Predictions?

Poopdeck Pappy wrote:If I understand it correctly, there is only a 75% chance that the RPI will predict the actual result of a contest (am I right about this UPSF?). Therefore, the outcome of the game in Palo Alto certainly ain't a done deal by any means. It should be close but, like in '02, the Pilots can come out on top.

You are right when we look at all games: the RPI is correct about 75% of the time. However, in a more detailed breakdown, when teams have RPIs as close as Portland's and Stanford's, the RPI has no ability to predict the winner. It's correct about 50% of the time and incorrect about 50% of the time. The same is true for the "non-conference" RPI, in which Portland is ranked higher than Stanford.

Really, with teams this close, whatever rating system you're looking at, you can't predict who's going to win based on statistics. It's going to come down to what Garrett said and, in my opinion, intangibles. I think the intangibles are on the Pilots' side, but we'll just have to see.

GO PILOTS!

Albyn Jones, the other rating system I've been looking at doesn't help a whole lot either. Taken straight up, UP has a 56% chance of beating Stanford, and with home field, Stanford has a 55% chance of beating us. The complication arises in the Standard error in the two team's statistics, which average out to about 30% SE in this statistical range for each team. That's what makes this contest so interesting. It's statistically about as close as any game in the playoffs has been.


One thing the statistics don't account for is the intangibles. I really believe UP has an edge here because the people in the program understand all that goes in to playing in the playoffs. They have won it before, both coaches and the Seniors, and that carries down to the rest of the team.

So my money is all on Purple.

I'll predict UP winning 2-1 in A thriller.

I'm visiting brothers in Greensboro for T-giving this weekend, which is really terrible timing - Greensboro is a short ride from Cary, where UP WILL be playing next weekend, but after I go back up to NY.

SciFi wrote:
I have no doubts about this team. Not even being down the players they are. They'll find a way to get it done. Period.

I love your undying confidence, SciFi. I'll try to remember it tonight as I am watching the match as a nervous wreck.

I have always had this same confidence in the Pilots. Year after year. But this year it is very difficult given the realities facing this team. One thing I have learned over the years is this: the Pilots will dominate most teams during the regular season and early playoff rounds. But once they get to the Quarters, Semi's, Finals - they are usually facing teams as good or better than they are. These are the elite few in the country, and thank goodness we are in that special group annually. When we do lose in the playoffs, it's almost always to an elite team.

So should the Pilots be fortunate enough to play 3 more matches, which would put them in the Finals, they are going to have to really do their magic to get by Stanford tonight, and then mow down ND/FSU next Friday.

Any of the final 8 teams are probably good enough to win it all. Although it has been stated many times before, that the creme de la creme, from the Rpi's and national polls standpoint, are the BIG FIVE this season: ND, UCLA, UNC, Stanford and the Pilots. I think the champion will come from the FIVE - although a Cinderella always has an outside chance, if they are playing incredibly, both mentally and physically.

[quote="FANatic"]

SciFi wrote:
Any of the final 8 teams are probably good enough to win it all. Although it has been stated many times before, that the creme de la creme, from the Rpi's and national polls standpoint, are the BIG FIVE this season: ND, UCLA, UNC, Stanford and the Pilots. I think the champion will come from the FIVE - although a Cinderella always has an outside chance, if they are playing incredibly, both mentally and physically.

I'd have to put FSU into the mix here. They have considerable experience deep in the playoffs in recent times, including victories against some top-flight schools.

I do agree that Duke and A&M are very unlikely to win it all. (Of course, that's what I said about USC last year at this time.)

fan from afar wrote:I'll predict UP winning 2-1 in A thriller.

I'm visiting brothers in Greensboro for T-giving this weekend, which is really terrible timing - Greensboro is a short ride from Cary, where UP WILL be playing next weekend, but after I go back up to NY.

You know, they're playing a game at UNC right now.... you should have gathered everyone up and headed over there!

Holy cow! 1-0 Texas!

NC ties it up, dang.

Runner Girl - Have I met you before somewhere? You sound familiar.

In case anyone is wondering why there's a diehard Pilots fan in upstate New York, it's because his daughter lives in Portland and got him hooked on the best college soccer team around!!

And just how do you happen to know all that, Runner Girl?

fan - just a guess, (whispering). But methinks runner girl is your daughter!

Sorry to interrupt. (I seem to do that from time to time...)

Fanatic, I guess it's OK to interrupt this conversation, which must be truly fascinating to everyone else. she has not actually verified yet that she is in fact my offspring. Methinks that if she isn't, I feel pretty foolish.

By the way - belated congrats on your 1000 posts. Do I get anything for passing 50?