2009 Bracket

If my Cougars come up with a win against UCLA, this will be a lot easier

dwm wrote:FSU just played Duke in the ACC tournament, and tomorrow they play VTech. Those two teams have 8-8-4 and 14-6-0 records, which should drop FSU well below UCLA in RPI, making it hard to justify a #1 seed for FSU, unless they beat NC. Even if they do beat NC, I don't know if they'll be above them in RPI. But the outrage would be just too flagrant if NC got a #1 seed and FSU did not after beating them twice. That fear-of-outrage factor is the only way I can imagine them getting a #1.

UCLA's RPI will rise this weekend if they win, because both Washington teams are strong enough to enhance UCLA on both Element 2 and Element 3.

I'm still a little worried that UCLA could rise enough to come out on top of us. We've suffered worse ripoffs than that, in the past. UPSF's calculation of adjusted RPI had us above UCLA after last weekend by only .0061, and that margin will shrink considerably if we both win out. So I sure hope one of the Washington teams at least ties them.

They'd be a fun opponent to get here, in the quarters, though the usual bracket fairness logic should give us Boston or Notre Dame. What the heck, any of them would be fun to watch in the quarters.

All through the season I've been thinking about how predictable Div I women's soccer games outcomes are, compared to men's pro or national teams. These teams just aren't all that closely matched. However, remembering past years' tournaments, that all changes when you get to the quarterfinals and beyond: most matchups could go either way.

Two things to consider:

1) in relation to UCLA, if we win Friday, we will have an advantage in head-to-head competitions (they tied USD), even if their RPI ends up higher, that will be a basis for us to be seeded higher (happened last year with ND) or at least take the comparison to the secondary criteria, where they have a loss in the last 8 games. We will be perfect. And that's if UCLA wins both games (not a given).


As a rough guide, at this point in the season the front runners have been rising .002 -.003 for a win, and dropping about .01 for a loss. some wins are garnering nothing.


2) for FSU to be seeded higher than UNC, they also have to be seeded higher than us, and I don't think they will have that basis. I also don't think there is a basis for UNC to be seeded lower than us. UNC's RPI will still be higher and we have no linkage that separates us (we are 1-1 in common opponents) As you point out, FSU's RPI will stay about he same or perhaps drop a little. If there was such an advantage for us v UNC other than RPI, we could jump them or it would go to secondary criteria, and UNC has a half gazzilion losses in its last 8 games (OK , 3)

Damn TAMU game

So we are protecting UNC. How do you feel about that?

Actually, this is why I was quizzing UPSF today about secondary criteria and if they have ever been used to trump RPI (the answer is not that he's seen).

All the seating at the Aggie Soccer stadium is one price and once inside the gate it's first come, first serve on the best seats. At least it was in 2005.

If my Cougars come up with a win against UCLA, this will be a lot easier.

The Cougs almost took down the mighty Cardinal...leading until late in the game and then losing in OT. Let's hope that they can finish the job against the Bruins on Sunday.

Poopdeck Pappy wrote:

If my Cougars come up with a win against UCLA, this will be a lot easier.

The Cougs almost took down the mighty Cardinal...leading until late in the game and then losing in OT. Let's hope that they can finish the job against the Bruins on Sunday.

Don't count on it. Other than Lang (ACL) UCLA finally has all of its players back (suspensions). Plus, they won't have to put up with the conditons that they faced in Seattle, Fri night.

chiefer wrote:

Poopdeck Pappy wrote:

If my Cougars come up with a win against UCLA, this will be a lot easier.

The Cougs almost took down the mighty Cardinal...leading until late in the game and then losing in OT. Let's hope that they can finish the job against the Bruins on Sunday.

Don't count on it. Other than Lang (ACL) UCLA finally has all of its players back (suspensions). Plus, they won't have to put up with the conditons that they faced in Seattle, Fri night.

Yeah, but they're playing the best Pac-10 team in Washington!

Ooops, UCLA 2-0 over the Cougs

Darn it anyway.

And Oregon goes down to ASU, leaving them at 9-10-1 and officially out of the running.

Saw this from NCAA.com Division I Women's Soccer Blog:

November 3, 2009
A Message from the Chair

The pace is beginning to pick up for me and all of the national committee members as we prepare for selection weekend for the 2009 NCAA Division I Women's Soccer Championship. Our committee has been busy since September working with our respective regional committees to rank the top 10 teams in each region.

