2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

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2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by gnarly on Sun Oct 10, 2010 10:21 pm

As the end of regular season is a month or so away interesting to think about who might host this year. Some teams host every year and we'll see a lot of that again this year.

By team or area:

UNC: Hosted every year since we went to 64 teams (that is all the farther I looked at the brackets.). Currently 3 on RPI. In their same area WF has hosted the last 4 years. They are 32 RPI so they need to pick it up if they expect to host 5 years in a row. Duke also hosted in 2008 but they are currently 39 rpi.

UCLA has hosted every year since 2001, and they may host again for So. CA area but they might not be the seed. They are currently 11. Their are enough teams likely to make the tourney there that someone will host in LA most likely. Non Pac 10 teams in the area in the hunt are LMU and SD from WCC, UC Irvine and LB st. Does USC move up enough to be seed, currenly 29.

Stanford. Both Stanford and SCU hosted last year. Likely only Stanford this year as they have the last 3 years. Stanford RPI 1, SCU 24. Currenly not many teams from Bay area, but extras from LA could come North.

In FL you could have both FL and FSU host this year(ranked 9 & 12 RPI). However, last year #3 seeds FL and UCF got shipped up to Ohio St and Wis. It will depend on how many teams like Miami, Jacksonville, Aub, Georgia, AL make the tourney. If UCF doesn't make a seed then they are a partner for either FL or FSU.

Great Lakes area: ND likely to host again like usual (RPI 4). Minn and Maquette in seeding postion at 13 and 10 RPI. Lots of teams in the GL area and you had ND, WIS, Ohio St, and Dayton all host last year. Possible other teams in the area that might make tourney are: Wis #25, Tol 34, Ill 28, Ohio St 19, Mil 56, Dayton 26.

NE: BC hosted the last 3 years and likely to host again at #5. Likely to join them Hofstra 20, BU 57, Long Is 77 and maybe Ivy league champ.

In Mid Atlantic: MD hosted last year and Vir year before. MD currently 15 and might host. Gt #16, Vir at 18 might move up and replace MD as seed in area, as might VT at 23. Those 3 all in ACC and one likely to host and others get shipped somewhere.

TX/LA area: What is new this year is number of teams from the area likely to make the tourney. Last year LSU hosted and A&M the 3 years before. My thinking is that we will have two from Big 12 hosting this year. All other Big 12 teams that make it are getting on a plane somewhere. OK St likely to host this year at 6 RPI. They went to LA in '07, Bay area last year, and to Rutgers in '08 so they deserve to stay home for a change. I think A&M will be other host even if they don't get a seed. Too many teams in the area. They are currenly 17. Other teams in Big 12 (Baylor 43, TT 22, and Texas 32 ) get shipped somewhere. Other teams in the hunt from this area are: SMU 30, Rice 47, Houston 57. Also SFA and Ark PB have top RPI in their conference so we'll see if they join the BBQ in Texas.

Utah/Col/AZ: Will BYU improve on 21 RPI and host? They hosted odd bracket in '08 with VT, BU, and USC #4 seed. All flew in to their place. What about ASU this year, might they host with 7 RPI and have partner in N. Az, NM currently on the bubble at 45. Also Denver or Utah Valley are possiblities in that area.

This brings us back to the Pacific NW and UP. We're likely to host as we did the last two years. UW our partner last year and WSU the year before. UW currenly 31 RPI. OSU has been moving up about 20 places the last week to 72. They have to beat some teams in PAC 10 other than UO and UA to move up. Idaho is another possbility from WCC or PSU wins their conf tourney to get bid from Big Sky. My ideal scenario is UW moves up and gets seeded or OSU makes the tourney and joins us as we take the lower ranked RPI team if both they two Pac 10 schools make the tourney. I'ld rather not play UW again this year and their brusing style of play, nor host their fans. Every game with them is too close for comfort. Other local partners might be Idaho from WCC or PSU if they win Big sky tourney. Other possiblity is that 3 teams fly in. In 2004 we hosted and Weber St, Col, and Utah joined us.

