Bracketology

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Bracketology

Post by Geezaldinho on Sat Nov 06, 2010 3:11 pm

I think we are a lock at a #1 seed at 18-1-1. We are just too far ahead.

the big question is who is our hosting partner?

#46 UW is on the bubble (it might have burst) when Middle Tenn beat #41 Denver

OSU is #20. will they jump past Wake, Irvine, AZ St, and W. VA?

We may have been saved when they lost to Irvine.

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Re: Bracketology

Post by onetouchfutbol on Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:34 pm

Is it really possible to be a lock on the West Coast? Most people at this site felt we were a lock last year, and we do have a loss to Stanford now...

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Re: Bracketology

Post by Geezaldinho on Sat Nov 06, 2010 6:22 pm

What are you trying to do? get that facial tick going again?

here's where we are right now in the adjusted RPI (thanks GoCourage). the top 3 teams are done, as is BC



note there is a pretty big jump in the ARPI and in the URPI between 3 (us) and 4 (MD)
the gap between us and MD is bigger than the gap between 4 and 6, and getting close to between 4 and 7.

There is a similar gap in the unadjusted RPI, and we also have larger bonuses and more Bonus games than those teams.

then I ran nc-soccer's random finishes until I found the worst case for us (for the top few teams) That is, MD, FLA, and OK st. all win.

BC is done. they can't close on us in RPI .. Here's what I got. this time it's unadjusted, but you can add the bonuses in and get really close. the order doesn't change at the top.





then I looked at common opponents, which the NCAA uses next


none of those teams played St. Mary's, so that can't be used for comparison.

We beat OK st., so they can't bump us, and we have no common opponent with the rest who has bested us but not them.

EXCEPT - BC tied Stanford at home, and we lost to them away.


But in order to get to a comparison with us, BC has to prove they are better than FLA and MD and they can't do that.

MD beat BC twice. Florida had 3 common opponents (Duke, FSU, and UNC) and the went 1-1-1 against them, while BC went 1-2-0

the NCAA has never gone lower in the RPI than that.

If all three teams still in play win, then the only thing that changes is the order they finish in. OK State can claim a #1 seed, I think, if they win and the others lose.

That said, they are a nest of BCS vermin, so yeah, anything goes, I guess.


Make you feel at all like FSU? :face:

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Re: Bracketology

Post by decrink on Sun Nov 07, 2010 8:15 am

My pessimistic sides says they will probably do something regional and put Stanford as the #1 west seed and UP #2. Then we will travel to Stanford down the road...
I'm past getting my hopes up on these matters.

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Re: Bracketology

Post by Trenchcoat Wally on Sun Nov 07, 2010 4:26 pm

My optimistic side says that there will be a total transformation withing the selection committee. There will be an enormous computer glitch. A secret meeting will be held and the Pilots will be selected as #1 seed. The committee will discuss how Merlo Field draws thousands of fans and thousands of dollars more in ticket sales, has a great soccer atmosphere with drums, kettle corn and now shaved ice! With the extra profits from the sold out games, each committee member will fly to Portland and stay at the luxurious Benson hotel, be transported to Merlo via chauffeured town car to enjoy the highest quality NCAA soccer environment. The committee members will depart Portland with a better understanding of the game of soccer...... (this time change is making me delusional) -Trenchcoat-

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Re: Bracketology

Post by Geezaldinho on Sun Nov 07, 2010 4:45 pm

Trenchcoat Wally wrote:My optimistic side says that there will be a total transformation withing the selection committee. There will be an enormous computer glitch. A secret meeting will be held and the Pilots will be selected as #1 seed. The committee will discuss how Merlo Field draws thousands of fans and thousands of dollars more in ticket sales, has a great soccer atmosphere with drums, kettle corn and now shaved ice! With the extra profits from the sold out games, each committee member will fly to Portland and stay at the luxurious Benson hotel, be transported to Merlo via chauffeured town car to enjoy the highest quality NCAA soccer environment. The committee members will depart Portland with a better understanding of the game of soccer...... (this time change is making me delusional) -Trenchcoat-

that's next year, when we will play one game the first weekend and two the second. this year they are still willing to lose 50K in ticket sales in order to save money.Rolling Eyes

The idea seems to have finally dawned on those folk in Indianapolis that they might actually make a little money here and there if they just let the games happen where people actually watch the sport. no more playing games in some windy tilted corn field in front of 50 folks to "save money" instead of a packed stadium.

I'll believe it when it actually happens. It has occurred to me that while that's what they said they would do in the proposal to be voted on, we actually haven't seen the piece of legislation they actually passed.

So until then, the NCAA is still a nest of BCS vermin.


We may be OK though, OSU lost today and probably tanked their seed chances down to 29. I don't think anyone quite that low has gotten a seed. UW is right on the Bubble at 47. Both games (if they happen) will be tough with local rivals, but at least fans of both teams will get to see them.

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Re: Bracketology

Post by Geezaldinho on Sun Nov 07, 2010 4:58 pm

MD tied today (lost the shootout to wake)
OK st. Tied also (they won their shootout with OK)
and Florida will probably be the fourth #1 by beating South Carolina.

that actually widened the lead between us and the pack. We should be good..

If not, shoot me.

