Week 4 Polls (& RPI)

The phrase so-and-so's"rank is based on reputation and not performance" is a classic putdown -- I want it printed on a T-shirt. Thanks to all who do the legwork in this arcane world of rankings.

Albyn Jones' first 2009 ratings now are available, covering almost all games through September 6: http://soccerratings.com/index.php?title=Women%27s_NCAA_Division_I_Soccer_Ratings

Jones' ratings include recognition of past team history, so his ratings as of this time of year are more reliable than RPI ratings which do not recognize past history.

The problem with using historical data from last year is pretty dramatically demonstrated By Santa Clara's ranking in the Sept 7 rankings.

They were ranked 81, Notre Dame was ranked at 4, and Purdue was ranked at 13.

According to his system, the chances of SCU beating ND was about 1:44, and the chances of them beating Purdue was about 1:6

Yet they won both.

Our odds according to that ranking of beating TAMU, BTW, are about 12.55:1

I think they still have to play the game.

The Pilots a 12:1 shot? I'll get in on that action.

In a purely hypothetical, entertainment purposes only sense, of course...

PurplePrideTrumpet wrote:The Pilots a 12:1 shot? I'll get in on that action.

In a purely hypothetical, entertainment purposes only sense, of course...

Well, there would be bookies happy to take your money even if the rankings were more mature.

For one thing, that doesn't take into account the possibility of a tie, which I'm not sure I know how Albyn computes. It probably has to do with the statistical error (SE on his charts), but I have no idea exactly how. Those numbers a pretty high this early in the year. There is certainly some possibility of it, though.

PurplePrideTrumpet wrote:The Pilots a 12:1 shot? I'll get in on that action.

In a purely hypothetical, entertainment purposes only sense, of course...

I don't think I'd put down $12 for the chance of winning $1 for the A&M/UP game. A&M is a good team (held UNC scoreless for over 80 minutes). When teams are even somewhat closely matched, too many things can go wrong to be 92% confident of a victory, including

• a red card
  
• several UP players coming down with H1N1
  
• a flukey goal or two
  
• a bad ref call or two
  
• UP "off" day or A&M having an "on" day.

No kidding, eprof. A few years ago Spurs lost the last game of the season against West Ham after several of the players got sick. At first they thought it was a dodgy lasagna at the team hotel! but it turned out to be a more generic virus that just hit at the wrong time.

Almost at the halfway point in the season now. Team health is also a big X-factor at this point! Most are healthy and fit....except for Cloee and Cassi. Anyone hear of an ETA on Cloee's return? She's a gem! I was so looking forward to watching her against the Illini and Miami! I'd like TAMU to meet her too... ....but not at the expense of not having her come tournament time!

GO PILOTS!!!

Counting the weeks from when she and others said she's scheduled to come back, you might see Kassi at the Montana game. That might be a good game to ease her back in and see how she's doing.

But I'm sure they won't rush her. I think the goal is still the Tournament.