We'll see how it plays out the next 4 or 5 weeks...


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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Sun Oct 10, 2010 11:04 pm

gnarly, I love your work on this.

The NCAA will be issuing its next RPI report this coming Tuesday morning. I've developed some rules of thumb that may help you if you have time to update your work next week. They are rules I've developed based on experience during the 2007-2009 seasons. The rules are for using the second RPI report of the season, i.e., the one the NCAA will publish this coming Tuesday. They are for considering what teams might get seeds and what teams might get at large selections. They'll give you a good sense of the teams that might be in the tournament bracket, which might help you in figuring out host sites.

a. It is likely that the four #1 seeds will come from the teams ranked #1 through #9.

b. It is likely that all the seeds will come from the teams ranked #1 through #36.

c. The teams ranked #22 or better are highly likely to be in the Tournament. The teams ranked #23 or worse are all reasonable possibilities not to make the tournament.

d. The teams ranked #72 or better are reasonable possibilities to make the tournament. The teams ranked #72 or worse are highly unlikely to be in the Tournament. However, an outlier ranked #95 made the Tournament in the 2007-2009 period.

e. In other words, from c and d, the likely current bubble group for at large selections is the teams ranked #23 through #72. But, taking rare cases into account the group could be from #23 through #95.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by gnarly on Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:05 pm

thanks for all the work on rpi site. Sounds like NCAA is making predicting the bracket somewhat of a wild card. I'll take a look at the new sheets as we get closer to tourney time.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:12 pm

It's a wild card now. When we have the final end-of-season RPI (including the conference tournament games), I don't think it's that wild. I set up a system to apply the NCAA's criteria to the at large selections and seeding last year, and the system picked exactly the same at large teams as the Women's Soccer Committee. It didn't pick exactly the same seeds, but was very close. At the end of the regular season this year, I'm going to try to put out a tool that anyone interested can use to try to predict the bracket and seeds. The hard part will be that the games won't be completed until Sunday before bracket day, so I won't be able to post the tool until after that and people will have only over night and part way through Monday to use the tool and make their predictions.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by fan from afar on Tue Oct 12, 2010 6:14 am

Am I correct in assuming that we will end up a top 4 team if we win out, and therefore home for the quarter finals, especially since BC lost again last weekend? The top 4 were very close, but I assume BC has fallen a bit behind.

Also - If that happens, and BC ends up ranked number 5, the number 4 ranked team should draw BC in the quarters. Is that correct, or does geography enter into things for the quarters? Any of the top 8 teams would be tough in the quarters, but I would assume we would rather not be playing BC.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by SoreKnees on Tue Oct 12, 2010 9:24 am

If the past is a guide, it would seem that geography is important. We have played in California for the semi-finals in 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. In many, if not most, of those years we must have been the #5 team in the NCAA ranking, since many criteria and polls had us in the top 2-4. In some years, our opponent UCLA or Stanford was #1. Last year, Florida State was the surprise in getting a #1 seed, yet we did not draw their bracket as we seemingly would have if they were overall #4 and we #5.

Does it seem reasonable to guess, as of right now, that BC might get paired with Notre Dame? Might avoid UNC since they are the same conference.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:59 am

fan from afar wrote:Am I correct in assuming that we will end up a top 4 team if we win out, and therefore home for the quarter finals, especially since BC lost again last weekend? The top 4 were very close, but I assume BC has fallen a bit behind.

Also - If that happens, and BC ends up ranked number 5, the number 4 ranked team should draw BC in the quarters. Is that correct, or does geography enter into things for the quarters? Any of the top 8 teams would be tough in the quarters, but I would assume we would rather not be playing BC.

It's too early to be making assumptions about what will happen if we win out. It is true, however, that there is starting to be some separation between the top four teams (Stanford, Portland, Notre Dame, North Carolina) and the rest of the field. But, until we see how conference strength affects teams' RPIs, and how teams' non-conference opponents do over the balance of the season, we won't know for sure whether that's how it will transpire.