We have been meeting by teleconference every two weeks to update each other on how things are shaping up in the various regions - expanded this year to 8 as compared to six in previous years. The Pacific, South and Southeast regions have all looked very strong so far. It will be interesting to see any possible changes when we hold our last national committee call on November 5 before reporting to Indianapolis for selection weekend on November 7.

This time of year, conference tournaments play a major role in the selection process. With 64 bids to the women's championship available and 30 of those being held for automatic qualifying conferences, that leaves only 34 "at-large" bids. Bubble teams across the country will all be rooting for league favorites in these tournaments to maximize the number of at-large berths. Upsets in conference tournaments often decrease the number of available at-large berths when a team that would probably not have received a tournament bid wins their respective conference tournament and the accompanying automatic bid. Those same bubble teams can also use their conference tournament to improve their profile. Just last year, Penn State winning the Big Ten Tournament and Missouri winning the Big 12 Tournament had a positive impact on their selection and seeding.

When the committee does get behind closed doors in Indianapolis, the selection and seeding of teams for the championship will be driven by three primary criteria. The first is the team's RPI - which consists of their winning percentage and their strength of schedule, the second is their head-to-head results against other teams being considered for selection, and third is a comparison with other teams under consideration of their results against common opponents. The hardest call for the committee is in comparing teams with very similar profiles, but no head-to-head results and no common opponents. That is when we often have to turn to our secondary selection/seeding criteria which includes results against teams already selected for the tournament and late season performance (last 8 games).

We're looking forward to an exciting week of women's soccer as the NCAA Championship field begins taking shape, and the committee gets ready for the unveiling of the 64-team bracket on Monday, November 9 (8 p.m. ET, ESPNews).

Paul Bradshaw
Division I Women's Soccer Championship Committee Chair
Baylor Associate AD / Internal Affairs

Here is a possible bracket for this year where I have picked 16 pods of 4 teams.

I used the top 16 as my seeds from UPSF latest update. Committee will likely mess with that.

BC, Uconn, BU and Harvard

VT, MSU,Davidson, Georgia

PSU, MD, Colgate, Vill

UNC, HP, Unc-Wil, Miss

FSU, Aub, Kenn St, St Johns

FL shipped to Marq with Wis, and Mil (how mean for the committee to send them to the cold)

UCF shipped to Loyola, with Monmouth, and Or st.

S. Carolina shipped to Memphis joining Murray st, and Vir

LSU, SE LA, Ark PB, and USC.

Ohio St, WSU, IUPUI, ILL ST

ND, C mich, Dayton, and Pur

In the west:

SCU, Cal, Ok St, Minn

UCLA, SD st, SD, and UC SB

two surprises:

Stanford shipped to BYU with Boise St, and N. AZ

U of P, UW, Den, and A&M


Have fun making your own and comparing to the committee tomorrow!

gnarly wrote:
Stanford shipped to BYU with Boise St, and N. AZ

I think that the committee would try very hard to give #1 seeds home field during the first weekend, UCSB is about 300 miles from Stanford (and is not in their conference). So unless UCSB is a seed (highly unlikely with a 103-ranked RPI and an even win-loss record), I don't think that Stanford will be shipped.

For others of you who want to play the bracket guessing game, I've updated the tool I prepared containing nearly all the information the Women's Soccer Committee will be using. It's on the "Predicting the Bracket" page of the RPI website, in an Excel attachment at the bottom of the page. The name of the attachment is "Bracket Formation Data." You'll want to read the "Bonus Tool" explanation on the webpage, as a prelude to trying to use the tool.

I haven't paid attention to the conference tournament outcomes in years past, but I counted 16 upsets this year. Those conferences which will, most likely, receive multiple bids with an other than expected champion include the Big Ten (PSU), the Big 12 (Ok.St.), the SEC (SC) and the Mountain West (SDS).

Too bad for the pre-tournament champions who represent conferences that will most likely have just one bid and were replaced by the following: Big Sky (N. Ariz), Big South (High Point), Big West (UCSB) (but maybe Cal Poly may get lucky), CAA (UNC, Wilmington), Northeast (Monmouth), Ohio Valley (Murray St.), Southern (Davidson), Southland (SE Louisiana, SWAC (Prairie View), Summit (IUPUI) Sun Belt (Denver), WAC (Reno). Probably, all of these will be gone after the first round.

In reviewing the automatics and possible at larges my question to the Pilot Nation is, when you get your deserved #1 seed, who, other than the one of three Pac 10 teams that surround you, will be put in your pod? I see nobody within range. The closest team that I can find would be Reno (575 miles). Will they fly two other teams out to you or do you think you're going to have to go on the road for the first two rounds?