2009 Bracket

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2009 Bracket

Post by chiefer on Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:05 pm

In anticipation of the playoffs, I did a quick review of last year's bracket and did my own "guessing" as to who will make it this year. Without naming every team, here are my picks as to what conferences will have improved their overall numbers, who will lose and who will stay the same

Winners Losers Same
WCC (3) +1 Big 12 (Big Flop) (3) -3 Pac 10 (6)
Big East (6) +2 Big West (1) -1 ACC (Cool
Big Ten (5) +1 CAA (1) -2 SEC (6)
Conf USA (3) +1 Ivy (1) -1
Mountain West (2) +1
Atlantic 10 (2) +1 *
* assumes Dayton is at large

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by UPSoccerFanatic on Wed Nov 04, 2009 11:52 pm

I haven't gone through your list carefully, but the Pac 10 will have at least 7: Stanford, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon State, Washington, California, and USC. One or both of Arizona State and Oregon still are possibilities. Your ACC got goofed up, but they also will have at least 7.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by chiefer on Thu Nov 05, 2009 8:29 am

Sorry for how it got laid out but it got jumbled when sent. I have the ACC getting 8 teams as Duke being near the bottom, still qualifies with their overall record and, of course, we know that we have to have an abundance of ACC teams. I'm going to stick with 6 teams from the Pac 10 and I think that's still genrous. I don't think ASU or U of O have a chance. U of O presently doesn't qualify based upon their overall record (8-9-1 and they will probably, at the very best, split in Ariz. ASU is even, overall and they will most likely split but, come on, 1-7-1 in the Pac 10? That doesn't sit well, regardless of their present RPI.

The big travesty in my opinion will be if the Big 12 get more than 2 at large teams. I understand Missouri, A&M and Nebraska but not the rest. Historically, they have had @ 6 teams represented but that conference is horrible this year, overall. The problem will be where would the other 3 teams come from, so it will be interesting.

Lastly, what will really be interesting is who will the odd man be out for the #1 seed and where will they be placed in the bracket. Depending on the outcome of the ACC Tourn. specifically, if FSU or UNC is eliminated, one of those teams along with UCLA could find themselves fighting an uphill battle, assuming they make it to the Q finals. My guess is that, notwithstanding UNC's #3 seeding in their Tourn.. UNC will win the title. The question will, then, be is it FSU or UCLA as a #1 seed, assuming UCLA can win out in Wash, which might be tough vs. WSU. Anyway, I'll let the expert RPI people hash that out.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by Geezaldinho on Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:26 am

The # 1 seeds appear more settled than most of the comparisons.

Stanford is a #1 seed even if they lose to Cal, although a strict reading gives advantage to UP in that comparison should they lose, I don't know if that is enough to overcome the RPI difference, (although I believe it's not any different than the amount Notre Dame was "bumped up" last year.) Both teams beat all 7 other common opponents. At any rate, even if by chance they lose that comparison with UP, they are still a #1 seed. No one else has a chance at a favorable comparison, and they will have the highest RPI regardless the outcome of the CAL game.

If the comparison for a #1 seed is between UCLA and UP, That will be settled tomorrow night. There is no head to head this year, but the two teams had 9 common opponents. UP, if it wins Friday, will have beaten all of them. UCLA tied USD, so even if it wins out, won't have matched UP's record against common opponents. even if UP ties, I think UP's RPI will stay higher than UCLA's We have too many common opponents for much relative fluctuation.

UP and UNC also have the same record against common opponents (1-1) UP lost to TAMU, and UNC lost to Miami. UNC owns the higher RPI, and will probably maintain it even with a loss. They also had the #1 NCRPI. UNC will end up with 2 or 3 losses in its last 8 games if secondary criteria come into play, But I don't think they will.


UP and FSU have two common opponents, and both teams won both games. (Miami & WSU) RPI may settle the ordering of those two. So the outcome probably depends on them being ACC champs. If it went to secondary criteria, FSU has two losses in the last 8 games, and would have 3 if they aren't champs. UP's NCRPI rank was 5, FSU's was 3. The adjusted RPI appears to have a bigger spread then the URPI, and it's now in UP's favor.


UCF has no common opponents with UP, so no basis for passing UP based on common opponents, and with their 3 losses, and lower RPI, I don't see them as #1 seed contenders. They have no games left to bring their RPI up, although their NCRPI was #4.

Notre Dame and UP have one common opponent. ND lost to Santa Clara and UP won it's game with that team, so Notre Dame has no basis for a claim to leap over UP in the seeding. Even if UP loses to USD, the RPI gap is too much here also. Their NCRPI was 26


BC is only slightly lower than ND, but even if they win the ACC, I don't think they will rise enough in the RPI. Like all ACC teams, they played Miami, but since we beat them, they have no other basis to leapfrog us even if their RPI got close. Their NCRPI was 11, so they might leap over ND.

