Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

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Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by FANatic on Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:05 pm

Guess who's number one? Why Ashley Thompson, UCLA, of course! Mad

Ashley's allowed just 3 goals in 16 appearances. Kelsey has given up only 4 goals in 16 appearances also.

Ashley's GAA, (goals against average) is also #1 @ 0.196. Kelsey's GAA is 2nd @ 0.248.

One important note: Kelsey has played 70 more minutes than Ashley.

GK NCAA DIV 1 GAA

Can someone with a brain please explain how they figured GAA, being as each keeper has played different minutes.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Geezaldinho on Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:44 pm

FANatic wrote:
Can someone with a brain please explain how they figured GAA, being as each keeper has played different minutes.

Near as I can tell they normalize the data for 90 minute games. That makes a 110 minute overtime game worth 1.222 games.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by KFTC on Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:45 pm

Take the total number of minutes played and divide by 90 (minutes in a regular game). Then take the total number of goals against and divide it by the the number you just solved for.

Thompson: 1378 minutes/90 = 15.31
3GA/15.31 = 0.1959 GAA

Davis: 1449 minutes/90 = 16.1
4GA/16.1 = 0.2484 GAA

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Auto Pilot on Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:51 pm

Here is the formula for your convenience:
# of goals against x 90 minutes per game divided by minutes played= GAA

Ashley Thompson
3 x 90 = 270 divide by 1379 =.196

Kelsey Davis
4 x 90 = 360 divde by 1449 = .248

Hope this helps.

BTW unless you keep doing well one bad game can send you sliding down the rankings FAST. Kelsey had a .2 going something last year and the UCLA game send her down to number 9 I think.


Last edited by Auto Pilot on Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:45 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Auto Pilot on Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:54 pm

KFTC you beat me I guess i owe you a beverage.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Geezaldinho on Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:03 pm

But mine was understandable. I get a beverage too.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Auto Pilot on Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:06 pm

Geez I owe you several beverages. The Brazilain Soccer Name game kept me entertained all weekend not to mention the rest of your insights. And thanks to FANatic for asking the question. I hadn't had the calculator feature out in a while.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by up7587 on Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:33 pm

All right! Finally, some math on this site! That's more like it! bounce And beverages, too. drunken

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Geezaldinho on Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:38 pm

99 bottles of beer......

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by DaTruRochin on Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:40 pm

Sorry Geez, probaby more like 85, some unknown person may or may not have taken some while you weren't looking....

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by FANatic on Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:17 am

Thanks everyone! I now get it!

This does gives me an extra dose of confidence going into the playoffs. We know we have a GK who is going to be very difficult for any team to score on. But also, we know by the number of saves and SOG, that we have have a very solid defense in front of her.

Michelle O. moving to holding mid to replace Keelin we know is a risk we must take. However, people have talked about Michelle's poise, calmness and leadership all season. Does anyone really think she is suddenly going to be a liability? My money says she will rise to the occasion and excel.

Similiarly, Kassi and Michelle O. have seemingly formed a brick wall at center back. But Korie is playing back there now with Kassi, and Korie apparently is continuing to improve. Kassi is rough, tough and has the attitude you want in a leader on the back line. She's afraid of no one, and Korie is also a big and tough defender. Kristen is the back up at center back, and hopefully any playing time she can pick up is certainly very valuable.

At outside back, it seems unanimous on this board that Jessica Tsao is all-conference worthy. Megan Sweeney is solid but doesn't seem to have the speed she had two years ago before she missed last year with a knee injury. She also left the last match against St. Mary's early in the game and never returned. I don't believe we have heard if she is hurt or not. Emma Nelson played in her spot for I think her longest stint of the season. I haven't seen Emma play or heard much talk about her. I do know coming to the Pilots, she was advertised as being a speed demon, which is a positive for that position.

For all of you out there, particularly those of you that have seen the team play a lot this season, I await your comments.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by KFTC on Tue Oct 28, 2008 1:49 pm

But mine was understandable. I get a beverage too.

Understandable, sure. But not completely accurate. tongue

I've never seen the formula you gave before, Auto Pilot. It's an interesting method. I got mine from an old NCAA statistics manual when I was trying to figure out how they figured GAA about 10 years ago. I'll still take you up on that drink though. Give me Beer!

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Auto Pilot on Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:09 pm

I picked up that formula from a baskeball calc and adjusted the 60 minutes to ninety minutes. I like yours better. I think I got a little wordy about it. Same result though. drunken

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by A_Fan on Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:34 pm

Fanatic, I agree with your assessment for the playoffs. Concerning Emma, I have seen her play when she's been in at the home games and she seems to have what it takes to be successful at her position. Her only downside is her lack of playing time which is understandable with the skilled players ahead of her on the depth chart. I remember during the season ticket holders pre-season scrimmage on one particular play she was defending Michelle E. and was with her stride for stride down the left side which would seem to confirm the speed you mentioned.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by PurplePrideTrumpet on Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:58 pm

KFTC and Auto Pilot have it right. This is like a conversion problem in a freshman chemistry class.
We have goals allowed (GA) and total minutes played, so:

(GA/minutes)*(90 minutes/game)

The minutes cancel and you get GA/game, or GAA.