Regarding placement of seeds in the bracket, the NCAA at least publicly only selects four #1 seeds, four #2s, etc. I understand, however, that internally they may do more refined seeding for at least some of the "pods." I assume that the higher they get in the seeding, the more likely they are not to do refined seeding. Plus, it may well be true that some of the placement is geographically driven. It is not always possible, however, to avoid a team having to travel cross-country for the quarterfinals. For example, in 2007, there were 3 teams from the west, four from the east, plus one from the middle in the quarters. One of the east teams went to the middle (Duke v Notre Dame), still leaving the need for an east team and a west team to play each other. That game ended up being USC v West Virginia.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by gnarly on Wed Oct 20, 2010 11:01 pm

Trying to predict the bracket has a number of complicating factors, particularly when we start this early. However, it helps if you breakout the various conferences as follows:

First, the vast majority of conferences will only have one automatic bid and no at large ones no matter who wins the conference tourney. (BTW I think only PAC 10, Ivy, and WCC have no conf. tourney). Following into this category are (I show the top RPI in the conf and their current RPI): Am E. (BU-63), Atl Sun (Jacksonville-99), Big Sky (N. Az -117), Big S. (Chas So. 127), Horizon (Mil-56) Met Atl (Siena-65), Mid Am (Tol-46), MVC (Creighton 95), NE (Long Is 72), OVC (SIU Ed 143) Patriot (Lehigh 83), Southland (SFA 86), SWAC (Ark PB 247), Summit (SD st 124), and WAC (Idaho 76).

For most of these they are in a single geographic area and you could just pencil in the conference and put in the team after conf tourney is done. However, take the Big Sky last year, PSU won the reg season but was upset by N. AZ in the conf tourney. So, you don't always know who will be in a 350-400 mile radius.

Next you have the conferences where the top team is likely to get an at large bid based on RPI, but everyone else has an RPI too low. If the top team is upset you get two teams from this conference sometimes. Examples of these are: Atl 10 (Dayton 35), Big W. (UC-Irv 16), Colonial (Hofstra 15), and Southern (UNC-GR 25).

Last, you have the stronger conferences with 2 or more teams likely to get an invite. You have:

ACC: UNC 2, BC 5, Vir 7, FSU 12, MD 19, VT 28, WV 38, Duke 40, and Mi 48 who might make the tourney.

BIG 12 : Ok St 6, A&M 13, Tex 31, TT 32, Neb 36, Baylor 43.

Big E: ND 4, MQ 9, GT 24, WV 29, Lou 47, and Uconn 43.

Big 10: OSU 8, Minn 22, Ill 33, Wis 30, MSU 49 and Mich 50.

Conf USA: UCF 21, SMU 34, Memphis 41.

IVY: Columbia 47 and maybe Princeton

Mt W: NM 17 and BYU 26

Pac 10: Stan 1, ASU 11, UCLA 14, Cal 27, USC 23, OSU 37, and UW 39.

SEC: FL 10, SC 18, Geo 44,

WCC: UP 3, SC 20, SD 45 and maybe LMU 53.


So, what is likely to be different in the bracket for 2010 compared to last year?

Likely to be fewer ACC teams getting seeds this year. This will open it up for others.

Normally we see one seed in NE and one in Tex/OK area. I am predicting two in those areas this year.

For NE likely to be BC and Hofstra hosting as things sit today. Joining them will be BU, Columbia, Long Is, Siena, and maybe Uconn.

I think we will likley see both Ok St and A&M host this year. They partner with SMU, SFA, Ark PB and maybe Houston. Big 12 teams of Texas, TT, and Baylor likely get shipped out of the area.

Also new this year is a pod in AZ/NM area. Maybe NM could host with ASU, N Az, and TT coming over.

LA is currently up for grabs. Will UCLA string of hosting 9+ years in a row be broken? Will UC-Irv get the seed and USC joins them and UCLA gets on a plane somewhere? I hear USC has a field problem so maybe they don't host even if they get seed.

Bay area, likely Stan hosts joined by SC and maybe SD or LMU comes north. Cal is odd man out and will they go to FL again like they did in '09, '08, and '06 to join FSU or FL?