Everyone else has too many losses or too low an RPI.

Barring major upsets (even with some), the four #1 seeds are Stanford, UNC, UP, and either FSU or UCLA, depending on the outcomes of the 1 or 2 games each team has left. The seeding within those four is a bit up in the air.

For UP, that means beating USD. We could still be in contention for a #1 seed with a tie.


Cheifer thinks Oregon is out and Duke in, but that's far from settled. For Oregon, that will mean they have to get a win and a tie this weekend or they can't be considered. If they do that, they close to Duke in the RPI, though perhaps they need both wins. Their non-conference RPI is 20 to Duke's 59. That 8-0 romp against Alabama A&M earlier in the season and playing the Big South's Gardner-Webb probably cost Duke in that RPI race. It may boils down to a comparison with the rest of the tournament field and the last 8 games. Oregon certainly comes in second in that final comparison, Duke in the former. Since NCRPI is part of the primary criteria, that may be the difference.
I think the Blue Devils have become avid Sun Devils.

If they do start making comparisons to the tournament field, both teams may lose out. Missouri's RPI is close to them, for example, and is 13-5-3, Northeastern is 12-3-3 and also close in the RPI, as is Charlotte at 15-2-2.

If the committee views the field as lopsided they will find reasons to include those teams.


It's shaping up to be what it was at the start. Win your games.


Last edited by Geezaldinho on Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:59 am; edited 2 times in total

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by up7587 on Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:42 am

Geezaldinho wrote:It's shaping up to be what it was at the start. Win your games.

Reading all these detailed analyses, it seems that bromide applies to everyone except UNC. Suspect

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by Geezaldinho on Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:46 am

up7587 wrote:
Geezaldinho wrote:It's shaping up to be what it was at the start. Win your games.

Reading all these detailed analyses, it seems that bromide applies to everyone except UNC. Suspect

Actually, it did apply to them, too. Had they not beaten TAMU, we would have a clear basis to be seeded higher then they.

As it is, we don't have a basis to trump RPI in our comparison.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by chiefer on Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:58 am

Just to be clear, when I say #1 seed, I'm speaking of the (4) #1 seeds. I'm assuming Stanford and UP are locks. I understand there may be an underlying placement of those #1's from the real #1 through #4, like BB but for the sake of discussion, I was wondering who would or would not be seeded as a #1. Selfishly, I would love to see UNC get a #2 seeding and have them placed in "your" 16 team bracket and have them come to Portland for the Q finals. Wouldn't that be exciting? I know, you don't want that. If I were placing a bet, I think UCLA is going to get the #2 and be place in the Portland quadrent. If FSU gets a #1, they will be on the same side as Stanford and you get UNC in the semi's. Lot of speculation but we'll see on Monday.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by SoreKnees on Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:45 pm

If FSU and UCLA are the "bubble" #1 seeds, competitive fairness would suggest that they should be in the same quadrant. But travel cost would be lower for UCLA to come here for the quarterfinals assuming both get that far. I would think that they might avoid having UCLA and Stanford in the same quadrant and UNC and FSU in the same quadrant because they are in the same conferences. So if UCLA ends up with a #2, I'm betting they either go to FSU (for competitive fairness) or UP (for cost) in the quarterfinals. If FSU gets the #2, they would either have to come to the West Coast or go to UNC, so I'd bet on FSU @ UCLA.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by FSUfan on Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:55 pm

Wow, if FSU somehow wins the ACC and in doing so defeats UNC for a second time, having to defeat them a 3rd time before the College Cup would be brutal. For the record I do not think FSU wins the ACC.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by chiefer on Thu Nov 05, 2009 2:17 pm

FSUfan wrote:Wow, if FSU somehow wins the ACC and in doing so defeats UNC for a second time, having to defeat them a 3rd time before the College Cup would be brutal. For the record I do not think FSU wins the ACC.

I agree. I think (guessing ahead) that the definite #1's are Stanford, Portland & UNC, in that order. I still think, however, should UCLA win out their last two games, the NCAA, will not allow 3 #1's on the west coast. That's why I believe FSU will get a #1 seed, notwithstanding a potenial loss in the ACC tournament, unless the loss comes vs. VT in the semi-final game. So, Stanford get's as a #2? (I have no idea, could be one of several teams other than who I'm listing for the others) Portland get's UCLA (purley cost, maybe not fair from a ranking standpoint) UNC gets ND, and FSU gets Boston College ( can't be helped too many highly ranked ACC teams plus I'm guessing it's about the money. What do you think?

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by Geezaldinho on Thu Nov 05, 2009 2:47 pm

The #2 seeds look like they will all be on the East coast if UCLA is a #1.

