U of O ranked #1 in the AP in football...true or flukey?

by onetouchfutbol on Mon Oct 18, 2010 11:00 am

Well, I can't hide that I'm more of an OSU and a Husky fan. But, seriously, when was the last time the Ducks shut out a ranked team and held them to zero points? Stanford scored 31 on them and beat them a year ago. I expect this team to go down without an undefeated Pac-10 season.

What do you think? Do you drink the Kool Aid?

Most of the time, I'm just thankful that UP doesn't have a football team, and we don't have to deal with boosters paying for student athletes to play the X-Box when they are in their locker rooms. Twisted Evil

by **Stonehouse** on Mon Oct 18, 2010 11:26 am

onetouchfutbol wrote:But, seriously, when was the last time the Ducks shut out a ranked team and held them to zero points?

When is the last time any ranked team has been shutout? That's a very rare occurance.

Anyway, are the Ducks the true number one team in the country? Hard to say, and I would agree that their strength of schedule hasn't been great. Still, they did handle a very good Stanford team (doesn't matter if Stanford scored 31 when Oregon scores in the 50s) and they haven't had any close games (unlike Oklahoma, Boise State, TCU, LSU, etc.), so I can understand why the pollsters have them there for now.

I'm not beholden to either OSU or UO (I tend to root for both because it's nice to see the state do well, though I will admit to pulling for OSU in last year's Civil War) and I definitely think some Duck fans can be insufferable, but I think it's pretty fun to have a team from Oregon be the #1 team in the country. I'm old enough where I can remember Oregon and Oregon State being total laughingstocks.

by blacksheep on Mon Oct 18, 2010 1:49 pm

onetouchfutbol wrote: Do you drink the Kool Aid?

GO DUCKS!!!

by blacksheep on Tue Oct 19, 2010 10:56 am

Now for the more serious answer. Yes, I think the Duck have earned the number one spot in the county. They have the top offense in the country and a defense that has only allowed 13 points in the second half all season, and 0 (Zero!!!) points in the forth quarter. Will they run the table? I don't know, but the have a good chance. That written, Alabama was a legitimate No. 1 and lost.

As for BCS Rankings . . . Did anyone notice Peter Wolfe's computer rankings? Oregon 11 Stanford 9? How does that happen? His computer apparently didn't watch that game.

by **Stonehouse** on Tue Oct 19, 2010 11:01 am

blacksheep wrote:As for BCS Rankings . . . Did anyone notice Peter Wolfe's computer rankings? Oregon 11 Stanford 9? How does that happen? His computer apparently didn't watch that game.

Very, very strange.

I think the New Mexico and Portland State games must really be acting as millstones around Oregon's neck right now when it comes to the computer rankings, because their average is markedly low in all of them.

Moral of the story for Oregon? SEC teams can get away with scheduling those types of games because of the ridiculous SOS within the SEC, but a Pac-10 team with national championship aspirations needs to play better teams than that.

by blacksheep on Tue Oct 19, 2010 11:41 am

Right now the Portland State game and New Mexico game account for 1/3 of Oregon's schedule. As the season progresses, the strength of schedule will even out for the Ducks and get worse for teams like BSU. The challenge of course is winning the games.

I just wonder why Peter Wolfe's computer would not put more emphasis on head to head competition than on strength of schedule.

I have been a big fan of Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings (and not just for college football)(his predictor rating, not the PC rating the BCS uses). He has Oregon at 1 and Stanford at 2, but his BCS rating has Oregon 2 and Stanford 5.

It all goes to show we shouldn't have a champion decided by some computer program that nobody understands.

by onetouchfutbol on Tue Oct 19, 2010 12:59 pm

I admit that they've been better than I could expect without Masoli at QB. I don't think that being ranked #1 this early in the season is an advantage for anyone, and at some time they'll have to beat a team with a better defense than they have to stay there. I guess the thing that always miffs me about the Ducks is that in bigger games like the game against Stanford they struggle when it comes to scoring defense. It seems like they've consistently done that over the years, and that's why I kind of expect them to fall at some point. And yes, the best UW and USC teams did have a few shutouts now and then over ranked teams... But, I admit they have a high powered running attack and have had one for many years. If they finnish at #1, they'll earn more respect from doubters like me...

Until then, I'll be thinking about the dog poop that Oregon fans threw on my cousin at the UW vs. Oregon game in Eugene...

by blacksheep on Tue Oct 19, 2010 2:00 pm

onetouchfutbol wrote:I guess the thing that always miffs me about the Ducks is that in bigger games like the game against Stanford they struggle when it comes to scoring defense. It seems like they've consistently done that over the years.

The major downside to running the type of offense the ducks run is that it puts the defense in a tough spot. They have to play more each game, with less rest. That makes it even more surprising that the ducks have held teams scoreless in the forth quarter. The other team's offense seems to get more fatigued than the Oregon defense.