FLorida: Last year FL, FSU, and UCF all got seeds. Not likely for UCF this year. Only FSU hosted last year with other two shipped to GL area.

Great Lakes: Likely 4 hosts there with so many teams in the area. Could be ND, MQ, OSU to start.

Pacific NW: UP probably has lock on hosting with OSU and UW likely to make the tourney. I suspect we get the one with the worst RPI and the better one get's shipped someplace. Joining us might be Idaho.

Filling out our pod I think will be the likes of BYU, Denver, or maybe Texas or other Big 12 team. Texas came here in'08. Denver here in '09 and '03. BYU went to bay area last year.

For the UW/OSU team that gets shipped. UW went to A&M in '08, OSU went to Oh st in '09 and WSU went to MD in '09.

A lot of speculation at this point, but important games yet to be played. Feel free to make your own picks on who gets seeded and who joins the dance.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by gnarly on Wed Oct 20, 2010 11:11 pm

Anyone know if independent Seattle is tourney eligible? I see they are 49 on random finish sheet.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by Geezaldinho on Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:34 am

There was just a discussion of this on BS.

Both soccer teams at Seattle are fast tracked and are tournament eligible this year.

They just added Colorado to their schedule this weekend in hopes of getting their RPI up enough to be considered.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by purple haze on Fri Oct 22, 2010 5:37 pm

The fact that Gnarly thinks Columbia will be in the tournament is good news to me. That's my "other" team.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by slick on Fri Oct 22, 2010 9:59 pm

How about "conference champions only" .. make the regular season meaningful.......?

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:43 pm

slick wrote:How about "conference champions only" .. make the regular season meaningful.......?

Evil or Very Mad

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by gnarly on Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:17 pm

Traveling teams:

With a number of teams coming out of the top conferences likely that some of the lower teams from those conferences that make the tourney will be getting on a plane some where. Let's look at some of the possibilities by conference and region.

Pacific NW. Since both UW and OSU likely to make tourney this year one of them likely to travel. I expect we'll get the worst RPI team. OSU went to Ohio st last year, UW to A&M prior year. We probably need 1 team if Idaho joins us too.

Bay area: Likely Stan and partner SCU. They need two to come from somewhere. If Cal makes tourney they fly somewhere. They went to FL/FSU in'09, '08, and "06.

LA: This might be pod w/o seed from the area. UCLA, USC, and UC-Irv just out of seeding position. Maybe some like UCF comes out if they get seed. SD likely join this pod if they make tourney. USC or UCLA likely to travel.

NM/AZ: Likely a pod here for a change. Will ASU stay in seeding position? You might have ASU, NM, TT and N. Az from the area.

Mt states: Likely BYU and Denver come west to fill out Pacific NE pod, LA pod, or Bay area pod.

Texas/OK. With Big 12 teams of Ok St and A&M likely hosting. They get joined by likes of SMU, SFA, Ark PB and maybe a Creighton. That leaves Texas, Neb, and TT likely to travel. Texas came here a couple years ago. If TT goes to NM/AZ then Neb could come west too or go to Great Lakes area.

In Great Lakes ND, Ohio St, and MQ likely to host and maybe someone like
Dayton did last year. There might be room for some of Wis, Minn, Ill or Mich but someone probably travels.

NE: Probably BC and Hofstra host. Likes of Long Is, Siena, Columbia, BU join. Have a spot or two to fill. Maybe someone like VT or Pac 10 team.

FLorida: Expect FL and FSU to host. Joining them are maybe Miami which heads to SEC-FL. Jacksonville goes either place, probably to the one who gets higher seed (FL right now). Aub or Georgia goes to ACC-FSU. Maybe S. Fl from Big E joins. Cal to FL again?

UNC fills it pod with locals of UNC-GR, S. Caro, maybe a Memphis. Duke and WF travel somewhere. Could be NE, GL or out west.

In mid Atlantic likely MD and Vir host. You have partners GT and WV in the area. VT goes somewhere.