Travel expenses won't be a lot different. I think they'll just pair the Highest #2 with the lowest #1, etc. That probably mens FSU at UCLA.


My guess is that if UCLA is the odd team out, they will come here. and the lowest #2 will go to Stanford.

I don't agree that the NCAA won't give the West coast 3 #1 seeds.
In 2001 they seeded the top 8. four of the first 5 were West Coast schools.

2001Tournament seeds: 1. North Carolina; 2. Santa Clara; 3. UCLA; 4. Portland; 5. Stanford; 6. Florida; 7. Notre Dame; 8. Connecticut.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by harryb on Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:04 pm

If they seed them the way they ought, it would be FSU @ UCLA, we would have a chance of getting ND or UCF out here, and BC would play Stanford or UNC.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by Geezaldinho on Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:20 pm

harryb wrote:If they seed them the way they ought, it would be FSU @ UCLA, we would have a chance of getting ND or UCF out here, and BC would play Stanford or UNC.

Assuming the RPI's stay the same, that's true, but the NCAA does have a history of sending people places to save money.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by Geezaldinho on Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:35 pm

Mark your calendars.


2009 NCAA® Women's
College Cup®

When: December 4 & 6, 2009
Where: Aggie Soccer Stadium in College Station, Texas
Selection Show: November 9th, 8pm ET on ESPNews
For tickets call: 888-99-AGGIE
Go to NCAA.com to find out more about the 2009 Women's College Cup!

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by dwm on Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:19 am

FSU just played Duke in the ACC tournament, and tomorrow they play VTech. Those two teams have 8-8-4 and 14-6-0 records, which should drop FSU well below UCLA in RPI, making it hard to justify a #1 seed for FSU, unless they beat NC. Even if they do beat NC, I don't know if they'll be above them in RPI. But the outrage would be just too flagrant if NC got a #1 seed and FSU did not after beating them twice. That fear-of-outrage factor is the only way I can imagine them getting a #1.

UCLA's RPI will rise this weekend if they win, because both Washington teams are strong enough to enhance UCLA on both Element 2 and Element 3.

I'm still a little worried that UCLA could rise enough to come out on top of us. We've suffered worse ripoffs than that, in the past. UPSF's calculation of adjusted RPI had us above UCLA after last weekend by only .0061, and that margin will shrink considerably if we both win out. So I sure hope one of the Washington teams at least ties them.

They'd be a fun opponent to get here, in the quarters, though the usual bracket fairness logic should give us Boston or Notre Dame. What the heck, any of them would be fun to watch in the quarters.

All through the season I've been thinking about how predictable Div I women's soccer games outcomes are, compared to men's pro or national teams. These teams just aren't all that closely matched. However, remembering past years' tournaments, that all changes when you get to the quarterfinals and beyond: most matchups could go either way.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by ShipstadPilot11 on Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:32 am

If my Cougars come up with a win against UCLA, this will be a lot easier Smile

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by Geezaldinho on Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:33 am

dwm wrote:FSU just played Duke in the ACC tournament, and tomorrow they play VTech. Those two teams have 8-8-4 and 14-6-0 records, which should drop FSU well below UCLA in RPI, making it hard to justify a #1 seed for FSU, unless they beat NC. Even if they do beat NC, I don't know if they'll be above them in RPI. But the outrage would be just too flagrant if NC got a #1 seed and FSU did not after beating them twice. That fear-of-outrage factor is the only way I can imagine them getting a #1.

UCLA's RPI will rise this weekend if they win, because both Washington teams are strong enough to enhance UCLA on both Element 2 and Element 3.

I'm still a little worried that UCLA could rise enough to come out on top of us. We've suffered worse ripoffs than that, in the past. UPSF's calculation of adjusted RPI had us above UCLA after last weekend by only .0061, and that margin will shrink considerably if we both win out. So I sure hope one of the Washington teams at least ties them.

They'd be a fun opponent to get here, in the quarters, though the usual bracket fairness logic should give us Boston or Notre Dame. What the heck, any of them would be fun to watch in the quarters.

All through the season I've been thinking about how predictable Div I women's soccer games outcomes are, compared to men's pro or national teams. These teams just aren't all that closely matched. However, remembering past years' tournaments, that all changes when you get to the quarterfinals and beyond: most matchups could go either way.

Two things to consider:

1) in relation to UCLA, if we win Friday, we will have an advantage in head-to-head competitions (they tied USD), even if their RPI ends up higher, that will be a basis for us to be seeded higher (happened last year with ND) or at least take the comparison to the secondary criteria, where they have a loss in the last 8 games. We will be perfect. And that's if UCLA wins both games (not a given).


As a rough guide, at this point in the season the front runners have been rising .002 -.003 for a win, and dropping about .01 for a loss. some wins are garnering nothing.


