their athletic facilities situation or whatever. Sure they might be a good "fit" as far as size, affiliation, location... But they aren't good enough... yet....

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Re: Expansion

Post by onetouchfutbol on Thu Nov 11, 2010 10:05 pm

I agree that money talks. At the same time, the other factors can't be ignored completely either (enrollment, affiliation, etc.) I started to google and do a little bit of research, and I found out that Seattle U is actually already a part of the WCC in women's golf as of last August:

http://www.wccsports.com/sports/m-golf/spec-rel/082610aaa.html

WCC Commissioner Jamie Zaninovich said. "Seattle University shares a common mission and values with our member schools, and we're excited to add an affiliate member in a sport that continues to expand its profile nationally."

Maybe with time the other sports will follow suit... Who knows.

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Re: Expansion

Post by DaTruRochin on Thu Nov 11, 2010 10:16 pm

Uh oh... otf mentioned the g word....

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Re: Expansion

Post by ekrauss on Fri Nov 12, 2010 6:43 am

I think Stonehouse's analysis of Seattle U. and WCC finances is exactly right and is the analysis that the league presidents use predominantly when making their decisions. Seattle U. won't be admitted into the WCC until they can enhance the league's bottom line. And now that Montana has decided not to jump to the WAC, there might be an opening again for Seattle U. I think the Redhawks might just take it as being without league status in this economic environment just doesn't work at all.

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Re: Expansion

Post by DaTruRochin on Fri Nov 12, 2010 10:02 am

Yeah, I'd be shocked if they DIDN'T take it just for scheduling reasons alone, plus toss in the chance at shared revenue and built in exposure playing within conference I don't see how they don't take an offer. It will be interesting to see what conferences do in the future to safeguard themselves against future defections, especially since member schools have been changing partners more than Jerry Seinfeld...

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