Still big games to be played in reg season in these conferences with multiple at large bids.

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2010 Division I Women's Soccer Championship

Post by Psychotic on Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:44 pm

What are the probability that Portland host as follows:

First/Second Rounds {16}: Portland - November 12 & 14, 2010

Third Round {8}: Portland - November 19, 20, or 21, 2010

Quarterfinals {4}: Portland- November 26, 27, or 28, 2010

Friday, December 3 Semifinals, Cary, N.C., WakeMed Soccer Park

Sunday, December 5 Championship, Cary, N.C., WakeMed Soccer Park

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by Geezaldinho on Tue Oct 26, 2010 11:41 am

Psychotic wrote:What are the probability that Portland host as follows:

First/Second Rounds {16}: Portland - November 12 & 14, 2010

Third Round {8}: Portland - November 19, 20, or 21, 2010

Quarterfinals {4}: Portland- November 26, 27, or 28, 2010

Friday, December 3 Semifinals, Cary, N.C., WakeMed Soccer Park

Sunday, December 5 Championship, Cary, N.C., WakeMed Soccer Park

Very good Very Happy

Though it they send BYU this way, the first dates may be off by a day.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by PurplePrideTrumpet on Tue Oct 26, 2010 12:12 pm

I got a letter from the ticket office. Based on that I would put the probability of Nov. 12, 14, 20, and 26 as pretty high if we get a 1 seed. Wink

Don't forget that PSU is in second place in the Big Sky. If they win their conference tournament there's our hosting partner.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by gnarly on Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:22 pm

Looking at the seeds from the last few years:

2009: 1: Stanford, UCLA, UNC, FSU; 2: BC, UP, S. Car, ND,: 3: UCF, VT, WF, FL; 4: SCU, Penn St, MD, and LSU.

2008: 1:ND, Stanford, UCLA, UNC; 2: FSU, UP, Vir, FL; 3: BC, WF, Duke, A&M; 4: Col, Ok st, USC, Mizz.

2007: 1: UNC, Stanford, Penn St, UCLA; 2: Pur, A&M, USC, UP: 3: Geo, FSU, FL, Tenn; 4: ND, WF, WV, Vir.

2006: 1: UNC, Texas, SCU, ND; 2: A&M, UCLA, FSU, Penn St; 3: WF, FL, Ill, Rut; 4: Tenn, Utah, Ok St, Col.

2005: 1: Penn St, UP, UCLA, UNC; 2: SCU, ND, Vir, FSU; 3: Uconn, Duke, CS-Ful, Cal; 4: A&M, BYU, MQ, Pep

2004:1: UNC, 2: Penn St, 3: Vir, 4: ND, 5 UP, 6 OH St, 7 Princeton, 8 Kan, 9 A&M, 10 FL, 11 Tenn, 12 Texas, 13 AZ, 14 UCLA, 15 UW, 16 SCU

2003: 1 UNC, 2 ND, 3 FL, 4 UCLA, 5 Penn St, 6 WV, 7 Vir, 8 UP, 9 SCU, 10 Col, 11 FSU, 12 Duke, 13 Kan, 14 Tenn, 15 BC, 16 Ill.

2002 (only 8 seeds) 1 Stanford, 2 UNC, 3 Pep, 4 Uconn, 5 WV, 6 SCU, 7 UCLA, 8 UP

2001 (only 8 seeds) 1 UNC, 2 SCU, 3 UCLA, 4 UP, 5 Stan, 6 FL, 7 ND, 8 Uconn.

This year two of last years seeds likely not to even make the tourney (LSU and Penn St) and 6 others may not get a seed ( SCU, UCF, VT, UCLA, WF, S. Car) More turnover than usual.


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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by Stonehouse on Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:09 pm

Seeing us being unseeded in 2006 still makes my blood boil.

We had three losses that year - UNC and SCU (both #1 seeds) and to FSU (#2 seed). Two of those losses were on the road.