2) for FSU to be seeded higher than UNC, they also have to be seeded higher than us, and I don't think they will have that basis. I also don't think there is a basis for UNC to be seeded lower than us. UNC's RPI will still be higher and we have no linkage that separates us (we are 1-1 in common opponents) As you point out, FSU's RPI will stay about he same or perhaps drop a little. If there was such an advantage for us v UNC other than RPI, we could jump them or it would go to secondary criteria, and UNC has a half gazzilion losses in its last 8 games (OK , 3)

Damn TAMU game No

So we are protecting UNC. How do you feel about that?

Actually, this is why I was quizzing UPSF today about secondary criteria and if they have ever been used to trump RPI (the answer is not that he's seen).

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by A_Fan on Fri Nov 06, 2009 8:56 am

All the seating at the Aggie Soccer stadium is one price and once inside the gate it's first come, first serve on the best seats. At least it was in 2005.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by Poopdeck Pappy on Fri Nov 06, 2009 9:13 am

If my Cougars come up with a win against UCLA, this will be a lot easier.

The Cougs almost took down the mighty Cardinal...leading until late in the game and then losing in OT. Let's hope that they can finish the job against the Bruins on Sunday.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by chiefer on Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:18 pm

Poopdeck Pappy wrote:
If my Cougars come up with a win against UCLA, this will be a lot easier.

The Cougs almost took down the mighty Cardinal...leading until late in the game and then losing in OT. Let's hope that they can finish the job against the Bruins on Sunday.

Don't count on it. Other than Lang (ACL) UCLA finally has all of its players back (suspensions). Plus, they won't have to put up with the conditons that they faced in Seattle, Fri night.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by ShipstadPilot11 on Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:15 am

chiefer wrote:
Poopdeck Pappy wrote:
If my Cougars come up with a win against UCLA, this will be a lot easier.

The Cougs almost took down the mighty Cardinal...leading until late in the game and then losing in OT. Let's hope that they can finish the job against the Bruins on Sunday.

Don't count on it. Other than Lang (ACL) UCLA finally has all of its players back (suspensions). Plus, they won't have to put up with the conditons that they faced in Seattle, Fri night.

Yeah, but they're playing the best Pac-10 team in Washington!

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by chiefer on Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:57 pm

Ooops, UCLA 2-0 over the Cougs

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by ShipstadPilot11 on Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:29 pm

Darn it anyway.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by PurplePrideTrumpet on Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:26 pm

And Oregon goes down to ASU, leaving them at 9-10-1 and officially out of the running.

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Re: 2009 Bracket

Post by Auto-Pilot on Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:44 pm

Saw this from NCAA.com Division I Women's Soccer Blog:

November 3, 2009
A Message from the Chair

The pace is beginning to pick up for me and all of the national committee members as we prepare for selection weekend for the 2009 NCAA Division I Women's Soccer Championship. Our committee has been busy since September working with our respective regional committees to rank the top 10 teams in each region.

We have been meeting by teleconference every two weeks to update each other on how things are shaping up in the various regions - expanded this year to 8 as compared to six in previous years. The Pacific, South and Southeast regions have all looked very strong so far. It will be interesting to see any possible changes when we hold our last national committee call on November 5 before reporting to Indianapolis for selection weekend on November 7.

This time of year, conference tournaments play a major role in the selection process. With 64 bids to the women's championship available and 30 of those being held for automatic qualifying conferences, that leaves only 34 "at-large" bids. Bubble teams across the country will all be rooting for league favorites in these tournaments to maximize the number of at-large berths. Upsets in conference tournaments often decrease the number of available at-large berths when a team that would probably not have received a tournament bid wins their respective conference tournament and the accompanying automatic bid. Those same bubble teams can also use their conference tournament to improve their profile. Just last year, Penn State winning the Big Ten Tournament and Missouri winning the Big 12 Tournament had a positive impact on their selection and seeding.

When the committee does get behind closed doors in Indianapolis, the selection and seeding of teams for the championship will be driven by three primary criteria. The first is the team's RPI - which consists of their winning percentage and their strength of schedule, the second is their head-to-head results against other teams being considered for selection, and third is a comparison with other teams under consideration of their results against common opponents. The hardest call for the committee is in comparing teams with very similar profiles, but no head-to-head results and no common opponents. That is when we often have to turn to our secondary selection/seeding criteria which includes results against teams already selected for the tournament and late season performance (last 8 games).

We're looking forward to an exciting week of women's soccer as the NCAA Championship field begins taking shape, and the committee gets ready for the unveiling of the 64-team bracket on Monday, November 9 (8 p.m. ET, ESPNews).

Paul Bradshaw
Division I Women's Soccer Championship Committee Chair
Baylor Associate AD / Internal Affairs

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