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Re: Bracketology

Post by gnarly on Sun Nov 07, 2010 6:54 pm

Any of the top 16 Adjusted RPI that might get left out like PSU did a few years ago? They were all the way down to a 9 I believe.

Are all the 47 RPI's and better in? I think that is about where the line is.

41 Denver
43 VT
44 PSU
45 Mich
47 UW




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Re: Bracketology

Post by PurplePrideTrumpet on Sun Nov 07, 2010 7:04 pm

Geezaldinho wrote:MD tied today (lost the shootout to wake)
Did Anson approve their lineup today? Rolling Eyes



Beating a Dead Horse Not ready to let it go yet...

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Re: Bracketology

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Sun Nov 07, 2010 7:17 pm

gnarly wrote:Any of the top 16 Adjusted RPI that might get left out like PSU did a few years ago? They were all the way down to a 9 I believe.

Are all the 47 RPI's and better in? I think that is about where the line is.

41 Denver
43 VT
44 PSU
45 Mich
47 UW

I can't comment on which of the top 16 might get left out of the seeds yet, but it wouldn't be unusual if a couple got left out.

In terms of the teams that are "in," I'm predicting that all teams ranked 38 or better by the Adjusted RPI are "in." The teams on the "bubble" are:

Connecticut
San Diego
Virginia Tech
Denver
Penn State
Michigan
Washington
Georgia
Miami FL
Toledo
Texas Tech
SMU
Auburn
Nebraska
Loyola Marymount

This will be the toughest bracket ever. There will be very few easy games for anyone!

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Re: Bracketology

Post by gnarly on Sun Nov 07, 2010 7:49 pm

I think the following teams above 38 are auto bids for their conf:

BU 46 Am E.
Merceer 164 Atl sun
Sac St 199 Big Sky
HP 214 Big South
LB St 42 Big West
JMU 50 Colonial
Mil 57 Horizon
Penn 76 Ivy
Siena 58 Met Atl
CMU 137 Mid Am
Creighton 85 MVC
St Francis 86 NE
Morehead St 132 OVC
Lehigh 83, Patriot
UTSA 130 Southland
Jackson St 284 SWAC
ND St 156 Summit
M. Tenn 109 Sunbelt
Fresno St 118 WAC

38 + 19 = 57. So if my math is correct 7 of bubble get in.


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Re: Bracketology

Post by gnarly on Sun Nov 07, 2010 8:08 pm

Here is one draft bracket.

Biggest challenges are: what to do in LA with UC-Irv 19, LB St 42, UCLA 21, USC 28, Fresno St 118, maybe SD 40 or LMU 56; what to do with all the mid Atlantic area seeds, and what do to with mountain states.

Assumming top RPI teams get the seeds:

Pod 1: Stanford vs Sac St 199, SCU 26 vs LB St 42

Pod 2: UNC vs. HP 214, S. Carolina vs. Mich 45.

Pod 3: UP vs. Fresno St 118, Texas 35 vs. UW 47

Pod 4: FL vs Mercer 164, S. FL 32 vs. Cal 37

Pod 5: MD vs. St Fr 86, GT 20 vs JMU 50

Pod 6: Ok St vs Jackson St 284, NM 34 vs Creighton 85

Pod 7: BC vs Siena 58, Uconn 39 vs BU 46

Pod 8 Vir vs Lehigh 83, Hostra 17 vs Penn St 44

Pod 9 ND vs CMU 137, Wis 23 vs Mid Tenn 109

Pod 10 MQ vs Mill 57, OR St 29 vs Minn 38

Pod 11 WV vs. Morehead St, Ill 36 vs VT 43

Pod 12: OH St vs ND St 156, Dayton 24 vs Duke 30

Pod 13: FSU vs Penn 76, UCF 18 vs OK 27

Pod 14 A&M vs. UTSA 130, UCLA 21 vs. Memphis 22

Pod 15 WF shpped to LA vs SD 40, UC-Irv 19 vs USC 28.

Pod 16: UNC GR Shipped to Utah where BYU hosts vs Denver 41, ASU 25 vs BYU 31.

I'll get a new version when UPSF gets us the teams he thinks will make it out of the bubble.


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Re: Bracketology

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Sun Nov 07, 2010 11:28 pm

Sorry, but I don't think I'll make it by the time they announce the bracket. It's a long a complicated process, which speaks well for the Women's Soccer Committee and NCAA staff. I'll try, but I doubt I'll get there.

I like what you've done.

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Re: Bracketology

Post by gnarly on Mon Nov 08, 2010 6:49 am

No worries. I was thankful for a extra hour of sleep this weekend after doing wood cutting so I didn't want to stay up and work longer on it.

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Re: Bracketology

Post by gnarly on Mon Nov 08, 2010 6:27 pm

Hardly worth posting a bracket with only 1 in 16 pods correct (Stanford)

UP pod got UW correct but anyone's guess who gets shipped in.

LA had too many teams and having WF come in was correct with SD and UC-Irv.

UCF getting bumped from 18 to seed, brings them out west since not enough teams in FL.

Had 3 correct in BC pod. I thought they would put Hofstra (17 rpi) down with a lower seed.

We started the year with lots of Texas area teams but many of those area teams dropped out, so A&M heads to Minn.

Got 3 in FL correct and even Cal there for the 4th time in 5 years.

I guess High Point gave UNC too much of a scare last year so they moved them up to play MD instead.

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