10/12/2008 National Rankings

NSCAA Rankings

Pilots stay at #3 again this week. Problem is UCLA is just ONE point behind us. I assume if we both continue to win, UCLA will pass us because they are the only team to beat us thus far this season.

Soccer Times

Remain at #5.

Top Drawer Soccer

Still at #3.

Soccer Buzz

Remain at #5.

No one above us is losing, I guess, so we stay put!

Which team should we be rooting for to beat UCLA and have the least impact on the Pilots RPI?

UPSF

Isn't the best outcome for us to have a team that we have beaten beat UCLA?

So UW or USC.

Well, UW got hammered 4-0 by the Bruins, I would think a case could be made for Stanford to win out beating both UCLA and USC would help us, because then we would only be competing with 1 top ranked PAC 10 school rather than 2-3 depending on how they beat each other.

A_Fan wrote:Which team should we be rooting for to beat UCLA and have the least impact on the Pilots RPI?

The answer isn't completely clear to me.

If a team we have played -- USC or Oregon -- beats UCLA, then so far as the strength of schedule elements of our RPI are concerned, I think it's a wash. The winning team will get a win attached to its record and UCLA will get a loss and the two pretty much will balance out. (They won't quite balance out if the two teams have played different numbers of games.) That being the case, the team we want to win is Oregon since we are not competing with Oregon for a seed and we are competing with USC. Maybe an Oregon win and a UCLA/USC tie would be the best, since the tie would hurt both UCLA's and USC's winning percentages; but our preference partly depends on how UCLA and USC do in their other games. If one of them is going to lose another game, then that's probably the team we would want to win the UCLA/USC game so they both end up with another loss.

If a team we have not played -- most likely Stanford -- beats UCLA, that will do some damage to the strength of schedule elements of our RPI since UCLA's winning percentage will decline. On the other hand, as already pointed out on this thread, the loss will hurt the first element of UCLA's RPI, its winning percentage. Exactly how this would pan out for UCLA is not completely clear at this point. If UCLA were to beat Stanford, that might be better for the Pilots. It would help the Pilots' strength of schedule RPI elements. And, Stanford has a higher RPI than UCLA so although it would elevate UCLA's RPI it would diminish Stanford's; and at present that would seem preferable since Stanford presently is more a threat to the Pilots' seeding position than is UCLA. On the other hand, if Stanford were to beat UCLA, head-to-head results might come back to haunt the Pilots through an argument that UCLA beat the Pilots and Stanford beat UCLA, so Stanford therefore must be better than the Pilots notwithstanding the RPI.

The thing that works for the Pilots is that there are three top teams in the Pac 10 that must play each other. If the Pilots can win out, we can watch the three Pac 10 teams beat up on each other in the hopes that only one will emerge with an RPI sufficient to get a #1 seed. If we hadn't played UCLA and USC, and if we assume that one of the three will have a high enough RPI to get a #1 seed, then at this point I would be rooting for Stanford, since UCLA and USC are farther back in the RPI and their losses would put them farther out of the picture. (The one problem with this would be the UCLA win over the Pilots, which might trump the RPI -- or might not.) What is not clear, however, is how the benefit to the Pilots from UCLA and USC losses to Stanford would balance against the impact of the UCLA and USC losses on the Pilots' RPI, given that the Pilots played UCLA and USC.

Another scenario is that the three teams tie each other. That would give each team 2 additional ties, which would equate to 1 loss for each of them in RPI terms. It also would better for the Pilots' RPI than UCLA and USC losing to Stanford.

And, of course, there's the possibility of their suffering losses to other Pac 10 teams.

I think that my brain just fell out of my ear... All I know is I want whatever result will put playoff games at Merlo.

The only playoff game I have been to was the ND game a couple years ago... WOW ELECTRIC!

I take that back, Tennessee... which also was electric, but not quite as much as the ND game.

aleppiek wrote:
I think that my brain just fell out of my ear... All I know is I want whatever result will put playoff games at Merlo.

That just made my day, aleppiek. I'm still laughing over that one!

(Ya know, I've never been to a Pilot Soccer Playoff game. Maybe I can get the team to get me in a match before I have to say au revoir.)

FANatic, as someone who (inadvertently) partly used your name, I pledge to find a way to take you to a Pilots playoff game. I suspect others will agree to help. I think you definitely need to get to one before you move on to other interests (so to speak). All I'll require, when the time comes, is a place to pick you up and a description of whom to pick up. (Or will your avatar be sufficient?)

The only playoff game I have been to was the ND game a couple years ago... WOW ELECTRIC!

I agree Aleppiek. The 2005 playoff run at Merlo was the most ELECTRIC games I've ever attended. Most of the games sold out in a matter of minutes! I remember being so DEJECTED and SHOCKED that I couldn't couldn't get tickets when they went on sale...especially for that ND game!

But...I was determined to be there! I found a "ticket broker" on eBay and paid a premium price to get 2 tickets....$50 each!! I was even in Seattle for the Thanksgiving weekend but drove back down for the game! It was soooo worth it! Beating ND....our sister school...who was a nemesis at the time....literally "owned" us in the head to head series!! That made the win even SWEETER!! The 2005 buyout was also the primary reason for my decision to become a season ticket holder. It's been nice to be able to guarantee myself a chance at a couple of playoff tickets ahead of time.

As for our collegue FANatic....if you can somehow arrange to get to Merlo again...I would love to nominate you to be "Pilot for a Day".....I'm serious!! Who's not more deserving of that? It would be a blast!! As UPSF noted above...based on your Avatar...you'd wouldn't be hard to spot on the pitch!

GO PILOTS!!!