Games we should win...

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Games we should win...

Post by goldhelmet on Mon Jan 19, 2009 7:59 pm

OK - so we're sitting pretty good right now at 2-1, with the Gonzaga road game out of the way, and two wins over USF and SCU. These were crucial wins in the conference race, and could have major implications at the end of the season in tie-breaker situations. With the objective of finishing in the upper half of the conference this year, and securing a first round bye in the tournament - which I definitely think this team is capable of doing - here is the way I see the rest of UP's schedule breaking down in terms of games we should win, and games that are likely losses/but not impossible wins (I don't think there is a game on the rest of the schedule that UP could not win or pull an upset).

@ LMU - Should win.
@Pepperdine - Should win.
USD - will be tough, but should win.
SMC - likely loss, but I wouldn't rule out an upset.
Gonzaga - likely loss, but some chance for an upset.
@USF - should win. They just are not that good and this is usually a road venue that is not quite as tough as others.
@St. Marys - likely loss.
Pepperdine - Should win.
LMU - Should win.
@USD - probable loss.
@SCU - probable loss - Toso is just a very tough, tough place to get a road win.

If we win the "should win" games, that puts us at 8-6. I think 8-6 likely secures that 4th spot, or at least a tie for fourth. An upset win puts us at 9-5, which definitely would put us in 4th, possibly even 3rd if USD falters.

Now that I've gone through that little exercise, you should note that the unexpected pretty much always happens in the WCC, so everything I just said is pretty much useless. I think that's why they still play the games, isn't it? Basketball

I am certain of one thing. This should prove to be one of the more entertaining conference races in a while, and having the tournament at a neutral site - not to mention that it's Las Vegas - will prove to be good for the conference.

goldhelmet
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Re: Games we should win...

Post by Stonehouse on Mon Jan 19, 2009 8:04 pm

I think you got it just right, Goldhelmet. I agree with all your should win/likely losses.

One note... San Diego already beat USF and SCU on the road, which means they are definitely in the drivers seat in the battle for third place. Unless we can match that feat (beating those two teams on the road), getting third is going to be really tough no matter what we do against them. So we've got to really hope that San Diego stumbles somewhere or that we can sneak one away from SMC/GU.

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Re: Games we should win...

Post by goldhelmet on Mon Jan 19, 2009 8:14 pm

Stonehouse - You said it earlier today. The key will be sweeping LMU and Pepperdine - a complete grand slam...4-0.

Those four wins would put us at 6, meaning we likely just need two more wins to finish fourth. If we win those four games, I like our chances.

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