Oregon is 16th in scoring defense and 15th in yards/play. Oregon seems willing to be 31st is total defense as long as teams don't score. The Ducks are number 1 in opponent red zone conversion.

Ok, I'll put the Kool-Aid down now Evil or Very Mad

by Rochin54 on Wed Oct 20, 2010 5:10 am

blacksheep wrote:
onetouchfutbol wrote:I guess the thing that always miffs me about the Ducks is that in bigger games like the game against Stanford they struggle when it comes to scoring defense. It seems like they've consistently done that over the years.

The major downside to running the type of offense the ducks run is that it puts the defense in a tough spot. They have to play more each game, with less rest. That makes it even more surprising that the ducks have held teams scoreless in the forth quarter. The other team's offense seems to get more fatigued than the Oregon defense.

Oregon is 16th in scoring defense and 15th in yards/play. Oregon seems willing to be 31st is total defense as long as teams don't score. The Ducks are number 1 in opponent red zone conversion.

Ok, I'll put the Kool-Aid down now

Booyah!!

Really though, at this point the whole number one thing doesn't matter, and I'm not sure if it only hurts the team that has it. It's too early, and everyone wants to knock off a number one.

That being said, I think the Ducks are deserving of the spot. In reality, there is not a team or two teams that are just better than everyone else this year. There are probably 4 or 5 teams that are top-flight teams, but they could get beat any given afternoon (or evening) by the next 20 or 30 teams. That's just how it is.

What makes me believe in the ducks is their speed. It's just crazy at so many positions. Pair that with the speed/tempo at which they play, and they just flat wear people out. Then they've got crazy depth at so many positions. Hard workers at a lot of positions. Leaders. I really think they've got what it takes.

Of course, going undefeated in the Pac 10 will not be easy. I wouldn't be surprised if they did it, and I wouldn't be surprised if they lost 1, or even 2 games. Personally, I think the civil war is going to be a heck of a game, and I think there are other tough games with Arizona (depending on Foles and/or their backup QB) and UW. We shall see.

by pilotram on Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:33 am

Rochin54 wrote:
Of course, going undefeated in the Pac 10 will not be easy.

Don't say that too loud, the east coast might hear you.

by blacksheep on Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:30 am

Rochin54 wrote:

Booyah!!

Really though, at this point the whole number one thing doesn't matter, and I'm not sure if it only hurts the team that has it. It's too early, and everyone wants to knock off a number one.

That being said, I think the Ducks are deserving of the spot. In reality, there is not a team or two teams that are just better than everyone else this year. There are probably 4 or 5 teams that are top-flight teams, but they could get beat any given afternoon (or evening) by the next 20 or 30 teams. That's just how it is.

What makes me believe in the ducks is their speed. It's just crazy at so many positions. Pair that with the speed/tempo at which they play, and they just flat wear people out. Then they've got crazy depth at so many positions. Hard workers at a lot of positions. Leaders. I really think they've got what it takes.

Of course, going undefeated in the Pac 10 will not be easy. I wouldn't be surprised if they did it, and I wouldn't be surprised if they lost 1, or even 2 games. Personally, I think the civil war is going to be a heck of a game, and I think there are other tough games with Arizona (depending on Foles and/or their backup QB) and UW. We shall see.

That's some good Kool-aid isn't it. Very Happy

Has ESPN found some second rate midwest game to force down your throat instead of the Duck game on Thursday?

by **DaTruRochin** on Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:36 am

I think I saw a programming note that it will be re-broadcast with a Spanish dubbed version of Rudy for educational purposes...

by onetouchfutbol on Wed Oct 20, 2010 11:17 am

Well, anyway, the bigger they are the harder, they fall. Enjoy the ranking while it lasts...just like being on the cover of Sports Illustrated a few years ago... Nothing would make Ducks fans more irked than seeing UW remove them from their ranking...

by Rochin54 on Wed Oct 20, 2010 11:45 am

onetouchfutbol wrote:Well, anyway, the bigger they are the harder, they fall. Enjoy the ranking while it lasts...just like being on the cover of Sports Illustrated a few years ago... Nothing would make Ducks fans more irked than seeing UW remove them from their ranking...

Haha. Indeed, that thought is no good. OSU and UW are not going to be pushovers, and both would love to be the ones that knocked Oregon out of the #1 slot.

Luckily, Oregon/UCLA is the only Thursday night game, or else I would again be purchasing gameplan to watch it. Although, with the advent of ESPN3 and our household entering the 21st century and getting internet at home, I've been able to watch a lot more.

by mattywizz on Wed Oct 20, 2010 12:34 pm

Rochin54 wrote:Luckily, Oregon/UCLA is the only Thursday night game,

Pretty sure Halladay and Lincecum will be going at each other again this Thursday. I'm sure that game promises much less scoring.

If I were the Ducks I would like my chances to run the table in a weak Pac-10 a lot more than in a loaded Big 10.

Oh, yes I did just go there!!

U of O ranked #1 in the AP in football...true or flukey?

U of O ranked #1 in the AP in football...true or flukey?

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