I think it should go to four decimal places since we have four significant digits in the minutes played figure (the leading zero in the GAA is not significant).

(I like early English literature as much as the next poster, but I figured math and science were fair game, too...)

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by KFTC on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:17 pm

Yes PPT, but you have to do the part of the equation where you divide the total number of minutes played by minutes in a game...that way it accounts for the extra minutes for overtimes and the GAA is precisely accurate instead of being a close estimation. If you only divided goals against by number of games played (in Kelsey's case, 4/16 =0.25), it wouldn't account for the minutes accumulated in overtime because the 16 assumes only 90 minute games. The extra OT minutes lower her GAA to 0.248.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Stonehouse on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:28 pm

By the way... if you go to NCAAsports.com's page for women's soccer, there is a nice pic of Sophie with the gleaming white Chiles Center (with P!) in the background:

http://www.ncaa.com/sports/w-soccer/ncaa-w-soccer-body.html

Will Crew... great photographer that kid!


Last edited by Stonehouse on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:35 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Geezaldinho on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:29 pm

KFTC wrote:
But mine was understandable. I get a beverage too.

Understandable, sure. But not completely accurate. tongue

Well, too late. I already drank the beverage. Most of the other 85, too.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Trenchcoat Wally on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:31 pm

Hey Stonehouse. That picture is wild. It looks like the "P" is floating in the sky.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by KFTC on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:32 pm

Um, what exactly is flying into your smiley face mouth, there? It's a little weird how it shakes and rattles and then flies on in there.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Stonehouse on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:36 pm

ANYWAY... the real reason I was on NCAAsports.com... another stat that maybe is a bit more telling about a keeper's effectiveness is save percentage. What this calculates is the percentage of shots on goal that a goalie saves. Now, I think we've said before that not all saves are equal... a diving tip over the bar counts the same as picking up a slow roller, but it's the best we can do. What makes this stat interesting is that it takes the defense out of the equation. While GAA basically just shows how many goals a team allows, this shows how many of the shots on goal are saved. Here's the top 10:


1UCLA5330.946
2Western Ky.8680.915
3Radford101110.902
4Bowling Green112130.896
5St. John's (N.Y.)90110.891
6Texas7390.890
7Portland3240.889
Texas St.7290.889
9Columbia79110.878
10Princeton4360.878

Even better... here are the individual stats:

RankName, TeamClGamesSavesGAGoalie Min. PlydTeam MinPct.
1Ashley Thompson, UCLASr.16493137914910.942
2Libby Stout, Western Ky.Fr.17847163216340.923
3Kristin Russell, St. John's (N.Y.)Fr.17777154017330.917
4Mandi Mawyer, Texas St.Jr.12505103815510.909
5Lisa Lubke, RadfordFr.14849129014700.903
6Dianna Pfenninger, TexasSr.17729161516360.889
7Alexa Arsenault, Bowling GreenSo.1910313168917810.888
8Kelsey Davis, PortlandJr.16314144914490.886
9Meghan Berlingo, FloridaSo.1136590616670.878
10Alyssa Pont, PrincetonSo.13436118812330.878

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Geezaldinho on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:43 pm

That stat might tell you only two things

1) you play teams that are weak shots

2) the only shots your opponents can get off are from long range.

I have trouble believing that Radford and Bowling green are recuiting better keepers than we are, so I think that might be the case there.

Kelsey is certainly getting a lot of benefit from #2, as is UCLA's keeper.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Geezaldinho on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:44 pm

Stonehouse wrote:By the way... if you go to NCAAsports.com's page for women's soccer, there is a nice pic of Sophie with the gleaming white Chiles Center (with P!) in the background:

http://www.ncaa.com/sports/w-soccer/ncaa-w-soccer-body.html

Will Crew... great photographer that kid!

WOW! a clean sweep!!
The member of the Canadian National Team netted three goals, including both game-winners, in victories over San Francisco and Saint Mary’s, earning a plethora of awards, including WCC Player of the Week. Schmidt was also named to the Top Drawer Soccer, Soccer America and Soccer Buzz National Teams of the Week for her contributions.


Did you notice they got "plethora" in there?

I gotta think this website is rubbing off on people.

The dome looks nice, too.


Last edited by Geezaldinho on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:49 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Geezaldinho on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:45 pm

KFTC wrote:Um, what exactly is flying into your smiley face mouth, there? It's a little weird how it shakes and rattles and then flies on in there.

PORK RINDS!


MMmmmm... good. Little sacks-O-fat.

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Re: Kelsey 2nd Nationally In Goals Against

Post by Auto Pilot on Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:48 pm

The problem with this statistic is that it does not take into account the scorekeepers objectivity/bias on what is considered a sog and/or a save. It used to be that anything on frame that would have gone in if the keeper didn't get it was a save. Not anymore. It is left up to the subjective mind of Scorer to decide if it was enough of a threat on goal to be counted as a save.

This stat also doesn't take into acount how much a keeper actually plays in the defense other than a back stop. I don;t think I would trade either of our keepers for any of the top ten list you have there. Though I would concede AT is very good and I have seen her play.

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