We were forced to play four consecutive playoff games on the road, beating BYU and Utah in Salt Lake City (really, how on earth was Utah seeded ahead of us?) and then Texas in Austin before losing to UCLA in LA on an absolutely bogus PK call.

Grr... I still get upset thinking about that season.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by eProf on Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:31 pm

Stonehouse wrote:Seeing us being unseeded in 2006 still makes my blood boil.

We had three losses that year - UNC and SCU (both #1 seeds) and to FSU (#2 seed). Two of those losses were on the road.

We were forced to play four consecutive playoff games on the road, beating BYU and Utah in Salt Lake City (really, how on earth was Utah seeded ahead of us?) and then Texas in Austin before losing to UCLA in LA on an absolutely bogus PK call.

Grr... I still get upset thinking about that season.
My take on that is that the committee was tired of being lambasted for the numerous times times that we were seeded and shipped, so they decided that they could solve the problem by de-seeding us.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by eProf on Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:57 pm

TopDrawerSoccer.com has a projection for the field of 64 at http://www.topdrawersoccer.com/college-soccer/college-soccer-tournament-ranking/women.

I know I'm getting way ahead of myself, but if we assume that their seedings are pan out, we have four seeds in the west:
  • 1. Stanford
  • 2. Portland
  • 8. Oregon State
  • 14. Santa Clara
and 13 other western teams:

  • 19. USC
  • 20. BYU
  • 22. Denver
  • 23. UC Irvine
  • 25. UCLA
  • 26. California
  • 27. Washington
  • 28. New Mexico
  • 41. San Diego
  • 43. Arizona State
  • 49. Long Beach State
  • 54. Northern Arizona
  • 55. Utah State
I believe that this would lead to:
  • Washington being our pod-partner.
  • OSU being seeded and shipped (no non-conference teams anywhere close). Perhaps sent to SoCal. Beaver fans might want to start cheering for Portland State.
  • Stanford getting UCI or Long Beach State as a pod-partner. (I think they're within the distance limit.)
  • Santa Clara getting Cal as a pod-partner.
  • All other Pac-10 schools (USC, UCLA, ASU) being sent east, since the west-coast sites would already each have a Pac-10 team.
The Pilots would presumably be bracketed to play Boston College (7 in their seeding) in the quarterfinals.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by Geezaldinho on Wed Oct 27, 2010 12:24 am

eProf wrote:TopDrawerSoccer.com has a projection for the field of 64 at http://www.topdrawersoccer.com/college-soccer/college-soccer-tournament-ranking/women.

I know I'm getting way ahead of myself, but if we assume that their seedings are pan out, we have four seeds in the west:


i wouldn't take much stock in Topdrawers seedings. He is a one man show who doesn't seem particularly taken with RPI and automatic qualifiers, and he has shown he doesn't know the West well. Two years ago he picked USC to win it all.

He's also the fellow who downgraded UP to the #2 slot in 2005 for tieing a game late in the season, then didn't reciprocate with Penn State when they did the same thing the next week. (then he came on this forum with a statement that he "had us #1 all the way")

Huge mistake... HUGE.

In this particular case, though, he might even be giving BC too low a seeding. it is possible right now for BC to get anywhere from a 4 seed on down to realistically #10 or so, depending on what they and UNC do in their tournament and what is left of the season. I have them pegged at #6 or so on a hunch (same method he uses)


If they are #8 though. they get a rematch with Stanford at Stanford. I like the symmetry of that.


I'm still holding out for PSU to get the Big Sky, though, instead of N Arizona. Then OSU and we both get to stay home.(if UW indeed makes the cut)

Heck, the NCAA would love that. they could just keep shoveling PAC10 teams at us all the way to the CC.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by dwm on Wed Oct 27, 2010 12:54 pm

Oregon State may be the 8th best team (coaches' poll has raised them to #15, well above their RPI) but I suspect it's close to mathematically impossible for them to reach #8 in ARPI. Even beating Arizona State this Friday would barely help them catch up with Arizona State in RPI, since each will pick up the other's win-loss record.

BC and UCLA have each lost 4 of their last 6, as if each of them were dealing with either a lot of injuries or a voodoo curse. BC was clearly a great team in the first half of the season, but it may be tough for them to pull out of their nose-dive. I hope they do.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by gnarly on Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:41 pm

Let's see how this is playing out by conference. I'll go in alphabetical order and cover the conferences which are likely to get multiple bids first. # are current adjusted RPI.

ACC: UNC 3, BC 4, MD7, Vir 8, FSU 12 likely to host first weekend. WF 25, Duke 28, VT 42, and MI 49 may make the tourney with at large bid. MI likely to go to FL if they get in. The rest either go to second NE pod or Ohio St pod or possible WV pod but we might have one go Texas or FL way or out West somewhere.

BIG 12: A&M 11 and Ok St 6 likely to host first rounds. Texas 30 and OK 40 likely make it, but TT 53 and Neb 51 on bubble. Extras likely to come West like Texas did in '08 and Ok St did in '07.

Big East: MQ 9 and ND 10 likely to host. WV at 17 has chance of hosting. If they do, they pull over one of ACC extras. GT 21 likely goes to VIR or MD. Uconn 36 heads to BC. S. FL 38 off to FL or FSU pod.

Big 10: OSU at 13 is seeding position. Wis 19 or Minn 34 likely to MQ pod. Ill 31 or Mich 33 might be at ND pod. PSU on bubble at 52 but still in position to make auto bid. If they do then they join MD or VIR or second NE pod. Extras go ?

Conf USA: UCF 22 joins FSU or FL pod. Memphis 37, maybe to OK st. SMU 50 joins A&M or Ok St pod if they get in.

Mt West: NM 29 likely goes to OK St or A&M pod. BYU 41 probably comes West to LA, Bay area, or Portland.

Pac 10. Stan 1 hosts. USC 15 and OSU 16 on the seeding bubble. Depends on games this weekend. If only one makes it as seed, I think OSU gets the nod with win in reg season game. If both make it maybe USC stays in LA at UC-Irv or LMU because of their field size. I don't think OSU will host in Corvallis. Maybe they do a pod like a few years ago where USC was seed, BYU hosted, VT and BU flew in. UCLA 23, ASU 24, and Cal 45 getting on a plane somewhere. Cal has history of heading to FL. ASU maybe A&M or Ok St. UCLA ?

SEC: FL 5 likely to host. S. Carolina 27 likely going to UNC. Georgia 47 likely to FSU.

WCC: UP 2 hosts joined by UW. SCU 18 chance of seed. If not, probably go to Stanford. SD 44 and LMU 48 one in LA pod, other to Bay area maybe.

You have several conferences where top RPI teams probably makes tourney even if they lose conf tourney. If they do, then 2 teams from that conference.

Am East: BU 41 goes to Hostra or more likely BC. Other finalist is ME 232.

Atl 10: Dayton 30, but Charlotte 74 is top seed.

Atl Sun: Likely joins FL or FSU pod.

BIg Sky: Depends.

Big South: Likely to UNC pod.

Big West: UC-IRV or LB St join LA pod.

Colonial: Hostra 14 likely to host in NE.

Horizon: To MQ or ND pod.

Metro Atl: Hofstra pod likely.

Mid America: ND or Ohio St pod.

MVC: Maybe Ok St.

NE: Hofstra or BC pod.

OVC: Vir, MD, VT pod.

Patriot: MD or Vir.

Southern: UNC-GR 26 to UNC.

Southland: A&M or Ok St.

SWAC: Ok St or A&M.

Summit: ND or MQ.

Sunbelt: Depends. If Denver, then out West, but could host with OSU as seed, BYU joins plus 1 more.

WAC: Likely out West. If SJ St then Bay area. Idaho was eliminated from their tourney so one less possible partner for UP. BSU still in though.

We'll know much more after tomorrows games. Still a real jigzaw puzzle at this point.

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Re: 2010 Host sites for rounds 1 & 2

Post by purple haze on Fri Nov 05, 2010 8:39 pm

OMG, gnarly, you are deep into this. Much praise to you.

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